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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $392.50EOD only
Max Pain
$375.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$23.27
5.9% from close
Price Gap
-17.50
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
25
Low premium
P/C OI
0.77
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 20, 2026 close
TSLA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Mildly bearish-to-neutral near-term: spot sits above max pain and dealers/net gamma are pinning price into the $380–$390 max-pain band, so expect range-bound to slight downside pressure unless a catalyst drives a breakout.

Confidence:
6 / 10
Base 6.0; positive: dealer gamma pinning and proximity to MP; negative: elevated IV and mixed flow may widen moves.
Supports: Dealer GEX, proximity to max-pain strikes ($380–$390), short-dated OI concentration (2–7d).
Conflicts: High IV and mixed flow can produce breakout volatility; broader market weakness adds downside risk.
📌Max-pain cluster at $380–$390 with short-dated pins (4/24=2d, 4/27=5d, 4/29=7d)
🧲Dealer positioning: +$82.4M GEX (~10% of listed GEX) and +121.3M DEX shares (~8% of option notional delta) — material but not overwhelming
⚠️IV is elevated vs VIX (~19.5) — risk of rapid repricing if flow shifts

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High IV vs recent baseline; short-dated premia rich around next expiries (2–7d).
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning regime: net positive GEX concentrated at $380–$390; reported GEX equals roughly +10% of listed GEX capacity; gamma flip sits near ~$300 well below spot.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow: no dominant directional premium sweep; short-dated OI concentration (major expiries 2d/5d/7d) supports temporary pinning but limits conviction.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot ~1.7% above midpoint and within the $380–$390 MP cluster; gravitation toward that band likely while short-dated expiries settle.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Concentrated short-dated expiries (4/24,4/27,4/29 = 2/5/7d) and sizeable dealer hedging create near-term pinning rather than a structural shift.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$363.77$409.07
Likely contained in $364–$409; expiries in 2d (4/24) concentrate pin risk.
Next 1 week
$361.97$410.87
Range-bound with tests of $400 resistance; expiries at 5d and 7d sustain pin pressure.
Next 2 weeks
$356.50$416.35
If market weakness continues, downside to $356–$380 becomes more probable after short-dated expiries clear.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $380 (2026-04-24); $390 (2026-04-27); $390 (2026-04-29)
EM guardrails: 2d $363.77/$409.07; 1w $361.97/$410.87
Support: $380.00 · $356.50
Resistance: $400.00 · $410.00 · $416.35
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,564 (22.4% below spot)
Structural: 2d range 363.77/409.07; 1w range 361.97/410.87; supports 380, 356.5; resistances 400, 410, 416.35; max-pain pins $380 (4/24=2d), $390 (4/27=5d, 4/29=7d); gamma flip ~300.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+82.4M

DEX: +121.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,564 (22.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: +82.4M GEX and +121.3M DEX shares concentrated at $380–$390; that GEX represents roughly ~10% of listed GEX magnitude and DEX equals ~8% of option delta/notional — large enough to bias pinning into the shown expiries (2/5/7d) but removable if heavy directional flow arrives; gamma flip ~ $300.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TSLA IV is rich vs broad-market VIX (~19.5), implying elevated option premia — favors premium sellers but raises fast-move risk if flow flips.

Term structure: Elevated short-dated IV with clear kinks at near expiries (4/24,4/27,4/29 = 2/5/7d); front-end carries most of the premium.

Skew: Put-heavy OI below spot creates skew; actionable idea: sell overpriced near-dated skew where dealer pinning may reduce realized vol risk, but only size against elevated IV and possible tail risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium: ~-52.2M (net premium received — net selling of options), implying overall sell-pressure while flow ratios show a modest put tilt (volume P/C ~0.91, OI P/C ~0.76).

Directional prints: 70.5 call 390 OTM 2026-04-24 — 65.6k call print — sizable bullish signal if buy, but could be short-covering or a leg of a larger spread/straddle; treat as ambiguous directional-plus-hedge. 69.5 put 390 ITM 2026-04-24 — 74.8k put print — suggests downside protection or bearish bets, yet may be matched with calls (straddle/strangle) or block trades; consider as potential hedged position. 69.7 put 392.5 ITM 2026-04-24 — 28.2k put print — reinforces short-dated downside hedging flow but could reflect spread activity rather than pure directional buying.

Unusual: 57.1 put 397.5 ITM 2026-04-27 — 4.9k vol vs 220 OI (V/OI ~22.4) — outsized; likely urgent hedging or a block/structured trade, not necessarily unilateral bearish buying. 72.1 put 422.5 ITM 2026-04-24 — 2.35k vol vs 112 OI (V/OI ~21.0) — notable; could be directional or part of multi-leg positioning. 70.2 call 385 ITM 2026-04-24 — 37.7k call print notable vs OI — large call flow concurrent with heavy puts suggests mixed pinning or hedged/block trades rather than pure one-sided buying.

Risks & Catalysts

!Broader market downside accelerating (SPY/QQQ weakness) forcing breach of pin range
!Earnings/corporate news or macro data causing rapid IV re-pricing
!Dealer hedging unwind if spot moves quickly away from pinned strikes

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Iron condorModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-08 $370.00/$340.00 put wing and $395.00/$430.00 call wing
Why now: Market/flow shows net selling and dealers pinning into 380–390; defined-risk wings collect premium while limiting tails.
Gap risk on large move or market sell-off widening IV.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-05-08 $365.00/$340.00 put spread
Why now: Mildly bearish-to-neutral near-term but net premium receipt and pinning support selling OTM puts for yield.
Rapid downside move or IV spike causing assignment risk.
Call diagonalModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-08 $395.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $455.00 call
Why now: Near-term vol rich around events and dealers suppress spot into pin; sell short-dated calls and buy back-month to benefit if price holds.
Strong upward breakout inflating short-term losses before calendar benefit; roll cost if IV collapses.
Short strangleConditional
Sell 2026-05-08 $370.00 put + sell $410.00 call
Why now: Flow shows net selling and pinning; if spot remains in band, premium decay benefits seller while defined monitoring manages risk.
Open-ended tail risk on events or market shock; requires hedges/adjustments.

Top Plays

#1
Defined-risk iron condor
Sell 2026-05-08 $370.00/$340.00 put wing and $395.00/$430.00 call wing
Sell wings around pinned band to harvest theta while limiting downside/upside with defined risk.
Why this play: Matches dealer pin into $380–$390; collects premium with capped tail risk.
Credit: $14.13-$17.28
Max loss: $17.72
BE: 352.72 / 412.28
Mgmt: Close or roll if spot breaches wings or IV re-prices; tighten if market-wide sell-off begins.
Traders wanting income with finite risk and margin efficiency.
#2
Call diagonal (short near, long back)
Sell 2026-05-08 $395.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $455.00 call
Sell the May 8 $395 call and buy the June back-month $455 to monetize front-month decay while keeping limited upside exposure.
Why this play: Exploits rich short-dated vol and dealer suppression; asymmetric upside protection.
Credit: $4.57-$5.58
Max loss: $0.01
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Trim short leg or roll if spot runs >~$395; hold long call as hedge or to flip to a calendar if IV collapses.
Vol sellers who want directional protection and lower capital at risk.
#3
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-08 $365.00/$340.00 put spread
Sell May 8 $365/$340 put spread to collect premium with limited risk below strike.
Why this play: Income from OTM put selling aligns with mild neutral-to-bearish bias and net premium receipt.
Credit: $4.53-$5.53
Max loss: $19.47
BE: $359.47
Mgmt: Buy back and reassess if spot approaches the short strike (~$365) or if IV spikes materially; consider rolling down or widening the spread.
Yield-seeking traders accepting larger defined loss if breach occurs.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot is pinned 380–390 into earnings AND iron-condor mid-premium between $14.13–$17.28 AND front-month IV rank ≤60% → THEN enter s1: sell 2026-05-08 370/340 put wing and 395/430 call wing; target fill at or better than midpoint price (execute if offered price ≤ midpoint) and limit slippage to 1.0× bid-ask spread
IFIF spot ≤395 AND front/back IV skew (30d front IV ÷ 60d back IV) ≥1.15 AND front-month IV rank ≥65% → THEN enter s3: sell 2026-05-08 $395 call and buy 2026-06-18 $455 call for net credit/debit within $4.57–$5.58; accept fills at midpoint or better (price ≤ midpoint) only
IFIF spot >365 and holding above 356.5 support AND put-side IV rank 50–75% → THEN enter s2: sell 2026-05-08 $365/$340 put spread for $4.53–$5.53 net credit; execute at midpoint or better (price ≥ midpoint for credit) with max allowed slippage 1.0× spread
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF spot <356.5 (s2/s1 invalidate) OR spot >416.35 (s3/s1 invalidate) OR front-month IV rank >80% → THEN adjustments: (a) buy back losing short leg if unrealized loss >30% of max potential profit; (b) tighten wings by moving long wings 1 strike closer (10–15 pts) and reduce position size 50%; (c) or roll down/up one expiration and one strike if liquidity present; prefer fills at midpoint or better
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot closes outside 356.5–416.35 for 2 consecutive sessions OR earnings/catalyst resolves → THEN close all event-positioned trades at midpoint or better; if fills unavailable, use limit within 1.5× bid-ask spread

Tactical Summary

Mildly bearish-to-neutral event plan: harvest front-month premium via defined-risk iron-condor, call diagonal, or put credit spread. Use explicit IV-rank and skew thresholds, midpoint fill discipline, and defined adjustment rules with invalidation at <356.5 (bear invalidation) or >416.35 (bull invalidation).
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on April 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.