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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $404.11EOD only
Max Pain
$417.50
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.10
2.0% from close
Price Gap
+13.39
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
30
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
TSLA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
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Outlook

Bullish thesis driven by positive dealer gamma, bullish flow, and spot above max pain. Range-bound drift upward into options expiry, targeting upper boundaries. Maintain bullish bias with caution on resistance at $445.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 gamma pinning; +0.5 VIX 18. Score 8.5 reflects strong alignment of dealer positioning and flow.
Supports: Dealer positive gamma (+$150M), bullish flow, spot above max pain, low VIX (18.4).
Conflicts: Resistance at $445-$450, high IV pricing downside risk, spy/qqq negative bias.
📌Gamma pinning at $410 and $435 (5/18 max pain) creates drift range; $435 is a pin, not hard resistance.
💰Strong dealer demand indicates limited downside; put skew overpriced.
⚠️Negative macro sentiment (SPY -1.2%) is a headwind, but TSLA flow isolated.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High IV (~65th percentile) reflecting elevated uncertainty ahead of weekly options expiry.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive gamma pinning spot near $430; gamma flip far below at $300, reducing crash risk.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish flow with net call premium; P/C ratio < 0.6 indicating call bias.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot $422 above max pain $410, supporting upward drift into expiry.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Options expiry (5/15, 5/18, 5/20) and positive gamma pinning create event-driven conditions.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$412.11$432.36
Gamma pinning supports drift to upper range $432.36
Next 1 week
$405.66$438.81
Break above $432 targets $438.81 as resistance fades
Next 2 weeks
$397.36$447.11
Sustained momentum could test $447.11, but watch gamma flip risk

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $410 (2026-05-15); $435 (2026-05-18); $430 (2026-05-20)
EM guardrails: 2d $412.11/$432.36; 1w $405.66/$438.81
Support: $410.00 · $397.36
Resistance: $445.00 · $447.11 · $450.00
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,368 (29.0% below spot)
Structural: Max pain pins: $410 (5/15), $435 (5/18), $430 (5/20). Support: $410, $397. Resistance: $445, $447, $450. Gamma flip ~$300.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+150.1M

DEX: +141.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,368 (29.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$150.1M positive; DEX +141.7M shares long; gamma flip ~$300 from put OI.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV ~65% vs VIX 18.43, rich; prices in large moves but gamma supports range-bound action.

Term structure: Contango with kinks at 5/15 and 5/18 expiry; front-end vol elevated.

Skew: Put skew steep; sell puts at $410 support for premium collection.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium positive $3.04M with call volume dominating (P/C vol ratio 0.64, OI ratio 0.76), consistent with bullish flow.

Directional prints: 29.5 call 425 OTM 2026-05-18 — Vol/OI 41.5, heavy call buying, IV 29.5%, likely open purchases for upside. 39.5 call 427.5 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 36.5, OTM call volume elevated, extending bullish outlook.

Unusual: 187.5 put 160 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 53.5, deep OTM put with extreme IV, likely speculative short put sale or hedge. 11.6 call 427.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 35.9 on expiry, low IV, suggests closing of short calls or exercise. 24.9 put 425 ITM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 33.3 on expiry, heavy put volume at $425, possibly hedging or closing.

Risks & Catalysts

!Broad market selloff if VIX spikes
!Gamma flip if spot drops to $300 (unlikely)
!Negative macro correlation
!Options expiry pin reversal

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-18 $420.00/$460.00 call spread
Why now: Positive gamma, bullish flow, and spot above max pain support upward drift.
Underlying fails to reach $445, resulting in loss of debit paid.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-06-18 $380.00/$355.00 put spread
Why now: Put credit spread limits risk while benefiting from bullish drift and time decay.
Selloff below $400 could lead to max loss if put spread is breached.
Bullish risk reversalModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-17 $455.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $395.00 put
Why now: Low put implied vol and bullish flow make this attractive for leveraged upside.
Sharp downside below short put strike exposes unlimited loss on put leg.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-18 $420.00/$460.00 call spread
Buy $420/$460 call spread for June expiry.
Why this play: Captures upside drift with defined risk; positive gamma and bullish flow align.
Debit: $12.60-$15.40
Max loss: $15.40
BE: $435.40
Mgmt: Take profit at 50% gain; stop if spot breaks $410.
Defined-risk upside traders.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $380.00/$355.00 put spread
Sell $380/$355 put spread for premium income.
Why this play: Generates premium while limiting downside from bullish drift.
Credit: $3.38-$4.12
Max loss: $20.88
BE: $375.88
Mgmt: Buy back at 50% max profit; adjust at $410 support.
Income-seeking traders.
#3
Bullish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-07-17 $455.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $395.00 put
Buy $455 call, sell $395 put for synthetic long.
Why this play: Leveraged upside with unlimited gain potential, but higher risk.
Debit: $2.20-$2.69
Max loss: $395.00
BE: $395.00
Mgmt: Close if spot falls below $410 invalidation.
Aggressive traders seeking leverage.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot holds above $410 support after dip → Enter tsla_bull_call_spread_1: buy 2026-06-18 $420/$460 call spread.
IFIf spot stays above $410 and bullish flow continues → Enter tsla_put_credit_spread_2: sell 2026-06-18 $380/$355 put spread.
Exit Triggers
EXITIf spot breaks below $410 invalidation → Close tsla_risk_reversal_3: buy back $395 put, sell $455 call.

Tactical Summary

Bullish drift into expiry. Enter bull call spread on support hold; enter put credit spread for premium; exit risk reversal if $410 breaks. Key levels: $410 support, $445-450 resistance.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.