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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $405.05EOD only

Max Pain

$397.50

Next expiry Jun 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$11.47

2.8% from close

Price Gap

-7.55

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.74

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 22, 2026 close

TSLA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish near-term: high vol, negative GEX amplifies downside. Spot below MP $402. Support $352 cushions. Neutral 1-2 weeks.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow; -1 spot vs MP; +0.5 VIX; net 6.5.

Supports: Negative GEX, high vol.
Conflicts: Positive DEX, mixed flow, support.

🔴Dealer short gamma amplifies moves.

🟡Spot $382 vs MP $402 gap.

🟢Support $352 key; break to $300.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol, VIX 19.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending; GEX -$12.1M short gamma.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot 5.2% below MP $402.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — High vol and short gamma structure.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$373.28$389.93

Below MP, bearish.

Next 1 week

$364.76$398.46

Range neutral.

Next 2 weeks

$352.36$410.86

Support key, bearish if break.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $402 (2026-06-24); $400 (2026-06-26); $410 (2026-06-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $373.28/$389.93; 1w $364.76/$398.46

Support: $352.36

Resistance: $400.00 · $402.50 · $410.00

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,300 (21.4% below spot)

Structural: Support $352; resistance $400/$402/$410; gamma flip $300.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-12.1M

DEX: +111.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,300 (21.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$12.1M short gamma; DEX +111.9M shares; flip $300.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX.

Term structure: Contango.

Skew: Put skew steep; bearish spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put premium of $702.8M, P/C vol ratio 0.91, OI ratio 0.73, bearish flow.

Directional prints: 37.4 put 380 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol 91,593, OI 1,884, ratio 48.6. Likely aggressive put buying (bearish).

Unusual: 36.9 call 387.5 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol 42,385, OI 184, ratio 230.3. Extreme vol/OI; likely call selling (bearish). 36.9 call 385 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol 58,724, OI 353, ratio 166.4. High call volume; probable selling (bearish). 37.8 call 380 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol 42,668, OI 294, ratio 145.1. Unusual call volume; likely sold.

Risks & Catalysts

!Rally above $410.

!Gamma flip below $300.

!Macro shock.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-24 $380.00/$350.00 put spread Why now: Defined risk bearish debit spread aligns with bearish flow and vol environment.	Rally above $410 or gamma flip below $300.
Put diagonal	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-10 $365.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $380.00 put Why now: Vol term structure favors front-month premium decay; back-month upside from continued downside.	Sharp rally reverses vol premium; time decay works against back-month.
Long put	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-24 $365.00 put Why now: Bearish flow, negative GEX, and high IV make long put attractive for gamma gains.	Theta decay if stock consolidates; rally above $410.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-24 $380.00/$350.00 put spread

Buy $380/$350 put spread to profit from downside capture with limited risk.

Why this play: Best risk-reward with defined loss and strong alignment with bearish flow and negative GEX.

Debit: $10.01-$12.24

Max loss: $12.24

BE: $367.76

Mgmt: Exit near $350 support or if spot rallies above $400 invalidation.

Traders seeking defined-risk bearish exposure with high probability of success.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-24 $365.00 put

Buy $365 put to benefit from continued downside and potential gamma acceleration.

Why this play: Direct bearish play capitalizing on high IV and negative gamma, but higher cost and risk.

Debit: $11.72-$14.33

Max loss: $14.33

BE: $350.67

Mgmt: Set stop at 50% loss; consider rolling if spot stabilizes above $400.

Aggressive traders willing to risk higher premium for unlimited upside in bear move.

Put Diagonal

Sell 2026-07-10 $365.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $380.00 put

Sell front put decay, buy back put for extended downside exposure.

Why this play: Leverages vol term structure but complexity and variable profit reduce rank.

Debit: $16.92-$20.68

Max loss: $20.68

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Monitor gamma risk; close if spot nears $352 support or IV expands.

Experienced traders comfortable with timing premium decay and directional bias.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot breaks below $380 with bearish momentum → THEN buy 2026-07-24 $380/$350 put spread near $11.00

IFIF spot drops below $370 on high volume → THEN buy 2026-07-24 $365 put near $13.00

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot reaches $352 support or rallies above $400 → THEN exit the bear put spread

Tactical Summary

Bearish near-term, neutral next week. Negative GEX amplifies downside. Support $352; resistance $400/$402/$410. Top plays: bear put spread ($380/$350) and long put ($365). Exit if spot breaches $400 or hits $352.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.