TSLA
Tesla, Inc.Close $426.01EOD onlyThis page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
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You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.
View latest reportOutlook
Neutral-to-bearish with downside pressure but short-term pin attempts toward $355-$360; Confidence: 7.0/10 (base). Primary supports: large negative GEX (-$42.0M) implying trendability and heavy net sell premium (Net Premium: -$530.3M), and concentrated call GEX magnets at $355/$360 that can act as short-term resistance/pinning; conflict: elevated ATM IV (Avg IV 65.4%) which favors buying protection and the 2d EM lower bound $338.14 which limits immediate downside.
Conflicts: High avg IV 65.4% and heavy call OI at $370-$500 that could slow a sustained sell-off; mixed flow (P/C vol 0.93) dilutes clear directional conviction.
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $-42.0M
DEX: +123.8M shares
Gamma flip: N/A
NTM gamma: Total GEX -$42.0M; concentrated positive GEX at $355/$360 (~+$9.5M at $360) creates local pinning but net negative GEX means dealers are short gamma overall — if spot falls 2% (~$338), dealers will sell stock to hedge puts (accelerating downside); if spot rises 2% (~$352), dealers will buy less aggressively due to net short gamma but local pin magnets may supply some resistance.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: Avg IV 65.4% vs equity-market context (VIX not provided) — IV is elevated; short-dated ATM (1–11d) sits ~51.7%–52.9% with a mid-term dip then elevated 15d (52.9%) — expensive short-dated skew.
Term structure: Non-monotonic: very short (1–11d) ~41%–52%, 15–36d elevated 47%–52.9%, 70–99d ~45% implying moderately backwarded/slightly humped term — calendar opportunities exist around 15d vs 30–45d.
Skew: Put-heavy skew to deep OTM calls (large call OI at 370–500) and pricey short-dated ITM activity; mispriced opportunity: sell short-dated 4/10 ATM premium (IV ~52%) vs buy 30–45d (ATM ~47–48%) — sell short/buy longer calendar favoring longer-dated leg (vol edge ~4–5 pts).
Flow Analysis
Net premium: Net Premium -$530.3M (heavy selling of premium), P/C Volume 0.93, P/C OI 0.66 — institutional net sellers of premium and skewed directional bets.
Directional prints: 52.7 call 342.5 ITM 2026-04-10 — Large 4/10 CALL 342.5 vol 59,716 vs OI 1,709 (34.9x) — could be aggressive buy-to-open calls (bullish hedged flow) or converting stock sellers into synthetic; given net premium sell backdrop, more consistent with dealer flow hedging (clients buying protection) but ambiguous. 50.9 put 347.5 ITM 2026-04-10 — 4/10 PUT 347.5 vol 76,230 vs OI 2,587 (29.5x) — large put activity close to spot suggests directional hedging or short-term bearish positioning; aligns with negative GEX and net premium sell (more likely buyer-initiated puts).
Unusual: 52.4 call 345 ITM 2026-04-10 — 4/10 CALL 345 vol 105,808 vs OI 3,594 (29.4x) — heavy ATM activity concentrated into 4/10 expiry, indicates short-dated volatility demand and potential pin action to $355; could be buy-to-open or spreads. 53.5 call 340 ITM 2026-04-10 — 4/10 CALL 340 vol 79,395 vs OI 3,394 (23.4x) — reinforces heavy short-dated positioning around current spot.
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long stock | Moderate-Weak | Buy TSLA shares at market (Spot $345.62) | High IV and negative GEX can amplify drawdowns; consider hedges |
| Short stock | Moderate | Short TSLA shares into strength toward $355–$360 | Sharp squeezes into call OI wall $370–$500; margin and gamma costs |
| Covered call | Moderate-Weak | Buy stock + sell 2026-05-22 370 call | Capped upside; elevated IV reduces premium efficiency |
| Cash-secured put / put spread | Moderate-Strong | Sell 2026-04-24 (15d) 340/330 put spread | Break < $330 accelerates losses; negative GEX amplifies downside |
| Long call (directional) | Moderate-Weak | Buy 2026-05-22 370 call | Expensive IV and large call OI crowding; time decay and IV crush risk near events |
| Long put / bear put spread | Moderate | Buy 2026-04-24 350/340 bear put spread | Costly debit in high IV; needs realized move to pay off |
| Iron condor (short premium) | Moderate-Strong | Sell 2026-04-24 330/320P x 360/370C iron condor | Large IV can widen wings; rallies above 370 or crash below 320 break structure |
| Calendar / diagonal | Moderate-Strong | Sell near-term 2026-04-10 345 call, buy 2026-05-22 345 call (sell higher IV short-dated, buy 30–45d lower IV) — vol diff ~+5 pts | Short leg pin risk into 4/10; requires theta bleed on short leg and stability |
| PMCC / LEAPS diagonal | Moderate | Buy 2027-01-15 350 LEAP, sell 2026-04-24 355 call (covered approx) | Capital intensive; roll risk and wide IV term structure |
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Tactical Summary
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