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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $417.26EOD only
Max Pain
$410.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.60
3.0% from close
Price Gap
-7.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
40
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
TSLA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

TSLA bullish near-term with dealer gamma pinning and positive flow. Spot above max pain suggests upward drift into expiry, but rich vol and structural resistance at $447 cap gains.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 GEX positive pinning -0.5 spot 3% from MP +1 VIX 17 = 8.5. GEX flow synergy and low VIX support high confidence.
Supports: Dealer GEX +$280.6M, bullish flow, vol regime high but VIX moderate, spot above max pain pinning chain.
Conflicts: Spot near resistance $447, gamma flip far at $300 poses tail risk if catalyst misses.
📈Bullish flow + positive gamma: strong pinning towards $418 max pain.
⚠️Spot 3% above MP $405: drift likely but not pinned.
💰Dealer $280.6M gamma supports intraday support at $405.
🔻Gamma flip at $300: extreme downside if catalyst fails.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol due to event proximity and elevated IV relative to typical range, though VIX at 17 caps premium expansion.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Positive gamma ($280.6M) with pinning to max pain $405-$418; flip far below at $300.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish net premium flow with strong call buying; P/C ratio skewed puts, but open interest shows heavy put concentration.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above max pain $405 by ~3%; upward bias into expiry with resistance at dealer call walls $447.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — High vol and pinning dynamics tied to 2026-05-20 expiry; gamma decay post-expiry changes regime.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$404.66$429.86
Gamma pinning supports drift to $418+ but overbought RSI may cap.
Next 1 week
$400.99$433.54
Post-expiry vol crush could pressure spot lower.
Next 2 weeks
$387.51$447.01
Structural resistance and potential catalyst gap risks.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $405 (2026-05-20); $410 (2026-05-22); $418 (2026-05-26)
EM guardrails: 2d $404.66/$429.86; 1w $400.99/$433.54
Support: $405.00 · $387.51
Resistance: $447.01 · $450.00
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,347 (28.1% below spot)
Structural: Support: $405 (max pain), $387.51 (2w low). Resistance: $447.01 (2w high), $450. Gamma flip at $300.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+280.6M

DEX: +134.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,347 (28.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$280.6M, DEX +134.1M shares. Positive gamma supports spot above $405. Gamma flip ~$300 based on put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX at 17 due to event risk; elevated IV typical in high vol regime but moderate vs historic TSLA spikes.

Term structure: Front-end elevated with event kink at May 20 expiry; back-end lower, suggesting expected vol drop post-event.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider call verticals to capture upward drift if confident in pin to max pain.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net $993M positive, P/C vol 0.49, strongly bullish.

Directional prints: 13.9 call 415 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 36x, heavy call buying, bullish flow. 14.5 call 412.5 ITM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 51x, aggressive call accumulation.

Unusual: 11.7 put 412.5 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 91x, extreme put selling, likely bearish hedge. 14.5 put 410 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 55x, elevated put activity, possibly sold. 40.9 put 412.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 21x, high IV put, short-dated bearish bet.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $300 triggers cascade selling if catalyst fails.
!Spot rejection at $447 resistance leads to sharp fall to $405 support.
!Post-expiry vol crush can collapse premium and pressure spot.
!Macro shock (VIX spike) reverses bullish flow and gamma pinning.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Call diagonalModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-07-17 $440.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $420.00 call
Why now: Strong bullish flow and positive dealer gamma pinning favor upward drift into July expiration. Short front-month high-IV call funds long back-month position for continued upside after event.
Upside capped at short strike; vol crush post-expiry may hurt long leg if spot stalls.
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-17 $450.00/$470.00 call spread
Why now: Bull call spread limits cost and risk, aligning with upward drift and max pain above spot.
Vol crush post-earnings; resistance cap at $447.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-17 $380.00/$355.00 put spread
Why now: Put credit spread profits from upward drift with defined risk; OTM strikes at $400/$395 support.
Sharp breakdown below $400 invalidates thesis.
Bullish risk reversalModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-17 $430.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $365.00 put
Why now: Risk reversal captures upside skew, benefits from upward move; cheap entry via put premium.
Downside if spot falls below short put strike; unlimited risk if short put not covered.
Call diagonalModerate
Sell 2026-06-05 $440.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $430.00 call
Why now: Call diagonal benefits from time decay in front leg and directional upside in back leg.
Flat or down move hurts both legs; assignment risk on short call.
Cash-secured putModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-17 $365.00 cash-secured put
Why now: Cash-secured put collects premium and sets buy target; aligns with support level.
Sharp drop below $400 locks in loss; opportunity cost if rally hard.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $450.00/$470.00 call spread
Buy $450/$470 call spread to profit from moderate rally into July expiry.
Why this play: Best for capturing upward drift with defined risk; aligns with positive flow and gamma pinning.
Debit: $4.64-$5.67
Max loss: $5.67
BE: $455.67
Mgmt: Exit near max profit at $470 or if spot breaks below $405 invalidation level.
Bullish traders wanting capped risk and reward.
#2
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-17 $440.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $420.00 call
Sell near-term $440 call, buy longer-term $420 call to fund upside.
Why this play: Leverages time decay in short front-month call while maintaining upside exposure through back-month long call.
Debit: $16.79-$20.52
Max loss: $20.52
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Monitor gamma risk; adjust if spot approaches $440 short strike. Roll or close if invalidation at $405.
Traders seeking to reduce cost of bullish position while benefiting from vol dynamics.
#3
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $380.00/$355.00 put spread
Sell $380/$355 put spread to profit from bullish momentum.
Why this play: Collects premium with defined risk at support levels, benefiting from upward drift.
Credit: $5.31-$6.49
Max loss: $18.51
BE: $373.51
Mgmt: Close if spot falls to $405 invalidation or take profit at 50% of max gain.
Income-focused traders expecting bullish continuation.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot holds above $405 support for 1 hour, THEN initiate bull call spread $450/$470 July 17. → Buy tsla_bull_call_spread_001 at $4.64-$5.67
IFIF spot trades above $430 with momentum, THEN enter call diagonal. → Execute TSLA_CallDiagonal_001: sell $440 call, buy $420 call
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF spot approaches $447 resistance and slows, THEN roll put credit spread up. → Adjust tsla_put_credit_spread_002 to sell $400/$380 spread
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot closes below $405, THEN exit all bullish positions. → Close tsla_bull_call_spread_001, TSLA_CallDiagonal_001, tsla_put_credit_spread_002

Tactical Summary

Bullish above $405 support; target $447 resistance. Favor bull call spread for defined risk. Use call diagonal if $430 holds. Invalidation at $405 triggers exit. Max pain at $405; gamma flip at $300 irrelevant near-term.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.