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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $381.61EOD only

Max Pain

$402.50

Next expiry Jun 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.32

2.2% from close

Price Gap

+20.89

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.73

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 23, 2026 close

TSLA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias from short gamma and dealer delta; caution below MP. Event-specific.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 5, +2 GEX/flow, -0.5 spot/MP, +0.5 VIX

Supports: Short gamma, positive delta, VIX
Conflicts: Below MP, mixed flow, resistance

📉Spot 3.1% below MP $388

🚀Short gamma -$107M supercharges upside

⚠️γ flip $300; break below 347.83 is dangerous

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol; IV elevated near op-ex.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending GEX -$107M; short gamma amplifies.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed; net premium unclear.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Below max pain $388; bearish pin.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Op-ex pins 388, 395, 392; gamma flip at 300 support.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$364.15$386.90

Resistance 386.9, need break above 387.5.

Next 1 week

$360.85$390.20

Pin at 395 on 6/26.

Next 2 weeks

$347.83$403.23

To 403.23, risk below 347.83.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $388 (2026-06-24); $395 (2026-06-26); $392 (2026-06-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $364.15/$386.90; 1w $360.85/$390.20

Support: $347.83

Resistance: $387.50 · $400.00 · $403.23

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,309 (20.1% below spot)

Structural: Support 347.83 (γ flip ~300); Resistance 387.5,400,403; MP 388,395,392.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-107.4M

DEX: +113.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,309 (20.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$107M; DEX +113.8M; γ flip ~300 from put OI.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: TSLA IV rich vs VIX 18.6; high vol regime.

Term structure: Contango; kinks at weekly expiries.

Skew: Put skew high from heavy OI.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$704M, P/C vol 0.86, bearish put-heavy flow.

Directional prints: 5.2 put 375 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol 178k/OI 5.9k (30x); heavy put buying implies downside protection or bearish speculation. 11.3 call 380 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol 149k/OI 2.5k (60x); massive OTM call volume, likely sold for premium collection given net bearish flow. 14.1 put 377.5 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol 106k/OI 3.2k (33x); put buying reinforces bearish sentiment near ATM.

Unusual: 5.9 call 377.5 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 150x; extreme turnover, low IV, OTM call selling likely. 13.6 call 372.5 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 117x; unusual call volume, possible hedging or speculative buying but bearish context suggests selling. 4.2 call 375 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 107x; low premium OTM calls, likely sold to collect premium.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below 347.83 → sell-off to 300

!Fail at 387.5 → mean reversion

!Post-op-ex IV crush

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-24 $380.00/$420.00 call spread Why now: Short gamma and dealer delta support upside; spread caps cost and risk.	Stock below long strike at expiry results in full loss; IV crush may reduce P&L.
Long call	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-24 $400.00 call Why now: Unusual put flow may be hedging; positive dealer gamma supports rallies.	Time decay and IV crush post-earnings; requires strong directional move.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-24 $345.00/$330.00 put spread Why now: Short gamma below support; selling puts collects premium with defined risk.	If stock breaches short strike, max loss quickly reached; post-earnings gap risk.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-24 $380.00/$420.00 call spread

Buy 380/420 call spread to profit from upside momentum into earnings with defined risk.

Why this play: Aligns with bullish bias from dealer gamma and short gamma squeeze potential, limiting risk vs naked long call.

Debit: $11.09-$13.56

Max loss: $13.56

BE: $393.56

Mgmt: Monitor dealer gamma; exit if TSLA breaks below 347.83 or near earnings IV crush.

Traders seeking bullish exposure with risk management.

Long Call

Buy 2026-07-24 $400.00 call

Buy 400 call to capture unlimited upside from bullish move into earnings.

Why this play: Higher upside potential but more exposed to IV crush and downside; outranked by spread on risk/reward.

Debit: $10.44-$12.76

Max loss: $12.76

BE: $412.76

Mgmt: Set stop at 347.83; adjust before earnings to avoid IV crush.

Aggressive traders comfortable with higher risk.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-24 $345.00/$330.00 put spread

Sell 345/330 put spread to profit from price staying above 345, collecting credit.

Why this play: Collects premium as bullish bet but contradicts stronger bullish bias; lower priority given thesis.

Credit: $2.84-$3.47

Max loss: $11.53

BE: $341.53

Mgmt: Close if TSLA approaches 345; risk of assignment if breached.

Income-focused traders expecting no major downside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFTSLA holds above 347.83 and breaks above 387.5 → Enter Bull Call Spread: Buy 2026-07-24 $380.00/$420.00 call spread

Exit Triggers

EXITTSLA closes below 347.83 → Exit all bullish positions, including Bull Call Spread

EXITWithin 3 days of earnings (2026-07-22), consider exiting to avoid IV crush → Close Bull Call Spread

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with support at 347.83. Dealer gamma supports upside. Prioritize Bull Call Spread (380/420) for limited risk. Exit if break below 347.83 or before earnings IV crush.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.