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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $375.12EOD only

Max Pain

$390.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.93

2.1% from close

Price Gap

+14.88

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.72

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 25, 2026 close

TSLA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

TSLA at $380 MP with strong gamma pinning (GEX +$134M). VIX 18.4, market down 0.7% but spot holds. Mixed flow & high vol cap upside. Neutral-bullish into expiry, range-bound.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5, +1 pinning, +1 spot MP, -1 mixed flow, +0.5 VIX.

Supports: GEX +$134M, spot MP, $371 support, $388 guardrail
Conflicts: Mixed flow, put OI $300 (21% below spot), VIX 18.4

📌Spot at MP, gamma pinning dominant

⚠️Mixed flow & high vol reject upside >$388

📉Macro down but TSLA resilient

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV, VIX 18.4 supports. Elevated due to expiry.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$134M positive, flip $300. Strong pinning $380.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium, no directional signal.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot exactly at $380 MP for 3 expiries.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Multiple MP pins at $380 with positive gamma create event-specific dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$371.01$388.41

Pinning to $380, range $371-$388, break needs volume.

Next 1 week

$364.98$394.43

Support $365, resistance $394, pin loosens post-expiry.

Next 2 weeks

$354.23$405.18

Gamma flip $300, macro drag toward $354 support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $380 (2026-06-26); $380 (2026-06-29); $380 (2026-07-01)

EM guardrails: 2d $371.01/$388.41; 1w $364.98/$394.43

Support: $354.23

Resistance: $380.00 · $400.00 · $405.18

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,525 (21.0% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $380 (6/26,6/29,7/1). EM 2d $371/$388, 1w $365/$394. Support $354, resist $400/$405. Flip $300.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+134.2M

DEX: +110.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,525 (21.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$134M pinning $380. DEX +110M shares long. Flip $300 (put OI 21k).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX, rich for short vol.

Term structure: Steep front, flat back; event-driven.

Skew: Call-skew likely; no actionable opportunity.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net negative ~$218M, bearish; P/C vol ~1, OI ratio 0.71 puts dominant.

Directional prints: 31.5 put 385 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 35.5x high put volume; likely bought for downside (bearish) or sold in spreads. Prefer bearish buy. 30.9 put 382.5 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 51.3x aggressive put buying; bearish bet or hedge. Prefer bearish. 70.3 put 400 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 37.6x high IV ITM put; likely protective purchase (bearish) or early exercise. Prefer bearish.

Unusual: 209.4 put 140 OTM 2026-07-02 — Extremely OTM put vol/OI 69.7x, IV 209%; tail hedge or lottery. Unusual deep OTM volume. 8.9 put 377.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 64.4x but IV 8.9%, unusually low IV; possible put selling (bullish) or data issue. Cautious read. 16.4 call 387.5 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 38.7x but last 0.01, OTM call; likely cheap buy (bullish) or spread. Unusual volume on worthless contract.

Risks & Catalysts

!Macro selloff

!Gamma flip below $300

!Flow turns bearish

!Catalyst event

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-24 $350.00/$320.00 put wing and $420.00/$460.00 call wing Why now: High IV and gamma pinning near $380; range expected; defined risk limits tail.	Directional break beyond wings or IV expansion post-earnings.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-24 $360.00/$335.00 put spread Why now: Support at $370; high put premiums; gamma pinning near $380 limits downside.	Macro selloff below $370 breaks support.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-24 $395.00/$430.00 call spread Why now: Spot holding $380; low probability of large downside; cheap upside via call spread.	IV crush if no movement; time decay if flat.

Top Plays

Iron Condor on TSLA

Sell 2026-07-24 $350.00/$320.00 put wing and $420.00/$460.00 call wing

Sell 2026-07-24 $350/$320 put wing and $420/$460 call wing, capturing time decay and expected range.

Why this play: Best for neutral range-bound outlook; high IV and gamma pinning near $380 provide premium income with defined risk.

Credit: $8.40-$10.27

Max loss: $29.73

BE: 339.73 / 430.27

Mgmt: Consider closing if spot breaches $345 or $415 to avoid tail risk.

Traders expecting TSLA to stay between $350-$420 by expiry.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-24 $360.00/$335.00 put spread

Sell 2026-07-24 $360/$335 put spread, collecting credit while defending downside.

Why this play: Supports upside bias with limited risk; high put premiums due to bearish flow, but gamma pinning near $380 supports.

Credit: $5.49-$6.71

Max loss: $18.29

BE: $353.29

Mgmt: Exit if spot drops below $354 invalidation level.

Traders with slightly bullish view but wanting defined risk.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-24 $395.00/$430.00 call spread

Buy 2026-07-24 $395/$430 call spread, risking defined debit for potential rally.

Why this play: Cheap upside exposure if spot rises; low probability of large downside, but thesis leans neutral so least preferred.

Debit: $7.60-$9.29

Max loss: $9.29

BE: $404.29

Mgmt: Close if spot fails to hold $380.

Aggressive traders betting on upward breakout.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot stays above $354 and below $405 → Sell 2026-07-24 $350/$320 put wing and $420/$460 call wing

IFIF spot holds above $360 → Sell 2026-07-24 $360/$335 put spread

IFIF spot breaks above $380 → Buy 2026-07-24 $395/$430 call spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot falls below $354 or rises above $405 → Close iron condor

EXITIF spot drops below $354 → Close put credit spread

EXITIF spot fails to hold $380 → Close bull call spread

Tactical Summary

Neutral-bullish range-bound into expiry. Iron condor preferred for time decay; put credit spread for bullish lean; bull call spread aggressive. Key support $354, resistance $405. Enter on range confirmation, exit on level breach.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.