Home Options TSLAReports

TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $375.53EOD only

Max Pain

$395.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$11.38

3.0% from close

Price Gap

+19.47

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.71

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 24, 2026 close

TSLA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Near-term bullish bias toward $390 max pain pin, supported by dealer gamma hedging and positive DEX, but high vol and mixed flow cap upside.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow -0.5 spot 3.8% +0.5 VIX 19 = 7.0. GEX/flow aligned adds 2; spot near MP and low VIX add 0.5.

Supports: Dealer long delta (+110.2M shares) and negative GEX (-$10.1M) create pin action to $390 max pain.
Conflicts: High vol, mixed flow, spot 3.8% below MP cap upside.

🔴Negative gamma: Dealers amplify moves due to hedging.

🟢DEX long: Net long delta supportive of reversal.

🟡Max pain pull: Spot 3.8% below $390 pin.

🟣Mixed flow: No clear directional conviction.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol: IV elevated due to event risk and spot volatility.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending gamma: Negative GEX (-$10.1M) implies dealers short gamma, increasing volatility.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: Net premium unclear; put-heavy skew but no dominant directional bet.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Below: Spot trading below max pain $390, with 3.8% gap.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Upcoming OPEX on 06/26 creates pin action to $390 max pain, dominating short-term price action.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$367.19$383.04

Expiration pull to $390 may be capped at $383.

Next 1 week

$358.54$391.69

Post-OPEX drift toward $391.69 resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$348.99$401.24

Wider range with support $348.99 and resistance $401.24.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $390 (2026-06-26); $390 (2026-06-29); $385 (2026-07-01)

EM guardrails: 2d $367.19/$383.04; 1w $358.54/$391.69

Support: $348.99

Resistance: $390.00 · $400.00 · $401.24

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,498 (20.0% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins: $390 (06/26), $390 (06/29), $385 (07/01). Support 348.99, resistance 390/400/401.24. Gamma flip ~$300.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-10.1M

DEX: +110.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,498 (20.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$10.1M (negative gamma), DEX +110.2M shares (long delta). Gamma flip ~$300. Dealers short gamma, long delta; pin action to key strikes.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TSLA IV elevated vs VIX (19), implied ~40%, reflecting event risk and high vol regime.

Term structure: Steep contango into OPEX, flattening after; short-term IV elevated.

Skew: Put skew elevated; opportunity to sell put spreads near $350 support for theta decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net negative -$503.8M, P/C vol 0.93, OI 0.72; mixed put/call activity suggests hedging rather than directional bias.

Directional prints: 56.7 put 405 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 62.7k, OI 1.85k, vol/OI 33.9. Possibly bought as hedge or bearish bet; if sold, bearish. Likely bought. 35.5 put 372.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 65.3k, OI 2.62k, vol/OI 24.9. High vol relative OI, new positions. Bearish if bought, bullish if sold. Prefer bought.

Unusual: 37.4 call 375 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 64.1k, OI 2.03k, vol/OI 31.6. High ratio, likely new opening. Bullish if bought, bearish if sold. Prefer bought. 38.7 call 370 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 32.6k, OI 1k, vol/OI 32.3. Elevated vol suggests aggressive positioning. Likely bought. 36.6 call 377.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 40.9k, OI 1.35k, vol/OI 30.3. High vol/OI, potential new bullish bets. Prefer bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot moves away from $390 max pain pin

!Vol spike on macro shock

!Gamma flip at $300 triggers cascade

!Mixed flow shifts decisively bearish

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-24 $400.00/$415.00 call spread Why now: Bias toward $390 max pain; spread cuts cost and vega.	Capped upside if rally exceeds short strike.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-24 $370.00/$345.00 put spread Why now: Dealer gamma and positive DEX support near $390; define risk.	Loss if spot drops below short put strike.
Call calendar	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-24 $405.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $405.00 call Why now: Vol contango; capture decay and maintain directional upside.	Large spot move against short leg causes losses.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-24 $400.00/$415.00 call spread

Captures upside to $415 with limited cost and risk.

Why this play: Best aligns with near-term bullish bias toward $390 max pain; defined risk and low vega suit volatile environment.

Debit: $3.33-$4.07

Max loss: $4.07

BE: $404.07

Mgmt: Exit if spot drops below $348.99; take profit near $390.

Short-term bullish traders seeking defined risk.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-24 $370.00/$345.00 put spread

Sells put spread at support, profits if TSLA stays above $370.

Why this play: Capitalizes on dealer gamma support and positive DEX; benefits from time decay with defined risk.

Credit: $7.81-$9.54

Max loss: $15.46

BE: $360.46

Mgmt: Close early if vol spikes or gamma flips at $300.

Neutral-to-bullish traders collecting premium.

Call Calendar

Sell 2026-07-24 $405.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $405.00 call

Sells near-term call, buys later call to profit from decay and volatility.

Why this play: Exploits vol contango and time decay; maintains upside if sustained.

Debit: $6.48-$7.92

Max loss: $7.92

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Monitor gamma; exit early if near-term call is tested.

Volatility traders expecting flat-to-slight upside near term.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot bounces from support at 348.99 and trades above 370 → THEN buy 2026-07-24 $400/$415 bull call spread near $3.70

IFIF spot confirms support above 348.99 within 2 sessions → THEN sell 2026-07-24 $340/$330 put credit spread for net credit near $1.50

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF spot reaches $390 resistance with high volume → THEN take 50% profit on bull call spread and tighten stop on put credit spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot breaks below 348.99 → THEN exit all positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Near-term bullish bias toward $390 max pain; use bull call spread for upside, put credit spread for premium. Invalidation at 348.99. Adjust at $390 resistance. Duration: event-specific (earnings 7/22, ~27 days).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.