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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $406.43EOD only

Max Pain

$400.00

Next expiry Jun 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$13.32

3.3% from close

Price Gap

-6.43

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.69

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 12, 2026 close

TSLA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias this week driven by strong upward momentum, positive dealer gamma pinning near $400, and bullish flow. Spot above max pain favors upside, but resistance at $420/$430 caps near-term. Confidence is high given aligned signals, but gamma flip risk far below warrants caution.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 (trend/vol) +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 gamma pinning +1 low VIX = 9. Formula captures all key factors.

Supports: Bullish flow (net premium positive), positive gamma ($189M), spot above max pain ($400), SPY/QQQ rallies, low VIX (16.2).
Conflicts: Resistance $420/$430, high vol regime (uncertainty), gamma flip at ~$300 (27% below spot).

🔺Bullish flow: call buying dominates, net premium positive.

📌Gamma pinning near $400: dealers long gamma, stability expected.

⚠️High vol regime: IV elevated vs VIX, event risk present.

🛑Resistance at $420 (prior high) and $430 (range high).

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated compared to VIX (16.2) and typical range, indicating high uncertainty and event risk near expiry.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive dealer gamma ($+189.4M) pinning near $400; flip risk far below at ~$300, providing downside buffer.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net bullish premium from call buying, dealers absorbing flow, supporting upward bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max pain ($400) suggests upward pressure, but pinning may pull spot back toward $400.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term weekly expiry (6/15, 6/17, 6/18) and high vol regime point to event-driven price action; gamma pinning and bullish flow support short-term upside.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$398.92$423.37

Test $420 resistance; supported by positive gamma and flow.

Next 1 week

$393.17$429.12

Potential to reach $430 if momentum continues; watch gamma flip.

Next 2 weeks

$379.52$442.77

Wider range $379-442; expiry after June options may reduce dealer support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $400 (2026-06-15); $400 (2026-06-17); $380 (2026-06-18)

EM guardrails: 2d $398.92/$423.37; 1w $393.17/$429.12

Support: $400.00 · $379.52

Resistance: $420.00 · $430.00 · $442.77

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,866 (27.0% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $400 (6/15, 6/17) and $380 (6/18). Support at $400 (max pain) and $379.52 (range low). Resistance at $420, $430, and range high $442.77. Gamma flip at ~$300.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+189.4M

DEX: +125.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,866 (27.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$189.4M (positive), DEX +125M shares long. Gamma flip at ~$300. Dealers long gamma, providing stability near $400.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is rich vs VIX (16.2) due to event risk and expected move; high vol supports directional plays but increases premium cost.

Term structure: Front-end elevated near weekly expiry, backwardation likely; back months lower as uncertainty resolves.

Skew: Put skew elevated; possibly cheap calls for upside. No specific opportunistic trade noted.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $154M bullish with P/C volume ratio 0.70 favoring calls.

Directional prints: 5.8 call 410 ITM 2026-06-15 — Vol 282K, OI 3.1K; heavy call buying at OTM 410, bullish positioning. 3.9 call 412.5 OTM 2026-06-15 — Vol 275K, OI 2.4K; large call accumulation at 412.5, aligns with bullish flow. 8.2 call 415 OTM 2026-06-15 — Vol 213K, OI 3.4K; aggressive call buying OTM 415, indicating upside conviction.

Unusual: 8 put 407.5 OTM 2026-06-15 — Vol/OI 706; massive put selling at deep OTM 407.5, likely sold for premium, neutral/bullish. 4.1 put 410 OTM 2026-06-15 — Vol/OI 458; heavy put selling at 410 strike, reduces downside risk, supportive of bullish view. 23.2 put 417.5 ITM 2026-06-15 — Vol/OI 378; heavy put volume at 417.5, but net premium suggests sold (put writing), consistent with bullish bias.

Risks & Catalysts

!Failure to hold $400 support could trigger gamma flip and sharp drop toward $300.

!Resistance at $420/$430 may stall rally, leading to reversal.

!High vol regime can cause violent moves in either direction, especially near expiry.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Strong	Buy 2026-07-24 $400.00/$435.00 call spread Why now: Defined-risk debit spread capturing post-earnings upside with resistance at $430	Resistance at $420/$430 may cap gains; max loss limited to debit paid
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-24 $420.00 call / sell 2026-07-24 $385.00 put Why now: Premium from short put funds OTM call; benefits from continued upward move post-earnings	Unlimited upside risk from short put if stock drops below strike; margin required
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-24 $375.00/$355.00 put spread Why now: Sell put credit spread near support to collect premium; limited downside if $400 holds	Failure to hold $400 can lead to max loss; resistance may limit upside premium

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-24 $400.00/$435.00 call spread

Buy $400/$435 call spread to profit from moderate upside with limited risk.

Why this play: Defined-risk upside play capturing post-earnings rally to $435, aligned with bullish bias and resistance at $430.

Debit: $13.57-$16.58

Max loss: $16.58

BE: $416.58

Mgmt: Exit if stock falls below $400; target near $430 resistance.

Traders seeking defined risk and moderate upside exposure.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-07-24 $420.00 call / sell 2026-07-24 $385.00 put

Buy $420 call, sell $385 put to gain upside exposure with no upfront cost.

Why this play: Leveraged upside play funded by put premium, suitable for aggressive bulls expecting continued momentum.

Debit: $8.30-$10.15

Max loss: $385.00

BE: $385.00

Mgmt: Monitor delta; close if stock drops below $385 to cap losses.

Aggressive traders comfortable with unlimited upside and downside risk.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-24 $375.00/$355.00 put spread

Sell $375/$355 put spread to earn credit with defined risk.

Why this play: Collects premium near support, benefiting from $400 floor; limited risk if support holds.

Credit: $4.00-$4.90

Max loss: $15.10

BE: $370.10

Mgmt: Roll if stock approaches $375; target max profit at expiry.

Conservative bulls expecting sideways to slight upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF TSLA holds above $400 support level → THEN enter bull call spread: buy 2026-07-24 $400/$435 call spread

IFIF TSLA breaks above $420 resistance with volume → THEN enter bullish risk reversal: buy 2026-07-24 $420 call / sell $385 put

IFIF TSLA pulls back to $400 support and shows bounce → THEN sell 2026-07-24 $375/$355 put credit spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIF TSLA drops below $400 invalidation level → THEN close all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias on TSLA with key support $400 (max pain) and resistance $420/$430. Preferred entry via bull call spread on hold above $400. Aggressive traders can use risk reversal above $420 or put credit spread near support. Exit all if $400 breaks. Manage risk with defined targets.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.