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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $433.45EOD only

Max Pain

$425.00

Next expiry May 13, 2026

Expected Move

±$11.15

2.6% from close

Price Gap

-8.45

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.78

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 12, 2026 close

TSLA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

TSLA bullish with dealer gamma pinning near $428 MP. High vol and bullish flow support upside to $450-$460. Bias bullish next week, neutral week two.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX pinning; -0.5 spot 4.2% above MP; +1 VIX 18.

Supports: Bullish flow, positive GEX, pinning, high vol, elevated VIX.
Conflicts: Spot above MP, resistance $450-$460, vol compression risk.

🟢GEX +$447M bullish pinning near $428

⚡High vol regime VIX 18 amplifies moves

⚠️Spot 4.2% above MP; reversion risk

📊2d range $429.77-$460.77

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV high vs typical, VIX 17.87, event-driven.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$447M positive pin near $428, no flip.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow skewed calls, aligns dealer hedging.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot 4.2% above MP $428, bullish bias but pull risk.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Centered on weekly expirations (May 13,15,18).

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$429.77$460.77

Bias to test $450-$460 resistance, support at $428.

Next 1 week

$425.72$464.82

Extended upside if $460 breaks, risk to $420 support.

Next 2 weeks

$409.89$480.64

Wide range; breakout above $460 or breakdown below $410.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $428 (2026-05-13); $400 (2026-05-15); $420 (2026-05-18)

EM guardrails: 2d $429.77/$460.77; 1w $425.72/$464.82

Support: $427.50 · $409.89

Resistance: $450.00 · $475.00 · $480.64

Structural: Support $428 (MP), $410; resistance $450, $475, $480.64. EM guardrails: 2d $430-$461, 1w $426-$465.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+447.1M

DEX: +155.7M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers long gamma $+447M GEX, long DEX +156M shares. Pinning support near $428 MP; no gamma flip.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TSLA IV rich vs VIX 17.87, elevated vol supports directional moves but risks compression post-event.

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to events, back-end cheaper; likely contango.

Skew: Skew steep puts; opportunity: sell call spreads above resistance or buy put spreads for protection.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net call premium of $1.37B with put/call volume ratio 0.47 indicates strong bullish flow.

Directional prints: 13.3 call 452.5 OTM 2026-05-13 — Volume 186,288 vs OI 4,041 (vol/OI 46.1) suggests aggressive call buying; interpreted as bullish. 17.2 call 455 OTM 2026-05-13 — Volume 170,918 vs OI 4,019 (vol/OI 42.5) indicates call buying; bullish sentiment.

Unusual: 12.5 put 447.5 ITM 2026-05-13 — Volume 109,180 vs OI 822 (vol/OI 132.8) is extremely unusual; likely a large put seller or hedge. 6.5 call 447.5 OTM 2026-05-13 — Volume 165,094 vs OI 2,821 (vol/OI 58.5) is highly unusual; may be paired with put at same strike. 4.4 put 445 OTM 2026-05-13 — Volume 139,874 vs OI 2,600 (vol/OI 53.8) is unusual; suggests put selling or hedging.

Risks & Catalysts

!Failure to hold $428 support triggers gamma unwind.

!Vol crush post-event.

!Broader market decline overrides setup.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-29 $475.00/$480.00 call spread Why now: Bull flow and vol crush after short-term spike make defined-risk call spread ideal	Upside capped if move exceeds short strike; gamma risk if pin expires
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $420.00/$415.00 put spread Why now: Premium collection with defined risk below support; high IV favors credit sale	Losses if support breaks; max loss is spread width
Bullish risk reversal	Conditional	Buy 2026-06-12 $470.00 call / sell 2026-06-12 $420.00 put Why now: Low put premium allows cheap upside exposure; bullish flow aligns	Unlimited downside on short put if large drop; roll risk if tail expires

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-05-29 $475.00/$480.00 call spread

Buy $475/$480 call spread to profit from upside to $480 with capped loss.

Why this play: Best balances bullish view with defined risk; ideal for limited capital and vol crush.

Debit: $0.95-$1.16

Max loss: $1.16

BE: $476.16

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or before earnings to avoid vol crush.

Traders wanting capped risk with bullish bias.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-05-29 $420.00/$415.00 put spread

Sell $420/$415 put spread to earn premium with defined risk under support.

Why this play: Collects premium with downside protection below $420; high IV favors credit sale.

Credit: $1.15-$1.40

Max loss: $3.60

BE: $418.60

Mgmt: Roll out if $420 breaches; take profit at 50%.

Neutral-to-bullish traders seeking premium in elevated vol.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-06-12 $470.00 call / sell 2026-06-12 $420.00 put

Buy $470 call, sell $420 put for near-zero cost upside to unlimited gains.

Why this play: Cheapest upside exposure but unlimited downside risk; suits high conviction only.

Debit: $2.52-$3.08

Max loss: $420.00

BE: $420.00

Mgmt: Monitor $420 support; adjust or close if put goes ITM.

Aggressive traders with strong bullish conviction.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFTSLA breaks above $450 with volume → Enter $475/$480 call spread for $1.00-$1.16

IFTSLA holds above $428 for 2 days → Sell $420/$415 put spread for $1.15-$1.40

Exit Triggers

EXITTSLA closes below $427.5 → Exit all bullish positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Bullish near-term, support $428, resistance $450-$475. Use call spread for upside or put credit spread for premium; invalidate below $427.5. Vol crush favors defined-risk strategies.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.