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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $417.85EOD only
Max Pain
$410.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.23
2.0% from close
Price Gap
-7.85
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
42
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
TSLA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias from strong flow and pinning gamma near MP cluster $412-420. Spot above MP and high vol support momentum toward resistance $430-440. Multi-week thesis with moderate risk from spot-MP divergence.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 positive gamma pinning; -0.5 spot +3.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Supports: Bullish flow, positive gamma, spot above MP, low VIX
Conflicts: Spot 3.3% above MP, high vol regime
🐂Bullish flow and +322M GEX align strongly
📌Max Pain pinning $412-420 supports
⚡Spot +3.3% above MP; mean reversion possible
🧊High vol can sustain momentum

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated relative to VIX 16.7; high vol regime typical for TSLA
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive GEX $322.8M pinning near MP cluster $412-420; gamma flip distant ~$300
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish net premium flow; call-heavy P/C ratio
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot 3.3% above MP $412; upside bias but mean reversion risk
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Distant gamma flip and persistent bullish flow suggest structural buying pressure lasting weeks

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$412.71$439.31
Range $412.71-$439.31; resistance at $440, support $412.5
Next 2 weeks
$398.59$453.44
Range $398.59-$453.44; upside to $450 if flow continues

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $412 (2026-05-22); $415 (2026-05-26); $420 (2026-05-27)
EM guardrails: 1w $412.71/$439.31
Support: $412.50 · $398.59
Resistance: $430.00 · $440.00 · $450.00
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,945 (29.6% below spot)
Structural: MP pins $412/$415/$420; guardrails $412.71/$439.31; support $412.5/$398.59; resistance $430/$440/$450; gamma flip ~$300

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+322.8M

DEX: +133.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,945 (29.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers long gamma (+$322.8M GEX) and delta (+133.4M shares). Pinning expected near MP. Gamma flip at ~$300, distant.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TSLA IV rich vs VIX 16.7; implies stock-specific premium

Term structure: Contango likely; front-month elevated near expiry

Skew: Put skew elevated; call overwriting at resistance; iron condors around support/resistance

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium $447M, P/C vol 0.51, OI 0.73 bullish but unusual puts caution.

Directional prints: 13.2 put 427.5 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 72.5; high new buying; bearish put purchase. 40.1 call 395 ITM 2026-05-26 — Vol/OI 46.2; OTM call buying; bullish bet.

Unusual: 25.7 put 427.5 ITM 2026-05-26 — Vol/OI 61.6; unusual put volume; bearish hedge. 35.1 put 450 ITM 2026-05-26 — Vol/OI 54.4; large OTM put buying; downside.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $300 if selloff
!Mean reversion to MP $412
!Flow reversal
!High vol sharp moves

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-18 $425.00/$460.00 call spread
Why now: Spot above MP cluster, strong call flow and net premium support upside. Use spread to cap risk.
Mean reversion to MP $412 if momentum stalls; max loss if spot below long strike.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-06-12 $405.00/$400.00 put spread
Why now: Spot above $410 with gamma support; unusual put print at 427.5 may be hedging. Short below key support.
Break below $410 could widen losses; gamma flip potential on selloff.
Bullish risk reversalConditional
Buy 2026-06-26 $445.00 call / sell 2026-06-26 $395.00 put
Why now: Bullish multi-week bias with high vol; premium from short put offsets call cost. Targets $440+.
Unlimited downside if spot drops below short put strike; requires careful sizing.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-18 $425.00/$460.00 call spread
Buy $425/$460 call spread to express bullish view with defined risk.
Why this play: Directly aligns with bullish thesis, strong call flow, limited risk, targets $460 resistance.
Debit: $10.87-$13.28
Max loss: $13.28
BE: $438.28
Mgmt: Exit if spot closes below $412.5. Take partial profits near $460.
Traders seeking upside with capped risk.
#2
Bullish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-06-26 $445.00 call / sell 2026-06-26 $395.00 put
Buy $445 call, sell $395 put for unlimited upside with downside protection from short put premium.
Why this play: Captures upside momentum with premium from short put offsetting call cost; fits multi-week bias.
Debit: $5.58-$6.82
Max loss: $395.00
BE: $395.00
Mgmt: Close if spot breaks below $412.5. Roll if call ITM.
Aggressive traders expecting strong rally.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-12 $405.00/$400.00 put spread
Sell $405/$400 put spread to collect premium while staying short below key support.
Why this play: Defensive bullish play, benefits from gamma support above $410; limited risk.
Credit: $1.31-$1.60
Max loss: $3.40
BE: $403.40
Mgmt: Exit early if spot drops below $412.5. Hold to expiry if above short strike.
Conservative traders seeking income with low risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot holds above $412.5 → Buy $425/$460 call spread
IFSpot breaks above $430 → Buy $445 call / sell $395 put risk reversal
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot closes below $412.5 → Close $425/$460 call spread
EXITSpot breaks below $412.5 → Close risk reversal

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias from strong flow and pinning gamma near MP $412-420. Spot above MP, support $412.5, resistance $430-440. Multi-week upside momentum. Use defined risk spreads.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.