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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $435.79EOD only

Max Pain

$435.00

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.82

2.0% from close

Price Gap

-0.79

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.74

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

TSLA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term upside tilt toward the $370 area driven by strong pinning at near-term strikes and heavy bullish flow; Confidence: 8.0/10 base. Top supporting signals: GEX +$137.8M concentrated at $365/$360/$367.5/$370 (pin magnets), Net premium +$303.0M and call-heavy premium at $350-$365, and spot sitting above multiple near-term max-pain pins ($350/$355) which creates asymmetric upside squeeze; conflicts: elevated ATM IV (avg IV 59%) vs VIX 18.36 which raises tail cost and structural call OI at $400-$500 that caps extended rallies.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 8.0/10 per pre-computed: +GEX/flow alignment, pin concentration and net premium; no imminent catalyst omitted that would change score.

Supports: GEX concentration at $365 (+$23.6M), put OI floor $300 (18,526 puts), max-pain ladder rising toward $365 over month
Conflicts: ATM IV elevated (59.0%) and VIX 18.36 — costly to buy vol; structural call OI wall $400-$500 limiting catch-up rallies

📌Pinning concentrated at $365/$360/$367.5/$370 — near-term delta of price action is dealer-hedge driven

💰Net premium +$303.0M with call dominance at 350–365 implies institutional bullish exposure that supports grind-up toward EM cap

⚠️IV term kink: very low 1d/3d IV (30–38%) then spikes to 52.4% at 10d — short-dated calendar/vol plays have structural edge

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Vol: High — ATM avg IV 59.0% is rich vs VIX 18.36 but front-week IVs are compressed (1d 30.5%, 3d 38.2%) then spike into 10d+ where sellers can capture elevated term vol.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma: Pinning — GEX +$137.8M with concentrated positive gamma at $365/+0.2% and surrounding strikes; dealers will buy on dips and sell into rallies near the pins, encouraging mean-reversion into pin levels.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Flow: Bullish — Net premium +$303.0M and heavy call premium centered at $350-$365 (e.g., $360 call $128M) — institutional buying supports upside pressure and skews short-dated liquidity to calls.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above MP — spot $364.20 sits above nearby max pain ($350/$355) creating upward torque; rising MP trend (to $390 longer-dated) suggests dealers positioning for higher forward price.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and positive GEX persist across the next several expirations (concentrations at 4/15–4/24 and MP trend rising to $365 by 5/01); favorable to 30–45 DTE structures with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$357.67$370.74

Dealer pin at $365/$367.5/$370 plus concentrated call premium pushes toward upper EM; failure below $357.67 would flip dealers to hedge buys and accelerate downside.

Next 1 week

$349.53$378.88

Max pain at $350/$355 exerts gravitational pull; a sustained move above $378.88 requires exhaustion of call OI at $400–500 or fresh net call buying.

Next 2 weeks

$332.90$395.50

Rising MP and institutional net premium support grind higher; breakout above $395.50 would confront heavy call OI and require meaningful new flow.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $350 (2026-04-15); $355 (2026-04-17); $350 (2026-04-20)

EM guardrails: 2d $357.67/$370.74; 1w $349.53/$378.88

Support: $360.00 · $357.50 · $350.00

Resistance: $370.00 · $375.00 · $380.00

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 18,526 (17.6% below spot)

Structural: Structural call-OI wall from $400–$500 caps sustained rallies; deep put floor $200–$300 is long-term support and sets the gamma flip near ~$300 for aggressive hedges.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+137.8M

DEX: +124.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 18,526 (17.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term gamma concentrated at $365 (+$23.6M), $360 (+$14.7M), $367.5 (+$14.3M) — dealers will buy on dips toward these levels and sell into rallies near the pins; if spot falls ~2% (~$357) dealers step up delta buys (support), if spot rises ~2% (~$371) dealers sell into strength but remain net long gamma so moves should decelerate near pins.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 59.0% is rich vs VIX 18.36; front-week IV depressed (1d 30.5%, 3d 38.2%) then term jumps (10d 52.4%), signaling cheapness in very short-dated and richness in 2–6 week:**sell longer-dated vol, buy front-week vol**

Term structure: Bullish-humped: 1–3d low, 10–45d elevated (52.4% at 10d; ~45% at 30–45d) — opportunity to sell 30–45d ATM vol and harvest theta while buying compressed weeklies.

Skew: Call-heavy skew at 350–365 with heavy premium; mispriced opportunity: sell 31–45d ATM vol vs buy 1–7d (reverse calendar) where longer-dated IV ~48.8% > front-week ~38.2% (approx +10.6 vol-pt edge).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $303.0M skewed to calls; P/C vol 0.67, P/C OI 0.69 — flow strongly call-biased

Directional prints: 30.6 put 362.5 OTM 2026-04-15 — Large prints at 362.50P (Vol 58,315 / OI 459) — could be buyer of protection or synthetic short; consistent with dealers' short-delta hedging but overall flow is bullish so trades more likely buys of short-dated protection (risk-off hedge). 30.4 call 367.5 OTM 2026-04-15 — Heavy call prints at 367.50C (Vol 55,597 / OI 2,004) — likely outright call buying or bullish spreads; aligns with net call premium concentrated at 350–365.

Unusual: 30.6 put 362.5 OTM 2026-04-15 — Extremely elevated print ratio (127x) at 362.5P — large short-dated protection purchases which increase front-week gamma but likely to roll or be hedged by dealers.

Risks & Catalysts

!Pin release at 4/15–4/17 expiries — front-week option settlement can snap price toward $350–$355 (max pain) intraday

!Gamma flip sitting near ~$300: a >15% gap-down would flip dealer behavior and accelerate selling

!Elevated multi-week IV (45% at 30–45d) means short-premium sells carry gap risk and expensive hedges on news

!Macro risk: broad-market reversal (VIX jump >25) would blow short premium and force quick re-hedges

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy TSLA shares at market (spot $364.20)	Exposed to IV reprices and front-week pin release to $350–$355
Short stock	Weak	Avoid outright short while GEX positive and institutional call flow is supportive	Dealer pinning and positive GEX create dip buyers that punish naked short
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-01 375 call	Call OI wall and short-cover rallies; upside capped at 375
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 350/345 put spread	Pin release to $350 may stress spreads; gamma flip <$300 not immediate
Long calls (directional)	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-24 375 call	High ATM IV and front-week pinning compress rapid upside; expensive premium
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-24 350 put or buy 350/345 bear put spread	Costs elevated; contra to bullish flow and GEX pinning
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 355/350 put x 375/380 call iron condor	VIX gap or expiry pin release can blow wings — manage size aggressively
Calendar / Regular diagonal	Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 365 call, buy 2026-04-17 365 call (reverse calendar) — sell higher-IV longer-dated leg (17d IV 48.8%), buy lower-IV front-week (3d IV 38.2%)	Short longer-dated leg can be assigned vega and gap risk if front-week IV re-rates; requires active management
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2027-01-15 360 LEAPS call and sell 2026-05-01 370 call (diagonal)	Long-dated vega exposure; requires margin and willingness to carry if IV re-rates

Top Plays

Sell 350/345 put spread 2026-04-24

Sell 2026-04-24 350/345 put spread

Defined-risk put spread sits at nearby max pain ($350) and benefits from positive GEX and dealer buying on dips; short-dated IV elevated but spread collects meaningful credit.

Credit: $0.90-$1.40

Max loss: $4.10

BE: $349.10

Mgmt: Take 50–75% profit at 40–60% of max credit; cut if spot <$345 or VIX >25

Traders wanting defined-risk premium collection aligned with pinning

Reverse calendar on 365 calls (sell May, buy Apr)

Sell 2026-05-01 365 call, buy 2026-04-17 365 call (reverse calendar)

Sells higher-IV 17d/May leg (~48.8%) and buys compressed 3d/front-week IV (~38.2%), collecting premium while keeping short-term optionality and exploiting the vol-term kink.

Credit: $0.80-$1.80

Max loss: $1000.00

BE: Position dependent on fills; monitor short-leg carry

Mgmt: Buy back the short 5/01 leg or hedge if spot moves >1.5% from 365 or if front-week IV spikes; take profits at 50% of credit

Traders seeking vol-arb credit with active management

Sell 355/350 put x 375/380 iron condor 2026-04-24

Sell 2026-04-24 355/350 put x 375/380 call iron condor

Leverages pin at 355–350 and elevated multi-week IV to collect premium both sides; GEX positive supports range-bound outcome into expiry.

Credit: $1.20-$2.50

Max loss: $4.80

BE: Lower breakeven ~353.0 / upper ~377.5 (depends on premium)

Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit or if spot <350 or >380; reduce size into pin-release days.

Account-level income traders comfortable with defined wings

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot trades and holds $360.00 for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-24 350/345 put spread

IFIf spot consolidates at $365.00 for 60 minutes with front-week put buying easing → Sell 2026-05-01 365 call, buy 2026-04-17 365 call (reverse calendar)

IFIf spot rallies to $372.50 and call flow increases (new net call premium >$50M at 370+) → Sell 2026-04-24 375/380 call wing of iron condor (establish full 355/350x375/380 IC)

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot drops below $350.00 → Roll down put wings (buy back short puts, re-sell 345/340 or cut position)

ADJIf VIX spikes above 25 and spot <$355 → Close short premium positions (put spreads/IC) and switch to buying protection (long 350 puts) or reduce size

Exit Triggers

EXITIf one of top plays reaches 50–75% of max profit → Take profits on that position (close or 1/2) per management rules

EXITIf front-week expiry (4/15–4/17) resolves away from 365 and dealers’ net GEX concentration moves >10% from current levels → Reassess calendars and roll short legs to align with new pin (sell new front-week at the new pin)

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week bullish/range market driven by positive GEX and sustained call-heavy institutional flow; invalidation: sustained break and close below $350 (near-term max pain) or a VIX spike >25 that blows short premium. Regime favors selling premium around higher-IV longer-dated legs and harvesting theta via reverse calendars and defined-risk put spreads; Top plays: 4/24 350/345 put spread (defined-risk), reverse calendar 365 (sell 5/01 buy 4/17) for vol edge, 4/24 355/350 x 375/380 iron condor (income for larger accounts).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.