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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $417.85EOD only
Max Pain
$410.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.23
2.0% from close
Price Gap
-7.85
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
42
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
TSLA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

TSLA exhibits a bullish pinning regime with strong dealer gamma support near max pain levels, but high vol and resistance above $440 cap upside. Directional bias is bullish into May 22-27 expiry, with risk of gamma flip below $300.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; +0.5 spot 1.9% above MP; +1 VIX 17. Total 9.0.
Supports: Bullish flow, +$165.9M GEX, +128.3M DEX, spot above MP, max pain near $410-$425.
Conflicts: High vol, resistance at $440-$450, gamma flip risk at ~$300.
📈Spot above max pain $410, pinning to $415-$425.
🛡️Dealers long gamma $165.9M, pinning into expiry.
⚠️Resistance at $440-$450; break requires catalyst.
🔻Gamma flip at ~$300 (put OI concentration) distant risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol relative to VIX; elevated due to event risk and dealer pinning.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning regime: positive gamma clusters near $410-$425, reducing spot mobility until expiry.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish flow: net premium positive, calls dominate, supporting upward drift.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above max pain ($410) by ~2.5%, pushing toward upper pin levels $425.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Max pain pins at $410, $415, $425 on May 22, 26, 27; high gamma and vol concentrated around these dates.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$409.63$426.08
Pinning to $410-$426, support from dealer gamma.
Next 1 week
$404.90$430.80
Resistance at $430.80; break above $426 opens $430.
Next 2 weeks
$389.80$445.90
Wider range $390-$446; gamma flip risk and resistance cap upside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $410 (2026-05-22); $415 (2026-05-26); $425 (2026-05-27)
EM guardrails: 2d $409.63/$426.08; 1w $404.90/$430.80
Support: $410.00 · $389.80
Resistance: $440.00 · $445.90 · $450.00
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,731 (28.2% below spot)
Structural: Support: $410 (MP), $389.8 (2w low). Resistance: $440, $445.9, $450. Gamma flip ~$300.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+165.9M

DEX: +128.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,731 (28.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$165.9M, DEX +128.3M shares, gamma flip ~$300 (put OI concentration 21,731).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX (16.76); elevated due to event and pinning, but may compress post-expiry.

Term structure: Front-end elevated, backwardation into May 22-27 expiry; kinks at weekly pins.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider call spread to capture upside pin vs capped resistance.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Bullish: $248.8M net, P/C 0.49, heavy calls.

Directional prints: 34.3 call 420 OTM 2026-05-22 — 146k vol vs 10k OI (14.5x). Aggressive call buying, bullish. Preferred: bought. 34.4 call 422.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — 71k vol vs 2.5k OI (27.9x). Very high relative, likely bought calls. 33.4 put 417.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — 42k vol vs 1.4k OI (30.6x). High put volume; may be sold for premium. Preferred: sold (bullish).

Unusual: 36.1 put 445 ITM 2026-05-26 — 12k vol vs 263 OI (45.9x). ITM put buying; protective or bearish. Preferred: bought. 34.7 call 422.5 OTM 2026-05-27 — 2.3k vol vs 124 OI (18.1x). Concentrated OTM call buying next week. Bullish. 31.2 call 417.5 ITM 2026-05-26 — 6.1k vol vs 368 OI (16.6x). OTM call buying next week. Bullish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot drops below $410 max pain, triggering dealer sells and gamma flip.
!Failure to break $430 resistance leads to pinning and time decay.
!Sudden vol collapse squeezes long gamma positions.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadStrong
Buy 2026-06-05 $420.00/$450.00 call spread
Why now: Heavy call buying at 420C implies upside; defined risk spread profits if TSLA grinds higher into max pain pinning zone.
Failure to break 430 leads to time decay; spread caps upside above 440.
Put credit spreadStrong
Sell 2026-06-05 $390.00/$385.00 put spread
Why now: Put credit spread profits from time decay and bullish bias; defined risk if TSLA drops below 395. Heavy put selling at 400P supports.
Sharp drop below 395 triggers max loss; tail risk from earnings event.
Bullish risk reversalModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-12 $445.00 call / sell 2026-06-12 $385.00 put
Why now: Aggressive call buying and low put open interest suggest continued upside; risk reversal captures upside with defined downside subsidy.
Short put obligates purchase at strike if TSLA falls sharply; unlimited upside risk on call expires worthless if flat.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-05 $420.00/$450.00 call spread
Buy 420/450 call spread to capture upside into max pain.
Why this play: Directly profits from heavy call buying and bullish bias; defined risk fits pinning scenario.
Debit: $8.01-$9.79
Max loss: $9.79
BE: $429.79
Mgmt: Exit if TSLA drops below 410 or near expiration.
Traders seeking defined risk bullish exposure.
#2
Bullish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-06-12 $445.00 call / sell 2026-06-12 $385.00 put
Buy 445 call, sell 385 put for unlimited upside.
Why this play: Captures upside with subsidized cost; aligns with aggressive call flow.
Debit: $2.86-$3.49
Max loss: $385.00
BE: $385.00
Mgmt: Monitor gamma risk; close if vol spikes or trend reverses.
Aggressive traders wanting leveraged bullish bias.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-05 $390.00/$385.00 put spread
Sell 390/385 put spread to collect premium.
Why this play: Profits from time decay and bullish floor; less direct but safe.
Credit: $0.76-$0.93
Max loss: $4.07
BE: $389.07
Mgmt: Roll if spot nears 395; exit at 50% max gain.
Defensive traders favoring theta decay.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF TSLA holds above $410 max pain with bullish momentum → THEN enter Bull Call Spread (TSLA-1) at market price within $8.01-$9.79
IFIF TSLA breaks above $440 resistance on volume → THEN enter Bullish Risk Reversal (TSLA-3) to capture upside
IFIF TSLA ranges between $410 and $440 with low vol → THEN sell Put Credit Spread (TSLA-2) near $0.76-$0.93 premium
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF TSLA nears $450 resistance → THEN take partial profits on Bull Call Spread to reduce risk
Exit Triggers
EXITIF TSLA drops below $410 invalidation level → THEN exit all long bullish positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias into pinning; support $410, resistance $440. Favor defined risk bull call spreads for upside, put credit spreads for range, and risk reversals for aggressive. Invalidate below $410.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.