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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $387.51EOD only
Max Pain
$382.50
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$20.55
5.3% from close
Price Gap
-5.01
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
48
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.77
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 22, 2026 close
TSLA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish-to-neutral bias: TSLA below MP with negative dealer GEX and elevated IV, so expect chop with downside bias toward 348–366 over 1–2 weeks unless strong sector lift arrives.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
Pre-computed score plus negative GEX, spot < clustered MPs, elevated front-month IV.
Supports: Negative dealer GEX; spot below MP cluster; front-month IV rich
Conflicts: Mixed retail flow; broader market must weaken to drive large downside move
⚠️Negative GEX ~-67M vs DEX +122M shares → dealer hedging likely to accentuate intraday moves
📌Max pain cluster at $385–$390 acting as near-term resistance
🧭Gamma flip ~300 far below spot — limited natural gamma support near-term

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated vs typical, front-month rich relative to VIX and sector; puts priced with premium.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Net short dealer gamma (GEX negative); gamma flip ~300, so convexity risk concentrated well below spot.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed premium flow; net positioning and DEX/GEX tilt bearish via dealer hedging.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot sits below clustered MPs (~385–390), creating sticky resistance and downside pin risk.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Persistent negative GEX, sustained elevated IV, and spot under MP cluster suggest multi-week downside bias

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$366.12$381.32
Range 366–381; dealer hedging may push toward lower bound
Next 1 week
$357.75$389.70
Bias 358–390; 385–390 expected resistance
Next 2 weeks
$348.20$399.25
Base bias to 348–390; 399 reachable only on strong market/firm catalyst that overcomes 385–390 resistance

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $385 (2026-04-24); $390 (2026-04-27); $390 (2026-04-29)
EM guardrails: 2d $366.12/$381.32; 1w $357.75/$389.70
Support: $348.20
Resistance: $385.00 · $399.25 · $400.00
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,469 (19.7% below spot)
Structural: EM guardrails 2d 366.12/381.32; 1w 357.75/389.70; support 348.2; resistance 385–390; gamma flip ~300.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-67.3M

DEX: +122.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,469 (19.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX ~-67.3M (net short gamma); DEX +122.4M shares; gamma flip ~300; puts concentrated ~19.7% below spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is rich vs VIX and sector peers, especially on puts — raises cost of buying protection and favors defined-risk structures.

Term structure: Front-month IV elevated with modest term slope; weekly expiries around the MP cluster (next two weekly series) show kinks where dealers hedge.

Skew: Put-heavy skew: consider defined-risk bearish put spreads or protective buys at weekly expiries near MP: e.g., sell 1–2x 385/365 (1–2 wk) put spread or buy 1x 345–350 OTM puts expiring on the weekly where MP pins cluster to hedge gamma-driven dips.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium ~ -58.5M (net paid); trade-level prints show concentrated aggressive same-day call buys, indicating buyer-driven call demand despite aggregate premium sign.

Directional prints: 35 call 372.5 ITM 2026-04-24 — Huge same-day buy flow (58k vol, vol/oi 71%). Likely aggressive call buys or spreads; directional bullish gamma into expiry; lean: buyers. 37.1 call 382.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — Very large volume (61k) with high OI base; points to dealer hedging short calls -> underlying upward pressure; read: buy-side interest. 35.5 call 377.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — ~58k vol concentrated near spot; consistent buying across strikes indicating short-delta hedging by sellers; bullish leaning.

Unusual: 68.8 call 482.5 OTM 2026-04-29 — Very high vol/oi 94.7 with tiny OI — likely speculative/lottery long calls or structured flow; tail bullish ticket. 168.8 put 150 OTM 2026-05-01 — Large volume with extreme IV; likely long-tail downside protection or volatility buy; defensive.

Risks & Catalysts

!Broader market rally (SPY/QQQ reversal) lifting TSLA above 385–390
!Positive firm-specific news or earnings surprise
!Rapid IV compression or dealer flow reversal reducing downside momentum

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-05-15 $350.00/$340.00 put spread
Why now: Market/flow signals show downside bias, elevated near-term IV; defined-risk put spread leverages directional move while capping cost.
Large upside rally or IV collapse erodes edge
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-05-08 $360.00 put
Why now: Direct way to capture rapid downside and skewed protection while keeping position size flexible; elevated IV still offers payoff if move occurs.
IV compression and lack of move before expiry
Put diagonalModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-15 $365.00 put / buy 2026-06-18 $360.00 put
Why now: Near-term dealers/net premium and GEX suggest rich short-dated puts; calendar captures term-structure and reduces upfront cost for multi-week bias.
Sharp spot move or realized vol spike in short leg causing large short-dated losses

Top Plays

#1
Put diagonal (sell May15 365 / buy Jun18 360)
Sell 2026-05-15 $365.00 put / buy 2026-06-18 $360.00 put
Short near-term put reduces upfront cost and time-decays into bias; longer leg keeps downside exposure into multi-week move.
Why this play: Expresses multi-week bearish bias while collecting short-dated premium to offset cost and exploit rich near-term puts.
Debit: $5.40-$6.60
Max loss: $6.60
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Close or roll short leg if IV compresses or price drops below 348; widen or unwind if sector lift pushes above 385.
Traders wanting directional downside exposure with limited cost and willingness to manage roll risk.
#2
Bear put spread (buy May15 350/340)
Buy 2026-05-15 $350.00/$340.00 put spread
Pays off on moderate drop; benefits from elevated IV and limited capital outlay vs long put.
Why this play: Defined-risk way to play expected 1–2 week downside toward 348–366 with capped loss and decent return if move occurs.
Debit: $1.94-$2.37
Max loss: $2.37
BE: $347.63
Mgmt: Take profits near lower bound or roll/downsize if momentum stalls; cut if TSLA >385.
Risk-averse directional traders seeking capped loss.
#3
Long May8 360 put
Buy 2026-05-08 $360.00 put
Direct directional/protection play for sharp moves before May 8; large max gain if move occurs.
Why this play: Highest asymmetric payoff to capture rapid, large downside but expensive with elevated IV.
Debit: $6.10-$7.45
Max loss: $7.45
BE: $352.55
Mgmt: Manage gamma decay closely; sell into rebound or hedge with call buys if IV spikes or time decay accelerates.
Traders prioritizing maximum downside exposure and willing to pay premium.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF TSLA <385 and >348 within next 1–10 trading days (downside tilt) → THEN put diagonal: sell 2026-05-15 365 put / buy 2026-06-18 360 put (target entry mid 5.4–6.6) — size per risk limits
IFIF TSLA trades ≤366 and >348 AND momentum = (intraday drop ≥3% OR 2-day cumulative decline ≥5% OR price closes below 10-day MA) → THEN bear put spread: buy 2026-05-15 350/340 put spread (entry 1.94–2.37) — defined-risk play
IFIF TSLA gaps or drops through 366 with strong downward momentum (single-day drop >5% or 3-day cumulative >10%) → THEN long put: buy 2026-05-08 360 put (entry 6.1–7.45) for asymmetric payoff
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF IV30 falls ≥15% from trade entry OR IV30 drops ≥4 vol points within 3 trading days OR options orderflow shows net call-buy volume >60% of total on a single day (dealer/flow flip) OR TSLA rallies above 385 → THEN trim or roll short leg of put diagonal, reduce size or close bear put spread; consider selling positions into strength
Exit Triggers
EXITIF TSLA ≤348 (breach of support/invalidation for diagonal) OR trade P&L hits profit ≥40% OR unrealized loss ≥35% (for spreads/diagonals) OR long-put profit ≥200% → THEN close/realize profits on bearish structures and reassess bias; if TSLA >385 persistently for 5 trading days, exit all bearish setups

Tactical Summary

Bearish-to-neutral multi-week bias: expect chop with downside tilt toward 348–366. Primary: put diagonal; defined-risk: bear put spread; crash hedge: long put. Invalidate on sustained move >385 (5d) or IV/orderflow flip. Use explicit P/L rules (take profits ≥40%, cut losses ≥35%; long-put target ≥200%).
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on April 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.