TSLA
Tesla, Inc.Close $433.59EOD onlyThis page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
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You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.
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Neutral-to-bearish with short-term downside risk but upward pinning pressure toward $360; Confidence: 6.5/10. Primary supports: large negative GEX (-$71.4M) implying dealer trend-following / momentum, concentrated put buying at 360/355 producing heavy premium (net premium -$376.9M), and rising max-pain ladder (360→400) that creates upside magnet at near expiries; conflict: P/C ratios <1 and DEX +122.6K share accumulation suggesting some buy-side accumulation.
Conflicts: 1) Net premium negative (-$376.9M) and P/C vol 0.69 indicate more call buying vs put buying on volume but dominated by outsized put premium at specific strikes; 2) Avg IV 63.7% is high, favoring buyers of protection but penalizing selling if realized vol spikes.
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $-71.4M
DEX: +122.6M shares
Gamma flip: N/A
NTM gamma: Near-term: dealers net NEGATIVE gamma overall (-$71.4M) so they will sell into strength and buy into weakness; concentrated positive GEX pockets at $355/$357.5/$360 (~+$8.6M) act as local pin magnets — if spot moves +2% to ~$350–350, dealer selling will accelerate toward the $355–360 pins; if spot moves -2% to ~$336, dealer buying likely cushions but negative GEX amplifies further moves down if realized vol spikes.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: Avg IV 63.7% is rich vs broad-market VIX regime (VIX not provided but IV absolute is high) — protection is expensive; prefer targeted long protection only for tail risk.
Term structure: Front-end elevated then mid-term hump: 2d ATM 53.2% → 5–12d ~44–46% then 16d ATM 53.8% indicating short-dated event and a mid-term re-vol; calendar/diagonal opportunities exist between 5–16d expiries.
Skew: Notable put demand at 360–355 and large IV on deep-pocket calls 400–500; mispriced opportunity: sell inflated short-dated puts/calls around 350–365 against longer-dated bought protection (sell 4/10 leg IV ~52–55, buy 4/24 leg IV ~53.8 — small edge but term kink exists).
Flow Analysis
Net premium: Net premium negative $-376.9M (buyers of premium), P/C vol 0.69; institutional activity concentrated in specific strikes (360/355/350).
Directional prints: 51.5 put 347.5 ITM 4/10 — Heavy vol 23,808 vs OI 1,549 (15.4x) — could be large directional put buy (protection) or assignment hedging; consistent with observed large put premium at 360/355 — interpretation: institutional protection (buy puts) is more consistent. 52.9 call 350 OTM 4/10 — Volume 59,245 OI 5,614 (10.6x): large call flow into 4/10 350 could be directional call buying or dealer hedging; given net premium and put skew, likely dealers/unwind or spread activity rather than pure bullish accumulation.
Unusual: 83.2 put 280 OTM 4/13 — Vol 2,579 vs OI 113 (22.8x) — long-dated tactical tail protection or speculative cheap deep put accumulation; rare and expensive IV signals focused tail hedging.
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long stock | Moderate-Weak | Buy TSLA shares at market | Negative GEX can amplify drawdowns; requires conviction >30d toward higher MP and heavy capital. |
| Short stock | Moderate | Short TSLA at market or via small size | Dealer negative gamma can exacerbate rallies into 355–360 pins; margin and borrow risk. |
| Covered call | Moderate-Weak | Sell 4/10 350 call against long shares | Call can be exercised into rally to 355–360; limited upside capped by MP. |
| Cash-secured put / put spread | Moderate-Strong | Sell 5/22 330/320 put spread (30–44 DTE preference) | Break below $321.62 EM invalidates and widens losses. |
| Long calls | Moderate-Weak | Buy 4/24 360 call (buy longer-dated to avoid pinch) | High IV; time premium expensive; subject to vol crush if pin holds. |
| Long puts / bear put spread | Moderate-Strong | Buy 4/13 345/330 bear put spread (5d–6d tactical) | If pin holds near 360, spread decays; requires near-term downside realization. |
| Iron condor | Moderate | Sell 4/10 355/345 put fly? (prefer defined wings) — implement as 355/345 put spread + 360/375 call spread 4/10 | IV spike or move past wings (below 345 or above 360) causes losses; negative GEX raises tail risk. |
| Calendar / diagonal | Moderate-Strong | Sell near 4/10 355 call IV~53.4, buy 4/24 355 call IV~53.8 — sell leg has slightly lower IV but term hump supports diagonal pick (sell near-term, buy mid-term) | Small vol differential; needs time and limited spot movement to realize theta capture. |
| PMCC / LEAPS diagonal | Moderate-Strong | Buy 1/15/27 400 call LEAP, sell 4/10 360 call near-term as covered call leg (LEAPS diagonal) | Long-dated gamma/vega exposure expensive but reduces roll risk; requires long-term upside thesis. |
| Sell short-dated premium (iron fly / put spread debit offloads) | Moderate-Weak | Sell 4/10 360 put (OTM/near) credit or defined put spread 360/350 | Selling into heavy put demand at 360 is risky; negative GEX can amplify losses on quick moves. |
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Tactical Summary
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