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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $388.90EOD only
Max Pain
$365.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.62
2.0% from close
Price Gap
-23.90
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.71
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 16, 2026 close
TSLA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Mildly bullish: dealer long-delta and persistent call-buy flow are likely to keep TSLA trading above max-pain in the short run, but pinning is conditional — sustained net call buyflow > $50M/day or GEX staying >+$500M confirms continuation; a net premium reversal >-$40M/day or IV jump >+6 vol points would likely unwind pinning toward the $368–372 MP band.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Large positive GEX and multi-day net premium inflows support spot; distance to MP and gamma flip create tail risk if flows reverse or IV spikes.
Supports: Sustained net call-buy flow and GEX >+$500M; dealers hedging buys on dips
Conflicts: Spot ~9% above MP and gamma flip ~350 below spot; large IV spike or rapid net selling conflicts with pin thesis
📌Testable: net premium inflow >$50M/day confirms pin persistence
⚠️Warning: IV +6 vol or net premium <-$40M/day would likely force reversion toward $368–372

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV rich vs VIX baseline; IV +6 vol points would materially raise hedging costs and likely break dealer hedges
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive GEX (>>+$500M) creates pinning; gamma flip ~350 is a nearby structural downside magnet if dealers unwind
Flow Regime
Bullish
Net premium inflows concentrated in calls; thresholds: >$50M/day sustain pin, <-$40M/day unwinds
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot ~9% above max-pain ($368–372). EM/near-term dealer hedging can keep spot in upper range despite lower MP; longer unwind occurs if flow/IV thresholds met
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Persistent call-heavy flow and large GEX sustain elevated spot unless explicit unwind triggers (net sellflow or IV spike) occur

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$391.04$410.19
Expect EM guardrails $391–410 from dealer hedging; holds above MP absent immediate sellflow or IV jump
Next 1 week
$374.92$426.32
If net inflow >$50M/day, upside to $426; otherwise mean-revert pressure toward MP emerges on sustained outflows
Next 2 weeks
$368.87$432.37
Persistence of flows/GEX keeps potential to $432; a cumulative 3-day net premium <-$120M or IV spike would shift bias toward MP

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $368 (2026-04-17); $372 (2026-04-20); $370 (2026-04-24)
EM guardrails: 2d $391.04/$410.19; 1w $374.92/$426.32
Support: $368.87 · $367.50
Resistance: $432.37
Gamma flip: ~$350.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,999 (12.6% below spot)
Structural: EM guardrails 2d $391/$410 (dealer-hedge band); 1w $375/$426; max-pain cluster $368–372; gamma flip ~$350

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+695.6M

DEX: +145.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$350 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,999 (12.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$695.6M, DEX +145.4M shares; dealers net long-delta creating pin pressure above MP; gamma flip ~350 (puts concentrated ~12.6% below spot)

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TSLA IV is rich versus VIX; higher IV increases hedging cost and likelihood of dealers reducing hedges, so watch +6 vol move as unwind trigger

Term structure: Front-month IV elevated with kinks at near expiries (MP dates); roll to cheaper longer-dated vols

Skew: Steep skew with put OI concentrated below spot — actionable: sell call spreads or short-dated put wings if comfortable with pin and defined risk

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Very large net premium with call bias (vol P/C 0.51, OI P/C 0.72) indicating overall call‑biased flow with downside hedging.

Directional prints: 14.1 call 407.5 OTM 2026-04-17 — Massive same‑day call flow at 407.5 (242,917 vol, high OI) — bullish/pinning toward 405–410; likely buy or dealer sell gamma. 5.3 call 402.5 OTM 2026-04-17 — Heavy same‑day 402.5 calls (225,051 vol, large OI) reinforcing short‑term bullish pin.

Unusual: 7.8 put 402.5 ITM 2026-04-17 — Extreme vol/oi (741.5) on 402.5 puts (106k vol, OI 143) — likely aggressive buys or opening hedges; notable tail protection.

Risks & Catalysts

!Net premium reversal >-$40M/day or cumulative 3-day <-$120M
!IV spike >+6 vol points forcing dealer hedge unwind
!Rapid gap down toward gamma flip (~$350) if multiple triggers coincide

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Call diagonalModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-29 $420.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $430.00 call
Why now: Persistent call-buy flow and dealer long-delta favor staying above max-pain; sell front-month call (rich near-term vol) while owning back-month to capture term-structure and directional tilt.
IV spike or rapid premium reversal could widen calendar cost or force adjustment.
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-01 $370.00/$360.00 put spread
Why now: Strong call-biased flow and dealer long-delta make short-put wings efficient; keeps defined risk while harvesting premium post-earnings into multi-week window.
IV spike or net premium reversal around earnings can widen short strikes' risk.
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-05-01 $395.00/$415.00 call spread
Why now: Buy calls around steep deltas (0.53–0.68) and cap upside to reduce cost while riding sustained call-buy flow after earnings.
Large IV move higher into/after earnings reduces expected profit; needs continuation of call-buy flow.
Cash-secured putModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-08 $380.00 cash-secured put
Why now: Mildly bullish bias and active put bid at 380–395 make accepting assignment at those strikes reasonable for multi-week exposure.
Assignment into a rapid gap down or IV spike increases effective basis.
Call diagonalModerate
Sell 2026-05-01 $415.00 call / buy 2026-05-22 $400.00 call
Why now: Near-term vols are rich and concentrated call buying suggests rollable short calls; keeps exposure across multi-week earnings period.
Post-earnings IV jump or directional gap can make front-month short leg painful; choose expirations on/after earnings.

Top Plays

#1
Short put credit (May 370/360)
Sell 2026-05-01 $370.00/$360.00 put spread
Sell the May 370/360 put spread to collect premium while dealers stay long-delta; profits if TSLA holds above ~370 over the multi-week window.
Why this play: Best risk-adjusted way to express mild bullish pinning with defined risk and high probability given persistent call-buy flow.
Credit: $1.55-$1.89
Max loss: $8.11
BE: $368.11
Mgmt: Take max gain into earnings fade or if net call buyflow drops <$50M/day; tighten or buy back if price breaches 368 or premium reversal accelerates.
Traders seeking defined-risk income and short-term bullish exposure post-flow bias.
#2
Call diagonal (sell May420 / buy Jun430)
Sell 2026-05-29 $420.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $430.00 call
Sell nearer-term call to harvest skew/term premium and own back-month to keep upside if pinning continues toward 405–410.
Why this play: Captures rich front-month vol and directional tilt from sustained call buying while preserving upside with back-month long call.
Debit: $1.89-$2.31
Max loss: $2.31
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Roll short if heavy pinning persists; exit if IV jumps >+6 vol or price moves below 368.
Traders wanting volatility arbitrage plus mild bullish exposure with limited margin impact.
#3
Bull call spread (May 395/415)
Buy 2026-05-01 $395.00/$415.00 call spread
Buy the 395/415 call spread to participate in upside with capped premium; edge from selling less skewed calls further out relative to rich front-month demand.
Why this play: Directional play with quantified edge: front-month 30d skew favors calls (call/put IV ratio ~1.25) and P(Touch 395 before expiry) ≈ 38%, making paid spread cost-efficient vs. outright call.
Debit: $7.92-$9.68
Max loss: $9.68
BE: $404.68
Mgmt: Trim or close into sharp IV spikes or if price fails to sustain above 395; tighten stops approaching earnings.
Directional bullish traders preferring limited loss and trade with skew/flow awareness.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF TSLA stays >372 and net call buyflow >= $50M per trading day (measured as exchange-reported gross call buys minus sells) for the next 3 sessions → THEN enter put credit spread: Sell May 370 / Buy May 360 (target entry premium 1.55–1.89); size per risk limits; stop if daily close <368.87 or cumulative premium flow over 3 days flips to <= -$120M.
IFIF front-month call IV > 30-day mean IV by >=+3 vol points and TSLA trades 395–410 while net call buyflow >= $50M per trading day → THEN enter call diagonal: Sell near-dated May29 $420 / Buy longer-dated Jun18 $430 (target entry 1.89–2.31); plan to roll short if heavy pinning toward 405–410 or if short leg needs adjustment.
Exit Triggers
EXITIF front-month IV spikes >= +6 vol points versus the 30-day mean within one trading day OR net premium reversal <= -$40M in a single day OR 3-day cumulative premium flow <= -$120M OR price closes <368.87 → THEN close or materially trim all defined-risk short premium positions (buy back put credit, unwind diagonal) and cut directional bull spreads; reassess positioning if gamma exposure shifts near ~350.

Tactical Summary

Mildly bullish multi-week bias: prefer defined-risk short puts or call diagonals while net call buyflow >= $50M/day sustained (or 3-day cumulative >= $150M). Exit/trim if single-day reversal <= -$40M or 3-day cumulative <= -$120M, or if front-month IV spikes >= +6 vol pts vs 30-day mean in one day or price breaches 368.87.

Read the Directional analysis for TSLA for 2026-04-17. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.