thetaOwl
HomeOptionsTSLAReports

TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $411.15EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry Jun 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.22
3.0% from close
Price Gap
-11.15
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
79
High premium
P/C OI
0.72
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 15, 2026 close
TSLA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Moderately bullish bias pinned to $410 Jun17 expiry; high vol and positive gamma support mean reversion toward max pain, but mixed flow and below-MP spot introduce caution.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 5 +1 GEX (pinning) +0.5 spot near MP +1 VIX16 -1 GEX/flow contradict
Supports: Positive dealer gamma, spot near max pain, VIX moderate
Conflicts: High vol, mixed flow, below-MP spot
📌Spot below $410 MP; gamma pinning likely into Jun17 expiry.
⚡High vol (+VIX 16) warrants premium-selling caution.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV elevated vs typical; VIX 16 contributes to high vol characterization.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
+$103.4M GEX supports pinning; flip at ~$300 (far downside) not imminent.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed net premium; put/call flow not clearly directional.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot below $410 max pain; mean-reversion pull toward pin expected.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Gamma pinning and max pain concentrate near weekly expiry; high vol regime event-driven.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$396.01$413.31
Range $396-$413; pinning to max pain.
Next 1 week
$389.16$420.16
Expiry week; gamma effects dominate.
Next 2 weeks
$380.64$428.69
Post-expiry broader range $380-$428; no clear catalyst.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $410 (2026-06-17); $375 (2026-06-18); $402 (2026-06-22)
EM guardrails: 2d $396.01/$413.31; 1w $389.16/$420.16
Support: $380.64
Resistance: $410.00 · $420.00 · $428.69
Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,633 (25.9% below spot)
Structural: Support 380.64 (2w low); resistance 410 (max pain), 420, 428.69. Guardrails: 2d $396/$413, 1w $389/$420.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+103.4M

DEX: +121.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,633 (25.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: +$103.4M GEX bullish; flip ~$300 (far downside, low risk). DEX +121.3M shares net long.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 16; elevated vol suggests premium pricing but not extreme.

Term structure: Likely backwardated near expiry; event kink at Jun17.

Skew: Put skew elevated due to below-MP spot; consider call spreads for pin play.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put premium of $91.1M from directional and unusual prints with put/call volume ratio 1.23, bearish flow bias.

Directional prints: 36.2 put 405 ITM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 39.0; large premium $38.6M. Likely bought (bearish) or sold (bullish). Preferred: bought puts. 36.5 put 400 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 48.3; volume 105k, premium $25M. Two-sided: bought puts (bearish) or sold puts (bullish). Preferred: bought puts given net put flow. 37 call 405 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 69.1; volume 65.5k, premium $27.5M. Could be bought (bullish) or sold (bearish). Preferred: sold calls as hedge or bearish.

Unusual: 36.5 put 402.5 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 79.1, extremely high; small OI 565, suggests new aggressive put buying. Preferred: bought puts. 36.9 call 407.5 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 61.3, high; volume 48k vs OI 786. Likely new call buying or selling. Preferred: sold calls. 39.3 put 417.5 ITM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 54.3; OTM put with high IV. Aggressive put buying or selling. Preferred: bought puts.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot breaks below $380.64 support
!Expiry-driven gamma collapse after Jun17
!Macro selloff (QQQ -1.9%) exacerbates downside

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-10 $410.00/$435.00 call spread
Why now: Thesis targets 410 near-term; bull call spread limits cost and risk.
Full loss if spot below long strike at expiry.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-10 $380.00/$365.00 put spread
Why now: Net put premium and put skew support selling puts; spreads limit risk.
Max loss if spot below short strike at expiry.
Call diagonalModerate
Sell 2026-07-10 $435.00 call / buy 2026-07-24 $410.00 call
Why now: High IV in near-term allows selling to fund long back-month call.
Strike and time mismatch if spot moves beyond long strike.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-10 $410.00/$435.00 call spread
Buy $410 call, sell $435 call for net debit; profits if TSLA rallies.
Why this play: Directly targets $410 with limited risk, aligns with bullish thesis.
Debit: $7.31-$8.94
Max loss: $8.94
BE: $418.94
Mgmt: Close if spot below $380.64; take profit near $420-430.
Bullish traders with moderate risk appetite.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $380.00/$365.00 put spread
Sell $380 put, buy $365 put for credit; max profit above $380.
Why this play: Leverages put skew and net put premium, bullish but defined risk.
Credit: $2.86-$3.49
Max loss: $11.51
BE: $376.51
Mgmt: Monitor IV; close at 50% max profit or if spot nears $380.
Traders expecting TSLA to hold support above $380.
#3
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-10 $435.00 call / buy 2026-07-24 $410.00 call
Sell $435 call near-term, buy $410 call later; net credit/debit.
Why this play: Uses near-term IV to fund long-dated call, reducing cost.
Debit: $13.46-$16.45
Max loss: $16.45
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Roll short leg if ITM; close if trend reverses.
Traders wanting leveraged upside with lower upfront cost.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFTSLA holds above 380.64 and rallies toward 410 → Enter 2026-07-10 $410/$435 call spread near 8.14
IFTSLA stays above 380.64 with low downside volatility → Sell 2026-07-10 $380/$365 put spread near 3.18
IFTSLA above 380.64 and IV elevated → Enter call diagonal: sell 2026-07-10 $435 call, buy 2026-07-24 $410 call
Exit Triggers
EXITTSLA breaks below 380.64 → Close all positions to limit loss

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias to $410 resistance; support at 380.64. Prefer bull call spread for direct exposure. Put credit spread if support holds. Call diagonal leverages IV. Exit all if 380.64 breaks.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.