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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $426.01EOD only

Max Pain

$415.00

Next expiry May 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$9.85

2.3% from close

Price Gap

-11.01

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.74

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

TSLA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias driven by strong dealer gamma (+$257M GEX) and bullish flow, with pinning to weekly max pain near $420-$425. Spot above MP (3.2%) suggests slight drag but within attraction zone. High vol regime supports momentum but limits upside due to pinning. Confidence high at 8.5.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive pinning; -0.5 spot 3.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17 low

Supports: Bullish flow, dealer long gamma, VIX moderate, price ranges above key supports
Conflicts: Spot above MP creates mild headwind, high vol regime may cap gains

🛡️Pinning to $420-$425 max pain this week

📈Bullish flow and $257M GEX aligned

⚠️Spot 3.2% above MP may slow upside

📉Resistance at $450-$467.76 from structural levels

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV regime, typical for TSLA around event weeks; elevated implied vol supports premium selling but also potential for sharp moves.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive gamma ($+257M GEX) with pinning effect to weekly max pain; dealers hedge dynamically, suppressing volatility and attracting price toward $420-$425.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow with net long premium, consistent with call buying or put selling, reinforcing dealer long gamma position.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max pain ($420) by ~3.2%, creating moderate dealer hedging drag but still within pinning attraction range toward expiration.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Pinning to weekly max pain (expiry 2026-05-29) drives short-term directional action; longer-term ranges may become relevant after expiration.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$425.39$441.79

Range $425.39-$441.79; pinning to $425 but upside drift supported by dealer gamma

Next 1 week

$415.64$451.54

Range $415.64-$451.54; resistance at $450 may cap, but flow bullish

Next 2 weeks

$399.41$467.76

Range $399.41-$467.76; structural resistance at $467.76, support at $399.41

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $420 (2026-05-26); $425 (2026-05-27); $415 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $425.39/$441.79; 1w $415.64/$451.54

Support: $420.00 · $399.41

Resistance: $450.00 · $467.76

Structural: Support $420 (max pain) and $399.41 (2w low); resistance $450 (structural) and $467.76 (2w high). EM guardrails: 2d $425.39/$441.79, 1w $415.64/$451.54.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+257.1M

DEX: +131.5M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers net long gamma (+$257.1M GEX) and long delta (+131.5M DEX), indicating bullish hedging posture and pinning toward max pain levels.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TSLA IV is high relative to VIX (17), typical for volatile names; IV likely rich but supported by event risk this week.

Term structure: Short-dated options elevated around weekly expiry (2026-05-29); contango likely further out. Event kink at expiry.

Skew: Put skew likely elevated due to hedging; consider selling upside calls if pinning holds, but no specific data.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Bullish, $808.9M net premium, P/C vol ratio 0.47 favoring calls.

Directional prints: 6.7 call 432.5 ITM 2026-05-26 — Vol 284k vs OI 1.6k (173.6x). Likely bought aggressively, bullish bet near ATM. 3.3 call 435 OTM 2026-05-26 — Vol 298k vs OI 4.3k (69.9x). Heavy call buying, bullish on upside. 48.1 call 405 ITM 2026-05-27 — Vol 14.6k vs OI 263 (55.6x). ITM call buying, directional bullish.

Unusual: 4.2 put 432.5 OTM 2026-05-26 — Vol 94.7k vs OI 481 (196.9x). Possibly sold as hedge or closing; bearish if new. 8.3 put 430 OTM 2026-05-26 — Vol 192.8k vs OI 2.1k (92.8x). Near worthless; likely sold for premium, bearish tilt. 6.7 call 432.5 ITM 2026-05-26 — Vol 284.8k vs OI 1.6k (173.6x). Explosive call buying, strongly bullish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $420 support could trigger gamma flip and selloff

!Unexpected corporate news or macro shock

!Volatility expansion beyond guardrails ($415-$452)

!Failure to hold above MP due to excessive dealer hedging

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-08-21 $420.00/$510.00 call spread Why now: High confidence bullish bias, flow shows aggressive call buying, pinning near max pain supports grind higher.	Upside capped at short strike; break below $420 invalidates thesis.
Bullish risk reversal	Strong	Buy 2026-08-21 $450.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $400.00 put Why now: Bullish flow and dealer gamma support, risk reversal captures upside skew cheaply.	Unlimited downside if stock drops sharply below short put strike.
Call calendar	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-12 $450.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $450.00 call Why now: High near-term vol vs back-month, bullish bias supports long gamma in back-month.	If stock moves significantly before short expiration, can lose on both legs.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $420.00/$510.00 call spread

Aggressive call buying and gamma support suggest modest upside.

Why this play: Best defined-risk play with high confidence in grind higher; aggressive flow supports.

Debit: $27.88-$34.07

Max loss: $34.07

BE: $454.07

Mgmt: Exit at 50% gain or if spot breaks $420.

Risk-conscious bullish traders.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-08-21 $450.00 call / sell 2026-08-21 $400.00 put

Cheap way to express bullish bias with minimal upfront cost.

Why this play: Captures upside skew cheaply; unlimited gain potential.

Debit: $11.03-$13.48

Max loss: $400.00

BE: $400.00

Mgmt: Roll if spot drops near $400; take profit on call.

Aggressive traders seeking leverage.

Call Calendar

Sell 2026-06-12 $450.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $450.00 call

Profits if near-term vol falls while back-month vol rises.

Why this play: Benefiting from high near-term vol vs back-month; less direct.

Debit: $22.00-$26.90

Max loss: $26.90

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Close if vol spread narrows or spot breaks invalidation.

Traders betting on vol contraction after near-term events.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $420 support → THEN enter bull call spread (buy 2026-08-21 $420/$510 call spread)

IFIF spot maintains above $420 and bullish flow persists → THEN enter bullish risk reversal (buy 2026-08-21 $450 call / sell $400 put)

IFIF near-term vol high relative to back-month and spot above $420 → THEN enter call calendar (sell 2026-06-12 $450 call / buy 2026-08-21 $450 call)

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot breaks below $420 invalidation → THEN exit all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with high confidence; maintain long exposure while spot above $420. Key resistance $450; watch for gamma flip below $420. Use defined-risk spreads for entry, exit on break of support.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.