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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $386.42EOD only
Max Pain
$380.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$22.65
5.9% from close
Price Gap
-6.42
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
34
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.76
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 21, 2026 close
TSLA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bias: modestly bullish — positive dealer GEX and strong DEX buying with spot above midpoint and nearby pin cluster (382–390) favor continuation toward 400–416 over 1–2 weeks, though elevated IV and pin-driven chop can produce re-pins and range-bound moves.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Positive GEX/flow, spot > midpoint, concentrated pin levels; tempered by elevated IV and event risk.
Supports: Positive dealer GEX, bullish flow, spot > midpoint, pin cluster 382–390.
Conflicts: Elevated IV increases mean-reversion risk; gamma flip far below spot limits strong dealer support once move becomes large.
📌Pin cluster at $382–$390 driving near-term magnet
📈Dealer GEX +$87M with DEX net long exposure supportive of upside
⚠️IV rich vs VIX ~19 — premium elevated, raising chop and tail-costs

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High IV vs typical — options premium elevated relative to VIX ~19.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Dealers are net long gamma around current spot (GEX +$87M), which provides pinning/support near strikes; gamma sign flips ~300 (well below spot), where dealers become net short gamma and support fades if price moves that far down.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Net bullish premium flow and DEX buying dominate; skew shows put concentration below spot.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot ~1.3% above midpoint, creating mild upward bias with attraction to nearby strikes.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Persistent dealer long-gamma and concentrated pin levels plus sustained flow favor a multi-week tilt.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$366.96$408.06
Pinning 382–388; expect chop with slight upside bias.
Next 1 week
$364.84$410.19
Dealer long-gamma and flow favor move toward 400–410 if macro holds.
Next 2 weeks
$358.44$416.59
Continued flow and pin clusters support retest of 410–416 absent IV-driven drawdown.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $382 (2026-04-24); $388 (2026-04-27); $390 (2026-04-29)
EM guardrails: 2d $366.96/$408.06; 1w $364.84/$410.19
Support: $382.50 · $358.44
Resistance: $400.00 · $410.00 · $416.59
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,016 (22.6% below spot)
Structural: 2d: 366.96/408.06; 1w: 364.84/410.19. Support: 382.5, 358.44. Resistance: 400, 410, 416.59. Gamma flip ~300 below spot.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+87.2M

DEX: +122.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,016 (22.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$87.2M — dealers net long gamma around spot (providing pinning/support near strike clusters); DEX net +122.9M shares long. Gamma flips to net-short ~300, reducing dealer support if price falls that far.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is rich vs VIX ~19 — idiosyncratic premium elevated, raising cost of selling premium and tail risk.

Term structure: Front-month IV elevated with a mild term decline; near-dated expiries show kinks around short-dated max-pain dates.

Skew: Put-heavy skew below spot — consider directional skew trades or selling across skew if comfortable with pin risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium outflow — buy-side paid premium (aggressive call buys/spreads), supporting a bullish read.

Directional prints: 73.8 call 390 OTM 2026-04-24 — Very large sweep (62.7k vol, 7.7k OI) — likely aggressor buys or call-heavy debit spreads; bullish pressure. 74.5 call 392.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — High volume (32.7k) vs OI (3.13k) — consistent with aggressive call accumulation/roll (buy-side). 72.8 put 315 OTM 2026-04-27 — Elevated activity (28.3k vol vs low OI) — likely one-off protective put buys or structured sells; modest bearish hedge.

Unusual: 80.9 put 332.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — 10.1k vol vs 1.25k OI and very high IV — sizable tail protection or directional put demand (buy-side). 117.2 call 515 OTM 2026-04-24 — 9k vol vs ~916 OI — far-OTM lottery/dispersion call buying activity.

Risks & Catalysts

!IV spike from earnings/news causing rapid repricing
!Breakdown below 358 invalidates bullish pin thesis
!Macro sell-off reversing dealer flow

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-15 $382.50/$365.00 put spread
Why now: Modestly bullish flow, net premium outflow, spot above 382–390 pin cluster; defined-risk sell captures theta while participation biased up.
IV spikes or breakdown below 358 can rapidly flip P/L
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-05-15 $397.50/$425.00 call spread
Why now: Aggressive call buys and large sweep at 390 signal continued upside; defined debit limits downside if IV rises.
Expensive IV and chop may cap gains; rapid IV repricing hurts debit fills
Bullish risk reversalModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-05-15 $402.50 call / sell 2026-05-15 $370.00 put
Why now: Large call sweeps indicate upside demand; use reversal to lever upside with cost offset.
Large IV reprice on news; short put assignment risk
Cash-secured putModerate
Sell 2026-05-22 $365.00 cash-secured put
Why now: Bullish mid-term bias and strong call demand; use cash-secured put as income/entry plan.
IV spike and sudden drop causing assignment

Top Plays

#1
Short put credit (May 15 382.5/365)
Sell 2026-05-15 $382.50/$365.00 put spread
Defined-risk short put spread collects theta while bias favors continuation toward 400–416 over 1–2 weeks.
Why this play: Best risk-reward given spot above 382–390 pin, dealer GEX supportive and net premium outflow.
Credit: $6.23-$7.62
Max loss: $9.88
BE: $374.88
Mgmt: Close or roll if price breaks and holds below 382.5; trim into fast IV spikes; take max gain if spread expires OTM.
Income-oriented bulls wanting limited risk and positive theta.
#2
Bull call spread (May 15 397.5/425)
Buy 2026-05-15 $397.50/$425.00 call spread
Vertical call spread leverages expected continuation with defined loss if IV rises.
Why this play: Directly expresses upside from large call sweeps with capped debit risk.
Debit: $7.20-$8.80
Max loss: $8.80
BE: $406.30
Mgmt: Take partial profits into strength toward 416; cut if price re-tests and closes below 382.5 or IV doubles.
Directional bulls who prefer capped loss and participation to the upside.
#3
Bullish risk reversal (May 15 402.5C / 370P)
Buy 2026-05-15 $402.50 call / sell 2026-05-15 $370.00 put
Synthetic long with high upside leverage but large put assignment risk if trend fails.
Why this play: Maximizes upside exposure funded by put sale reflecting strong call demand.
Debit: $2.12-$2.59
Max loss: $370.00
BE: $370.00
Mgmt: Monitor put-side delta; hedge or unwind if price closes persistently below 382.5 or macro sell-off.
Aggressive traders seeking leveraged directional exposure and willing to hold/assign puts.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot ≥382.5 AND spot stays within 382–390 for ≥3 trading days (close price in range each day) → THEN sell put credit spread: sell 5/15 382.5/365, cash-secured, target net credit 6.23–7.62; max risk defined; size <= 2% portfolio
IFIF spot >395 AND 5-day price change >+1.5% AND 30-day IV ≤1.5×60-day IV → THEN buy bull call spread: buy 5/15 397.5 / sell 5/15 425, entry premium 7.2–8.8, max cost limit 1.5% portfolio
IFIF call sweep volume >500 contracts in 24h AND short-put assignment acceptable → THEN open bullish risk reversal: buy 5/15 402.5C / sell 5/15 370P cash-secured; cap short-put size so assigned position ≤2% portfolio; if assigned, immediately establish covered-long or roll short put down to ~30D 15–25 delta for net credit
Exit Triggers
EXITIF price breaks and holds below 382.5 for 2 consecutive trading days OR 30-day IV >2×60-day IV OR systemic macro shock → THEN priority actions: 1) Close defined-risk bullish spreads first (take profits/losses) 2) Close or buy back short naked/cash-secured puts if price breach persists 3) If continuing exposure desired, hedge remaining position with buy put spread (10–15 delta) or roll short puts down 1 strike and extend 30–45 days; size hedges to cover ≥75% notional exposure

Tactical Summary

Modestly bullish multi-week bias. Prefer defined-risk put-credit and capped-call participation. Use numeric IV and price thresholds for entries; enforce cash-secured short-put sizing and a clear exit priority: close spreads, remove/roll short puts, then hedge if stress persists.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on April 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.