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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $379.71EOD only

Max Pain

$380.00

Next expiry Jun 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.70

2.3% from close

Price Gap

+0.29

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.71

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 26, 2026 close

TSLA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias over next 1-2 weeks supported by bullish flow, positive GEX pinning, and low VIX. Spot above max pain but 8.4% away, creating risk of mean reversion. Event-specific expiry pin at $380-385 keeps upside contained short-term.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive; -1 spot far from MP; +1 VIX 18

Supports: Bullish flow, positive GEX $+183.5M, low VIX 18, spot above MP
Conflicts: Spot 8.4% above max pain, gamma flip at $300 far below

📈Bullish flow + positive GEX pinning encourage upside drift

⚠️Spot 8.4% above $380 MP; pin risk near expiration

📊VIX 17.65 low; IV likely rich but event-driven

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Vol is High; IV elevated relative to typical range, VIX at 17.65 supports active options market

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive GEX $+183.5M, pinning near $380 max pain, gamma flip at ~$300 (far below)

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow net premium positive, P/C ratio indicates call buying

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max pain by 8.4%, upward bias but risk of pin to $380-385

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Key weekly expirations 2026-06-29 to 2026-07-02 with max pain pins at $380-385

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$398.96$424.71

Range $398.96-$424.71; gamma support at $380, resistance at upper band

Next 1 week

$392.54$431.14

Range $392.54-$431.14; expiration pinning near $380-385, upside to $431

Next 2 weeks

$379.04$444.64

Range $379.04-$444.64; focus on $420 resistance, $380 support

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $380 (2026-06-29); $380 (2026-07-01); $385 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $398.96/$424.71; 1w $392.54/$431.14

Support: $380.00 · $379.04

Resistance: $420.00 · $430.00 · $444.64

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,591 (27.2% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins: $380 (2026-06-29), $380 (2026-07-01), $385 (2026-07-02). EM guardrails: 2d $398.96/$424.71; 1w $392.54/$431.14. Support $380, $379; Resistance $420, $430, $445

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+183.5M

DEX: +122.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,591 (27.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX $+183.5M, DEX +122.5M shares, gamma flip ~$300. Dealers long gamma, pinning near $380

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 17.65 due to event risk, but in line for high vol regime

Term structure: Assumed contango; no data provided, likely steep near expiration

Skew: Put skew elevated on downside; consider put spreads for pin protection

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Bullish, ~$1.99B net premium, P/C vol ratio 0.73.

Directional prints: 9 call 410 ITM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 86x, massive call volume on expiry. Likely opening new bullish positions. Preferred bought. 0 call 407.5 ITM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 91.7x, ITM call volume. Likely bullish positioning or covering. Preferred bought.

Unusual: 9.2 put 407.5 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 662x, near-zero premium. Extreme volume on OTM put. Likely closing short puts. Neutral if sold. 30.9 put 395 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 250x, OTM put with elevated IV. Unusual volume, possibly hedging. Preferred read: bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot drops below gamma flip at $300

!Earnings or macro event disrupts pin

!Broad market selloff (SPY/QQQ) reverses bullish flow

!Pin to $380 limits upside for longs

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-02 $420.00/$422.50 call spread Why now: Low vol, bullish skew, earnings catalyst aligns with DTE 25 for follow-through.	Limited upside if stock stalls; max loss equals debit paid.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-02 $380.00/$377.50 put spread Why now: Low IV environment favors premium collection; defined risk protects tail.	Max loss if stock drops below short put; width small.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-02 $380.00 cash-secured put Why now: Bullish bias with high probability of staying above 390; cash-secured limits risk.	Opportunity cost if stock rallies sharply; assignment if below strike.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread at $420/$422.50

Buy 2026-07-02 $420.00/$422.50 call spread

Buy call spread to cap upside but profit from directional move above $420.

Why this play: Best alignment with bullish bias, earnings catalyst, and low IV; limited risk with high reward ratio.

Debit: $0.72-$0.88

Max loss: $0.88

BE: $420.88

Mgmt: Exit at 50% loss or take profit near max; adjust if spot drops below $400.

Aggressive traders seeking leveraged upside with defined risk.

Cash-Secured Put at $380

Sell 2026-07-02 $380.00 cash-secured put

Sell put to collect premium with intent to buy shares if assigned at discount.

Why this play: High probability of staying above $380 support; collects premium with bullish view.

Credit: $0.68-$0.83

Max loss: $379.17

BE: $379.17

Mgmt: Roll if spot approaches $390; accept assignment if below $380.

Income-focused traders comfortable holding shares below market.

Put Credit Spread at $380/$377.50

Sell 2026-07-02 $380.00/$377.50 put spread

Sell put spread to collect premium with limited downside protection.

Why this play: Defined risk alternative to cash-secured put, but lower premium makes it less attractive.

Credit: $0.11-$0.13

Max loss: $2.37

BE: $379.87

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit; avoid expiration if spot near $380.

Risk-averse traders wanting defined max loss.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot holds above $380 support (1w EM guardrail $392.54 holds) → THEN sell 2026-07-02 $380 cash-secured put at $0.68-$0.83

IFIF spot breaks and holds above $420 resistance → THEN buy 2026-07-02 $420/$422.5 bull call spread at $0.72-$0.88

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot closes below $380 → THEN exit all bullish positions (close bull call spread, buy back put) immediately

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias next 1-2 weeks; spot ~412 (8.4% above max pain $380). Key support $380, resistance $420. Top plays: bull call spread on $420 breakout, cash-secured put at $380. Invalidation below $380.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.