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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $404.66EOD only

Max Pain

$410.00

Next expiry Jun 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.65

2.1% from close

Price Gap

+5.34

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.72

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 16, 2026 close

TSLA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

TSLA biased bullish into June OPEX as spot below max pain ($405) and dealer negative gamma (-$129K) with long delta (+134M shares) support pin action. High vol adds caution, but structural positioning favors a rally towards $405. Key risk: break below $373 support.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 VIX at 18. No override.

Supports: Spot below max pain; dealer short gamma/long delta; support at $373
Conflicts: High vol regime; macro weakness (SPY -1.25%)

📈Spot below max pain $405, expect rally into OPEX

⚡Negative dealer gamma (-$129K) amplifies directional moves

⚠️High vol regime increases risk of false breaks

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated relative to recent range, heightened uncertainty

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending gamma with negative dealer gamma (-$129K GEX) amplifies moves

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow aligned with bullish thesis: put activity light, call buying supports upside

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below max pain ($405), implying potential upward drift into expiration

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Spot below max pain with dealer negative gamma suggests pin action to $405 by OPEX (6/17-6/22)

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$387.66$405.11

Expect recovery towards $405 max pain

Next 1 week

$382.66$410.11

Continued drift higher into OPEX

Next 2 weeks

$373.01$419.76

Post-OPEX uncertainty may expand range

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $405 (2026-06-17); $370 (2026-06-18); $405 (2026-06-22)

EM guardrails: 2d $387.66/$405.11; 1w $382.66/$410.11

Support: $373.01

Resistance: $400.00 · $405.00 · $419.76

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,093 (24.3% below spot)

Structural: Support $373.01; resistance $400, $405, $419.76; gamma flip ~$300; max pain $405 (6/17,6/18,6/22)

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-129K

DEX: +134.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,093 (24.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers short gamma (-$129K) with long delta (+134.1M shares), amplifying moves; gamma flip ~$300

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated relative to VIX (18.44), implying event premium

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to OPEX, likely contango

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider selling puts at support for premium decay

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium strongly negative (-$735M) with P/C volume ratio 0.95 and OI ratio 0.70, indicating bearish flow.

Directional prints: 6.8 put 397.5 ITM 2026-06-17 — High vol/OI ratio 72.6 with OI 2242, suggests aggressive put buying; bearish. 15.9 put 400 ITM 2026-06-17 — Vol 228k, OI 5275, ratio 43.3, indicates significant put accumulation; bearish.

Unusual: 12.9 call 402.5 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI ratio 98.5, OI only 1570, extreme activity; likely opening long calls. 17.2 call 405 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI ratio 79.6, OI 2693, massive volume relative to open interest. 6.8 put 397.5 ITM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI ratio 72.6, OI 2242, unusual bearish positioning.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip risk if spot drops to $300

!Unexpected macro gap down

!IV contraction post-OPEX

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-02 $402.50/$417.50 call spread Why now: Defined risk debit spread captures upside with limited cost.	IV crush if no rally; gamma flip below $300.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread TSLA

Buy 2026-07-02 $402.50/$417.50 call spread

Defined risk debit spread targeting upside to max pain $405

Why this play: Only eligible candidate aligned with bullish bias into OPEX

Debit: $4.59-$5.61

Max loss: $5.61

BE: $408.11

Mgmt: Exit if TSLA breaks below $373 support

Traders expecting rally with limited downside risk

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF TSLA holds above $373.01 support and rallies above $400 with volume → THEN enter TSLA 2026-07-02 $402.50/$417.50 bull call spread near ask (entry range $4.59-$5.61)

Exit Triggers

EXITIF TSLA closes below $373.01 → THEN exit the bull call spread immediately to limit loss

EXITIF TSLA reaches $405 (max pain) and shows signs of stalling → THEN exit 50% of the spread to lock in profits

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias into June OPEX with support at $373.01, resistance at $400/$405/$419.76, and max pain at $405. Dealer delta supports upside. Play: bull call spread targeting $402.50-$417.50, risking invalidation below $373. Manage with strict stop and partial exit at $405.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.