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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $400.49EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry Jun 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.32
2.3% from close
Price Gap
-0.49
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.69
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
TSLA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

TSLA sits in a high-vol, gamma-pinning regime with spot above Max Pain ($398) and mixed flow. Pinning pressure favors mean reversion toward $398, but resistance at $420 and high vol limit upside. Near-term bearish bias, neutral over 1-2 weeks.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 5 adjusted: -1 GEX/flow contradict, +1 pinning gamma, +0.5 spot 1.9% from MP, +1 VIX 17.
Supports: Gamma pinning at $398; VIX 17; spot near support $397.5; EM guardrails contain range.
Conflicts: Mixed flow; resistance at $420/$430; high vol may trigger breakouts.
🖇️Gamma pin at $398 across June expiries
🔥High vol (Vix 17) makes options rich; sellers favored
📉Spot above MP, mean-reversion short-term bias

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Vol is High; VIX at 17.28 supports elevated implied vol regime, with potential for options premium expansion.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Gamma is Pinning; net gamma +$170.7M (dealer long gamma) with key pin at $398 Max Pain across multiple expiries.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Flow is Mixed; net premium context unclear, put/call ratio not provided but overall dealer positioning suggests positive gamma.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot is Above Max Pain ($398); 1.9% above, within pinning attraction zone, favoring drift toward $398.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — No single event catalyzes; structural gamma pinning and mixed flow suggest extended range-bound behavior.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$393.57$416.52
Resistance at $416.52, gamma pin at $398, spot above MP.
Next 1 week
$386.45$423.65
Range $386.45-$423.65, max pain at $398, mixed flow.
Next 2 weeks
$374.15$435.95
Wider range $374.15-$435.95, key support $374.15 resistance $435.95.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $398 (2026-06-22); $398 (2026-06-24); $400 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 2d $393.57/$416.52; 1w $386.45/$423.65
Support: $397.50 · $374.15
Resistance: $420.00 · $430.00 · $435.95
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,319 (25.9% below spot)
Structural: Max Pain: $398 (Jun22,24,26); EM guardrails: 2d $393.57/$416.52, 1w $386.45/$423.65; Support: $397.5, $374.15; Resistance: $420, $430, $435.95; Gamma flip ~$300.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+170.7M

DEX: +114.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,319 (25.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$170.7M, DEX +114.3M shares, gamma flip ~$300 (put OI concentration 20,319 contracts 25.9% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is high relative to VIX (17.28), indicating rich premium. Options sellers favored with elevated implied vol.

Term structure: Likely contango due to high vol regime; near-term volatility elevated, longer-dated backwardation possible if event risk absent.

Skew: Put skew elevated from demand; sell puts at $300 gamma flip for premium decay, or sell call spreads above $420 resistance.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$7.6M from heavy put buying indicates bearish flow, even though put/call volume ratio 0.86 shows more calls traded.

Directional prints: 14.1 put 407.5 ITM 2026-06-22 — Vol/OI 207x, heavy new put buying; likely bearish. 4.4 put 405 OTM 2026-06-22 — Vol/OI 161x, aggressive put buying; bearish.

Unusual: 14.1 put 407.5 ITM 2026-06-22 — Vol/OI 207x, highest ratio; heavy put accumulation. 4.4 put 405 OTM 2026-06-22 — Vol/OI 161x, significant put buying. 25 put 412.5 ITM 2026-06-22 — Vol/OI 120x, large put position opening.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma pin breakdown: sharp move if spot breaks $393.57 support or $416.52 resistance.
!High vol regime: sudden volatility expansion can break ranges.
!Mixed flow: conflicting signals reduce directional conviction.
!Earnings/event risk: no specific event but any news could disrupt pinning.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-24 $380.00/$355.00 put spread
Why now: Bearish flow and gamma pinning favor downside; defined-risk put spread limits vega exposure in high vol.
Limited profit if spot stays above short strike; gamma risk if support breaks quickly.
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-26 $410.00/$400.00 put spread
Why now: Heavy put flow and gamma pinning support mean reversion lower; bear put spread limits upside risk.
Upside move above long put strike if momentum reverses. Substitutions: long_put: resolved contract 2025-07-18 $410.00 missing; used 2026-06-26 $410.00.; short_put: resolved contract 2025-07-18 $400.00 missing; used 2026-06-26 $400.00.

Top Plays

#1
Bear put spread
Buy 2026-07-24 $380.00/$355.00 put spread
Captures downside mean reversion toward Max Pain with wider strikes for higher probability.
Why this play: Aligns with bearish flow and gamma pinning; defined risk limits vega in high vol.
Debit: $5.33-$6.52
Max loss: $6.52
BE: $373.48
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $420 invalidation; consider early close on vol spike.
Traders expecting gradual decline with limited upside risk.
#2
Bear put spread
Buy 2026-06-26 $410.00/$400.00 put spread
Expresses directional bearish bias within high-vol regime, defined risk.
Why this play: Supports near-term bearish move with tight spread; lower max gain but lower risk.
Debit: $4.54-$5.56
Max loss: $5.56
BE: $404.44
Mgmt: Close if spot holds above $410 or if IV collapses; monitor gamma pin.
Short-term bearish traders seeking limited capital at risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf TSLA spot tests $420 resistance and fails to break above → then enter the bear put spread: Buy 2026-07-24 $380/$355 put spread
IFIf TSLA spot breaks below $397.5 support → then enter the bear put spread: Buy 2026-06-26 $410/$400 put spread
Exit Triggers
EXITIf TSLA spot closes above $420 → then exit all bear put spreads (invalidation)

Tactical Summary

Bearish near-term with gamma pinning favoring mean reversion to Max Pain ($398). Use defined-risk bear put spreads: Jul24 $380/$355 (primary) or Jun26 $410/$400 (secondary). Enter on failure at $420 resistance or breakdown below $397.5 support. Exit if spot closes above $420. High vol regime requires strict risk management.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.