Home Options TSLAReports

TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $400.62EOD only

Max Pain

$372.50

Next expiry Apr 20, 2026

Expected Move

±$9.58

2.4% from close

Price Gap

-28.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.72

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 17, 2026 close

TSLA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 10, 2026. A newer directional report is available for April 17, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with upside magnet to $355 (near-term max pain) and a trending bias because dealer GEX is negative (gamma trending) while DEX shows heavy share exposure; Confidence: 7.5/10.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 7.5: +2 from aligned GEX/flow, +0.5 from spot 1.7% below MP; no single imminent catalyst to override.

Supports: 1) Near-term MP pins at $350/$355 concentrated GEX (+$1.8M/$1.1M). 2) EM bounds (2d $341.45–$356.45) compress price. 3) Put OI clusters at $340/$320 provide downside floors.
Conflicts: 1) Total GEX -$25.7M (dealer short gamma) favors trend moves away from pin. 2) Net premium -$84.4M (buying of premium) can fuel bigger moves. 3) Elevated avg IV 56.2% vs low front-week IV creates term-structure tension.

📌Max pain ladder rising (MP trend → $355→$400) — bias for higher strikes over multi-week horizon

⚠️GEX -$25.7M = dealer short-gamma; small moves can accelerate — prefer directional or bought-vol structures

📈Large retail/institutional call premium at $340/$335/$330 (top premium flows) concentrated bullish flow into near-ATM strikes

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High overall IV (avg 56.2%) with cheap front 3d ATM (29.9%) and a 14d spike (51.5%) — implies event/term skew and expensive tails beyond 2 weeks.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Gamma: Trending with total GEX -$25.7M; NTM small positive GEX pockets at $350/$355 but net dealer short-gamma behaviour dominates — favors directional acceleration and spot chasing.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow: Mixed — net premium negative $-84.4M (buying vol), P/C vol 0.76 and P/C OI 0.69; heavy call premium at $340/$335 suggests bullish positioning concentrated near spot.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $348.95 is below near-term MP levels ($350–$355) which creates a mild upside magnet; MP trend is rising across expirations, signaling dealer incentives to push higher strikes over time.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — MP trend rising across multiple expirations and persistent negative GEX + continued call-heavy net premium indicate regime likely to persist 2–4 weeks (recommend 30–45 DTE for primary trades; weeklies for tactical overlays).

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$341.45$356.45

Break above $356.45 (2d EM) would shift short-term tempo toward $360+; failure back below $341.45 opens 2% pullback risk.

Next 1 week

$336.73$361.18

Sustained buy premium and MP pins at $350/$355 support reversion to the $350–$360 band; decisive close below $336.73 invalidates the pin.

Next 2 weeks

$320.83$377.08

Rising MP and persistent net bought premium can push toward the upper 2-week EM $377.08; a move below $320.83 would signal regime failure and reversion to low-end structural layers.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $355 (2026-04-10); $350 (2026-04-13); $355 (2026-04-15)

EM guardrails: 2d $341.45/$356.45; 1w $336.73/$361.18

Support: $340.00 · $320.00 · $300.00

Resistance: $355.00 · $360.00 · $375.00

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,083 (14.0% below spot)

Structural: Structural call OI wall at $400–$500 caps long-term upside; put floor $200–$300 provides deep protection; gamma flip ~ $300 is major regime inflection for multi-month positioning.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-25.7M

DEX: +117.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 19,083 (14.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM: concentrated positive GEX at $350 (+$1.8M) and $355 (+$1.1M) creates short-lived pinning around those strikes, but aggregate GEX -$25.7M means dealers are net short gamma—if spot rallies +2% (~$355) dealers will sell less/delta-hedge by buying stock (dampening rally short-term due to DEX), if spot falls -2% (~$342) dealers will sell stock to hedge and accelerate downside; asymmetry favors momentum continuation away from pins once broken.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 56.2% is elevated versus front-week IV (3d ATM 29.9%); long-dated vols are rich relative to immediate-term suggesting curve pricing of tails.

Term structure: Front-week IV depressed (29.9–39.7), sharp jump at 14d (51.5%) then gradual roll to mid-40s — clear mid-term event/tail premium anchored 2–4 weeks out (earnings 4/21–22 contributes).

Skew: 14d vs 7d ATM: 51.5% vs 39.7% (~11.8 vol-pt kink) — calendar/diagonal where you SELL the higher-IV leg (sell 14d, buy 7d) or sell shorter-dated puts against longer-dated protection is a mispriced-vol pick.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$84.4M (net buyers of premium), concentrated call buying at $340/$335/$330 and massive put buying at very OTM strikes (e.g., $500 net negative) indicating two-way positioning.

Directional prints: 31.2 call 345 ITM 2026-04-13 — Large 4/13 $345C flow (Vol 27,685; OI 1,470) — could be bought calls or delta-hedging; consistent with short-dated bullish rotation. 30.1 put 350 ITM 2026-04-13 — 4/13 $350P flow (Vol 27,390; OI 2,212) — heavy put trading at the pin; could be dealers buying protection or clients selling puts; aligned with pin activity. 137.5 call 680 OTM 2026-04-17 — Outlier: 4/17 $680C huge vol spike (101,975) likely low-prem lottery buys — ignore for directional gamma.

Unusual: 31.2 call 345 ITM 2026-04-13 — 4/13 $345C: 27,685 vol vs OI 1,470 (18.8x) — near-ATM bullish flow ahead of pin. 30.1 put 350 ITM 2026-04-13 — 4/13 $350P: 27,390 vol vs OI 2,212 (12.4x) — concentrated activity around MP.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings 2026-04-21–22 can reprice IV and flip short-term bias.

!Dealer short gamma (-$25.7M) can accelerate moves and blow through EM bounds if momentum aligns with net premium buying.

!Gamma flip at ~$300 is structural – a slide toward $300 would turn dealers long-gamma and compress moves (big regime shift).

!MP trend rising: failure to reclaim $355/$360 within 1–2 weeks increases tail risk to either side as positions roll.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate	Buy TSLA shares at market	Dealer short-gamma can whip price; capital at risk if gap down at earnings.
Short stock	Weak	Short TSLA shares	Negative edge vs rising MP and concentrated call flow; high margin and gamma risk.
Covered call	Moderate-Weak	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-15 375C	Caps upside into rising MP; IV term premium favors selling mid-term calls.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 340P cash-secured or sell 340/320 put spread 2026-04-24	If downside accelerates past $320 (EM 2-week low $320.83) losses mount; dealer gamma can exacerbate move.
Long calls (directional)	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-15 365C (30–45 DTE)	Premium decay and IV contraction if move stalls; expensive entry if IV rises further.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-24 320/300 put spread	Costs high due to elevated mid-term IV; requires substantial downside to pay off.
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-04-24 350/340P x 365/375C iron condor	Dealer short-gamma and earnings can blow wings; front-week IV low reduces immediate premium collected.
Calendar/Diagonal (sell high-IV leg)	Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 ATM 340 (higher IV 51.5%), buy 2026-04-17 340 (lower IV ~39.7) — sell the higher-IV longer-dated leg	Requires stability through near-leg; time/IV differential must persist.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2027-01-15 300C LEAP, sell 2026-05-15 365C (diagonal)	Roll risk and carry; requires patience and capital; benefits from selling mid-term elevated IV.

Top Plays

Sell 340/320 put spread 2026-04-24

Defined-risk premium collection beneath EM guardrail with support at $340 and put OI cluster; benefits from dealer short-gamma and rising MP while limiting tail risk.

Credit: $3.00-$5.00

Max loss: $17.00

BE: $337.00

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot < $330 or VIX spikes > +8 pts.

Defined-risk premium collectors comfortable owning stock at $320

Buy 365C 2026-05-15 (directional)

Buy 365 call 2026-05-15

Directional play that uses rising MP and net call demand; 35 DTE gives time for trend continuation and avoids short-dated pin churn.

Debit: $7.00-$12.00

Max loss: $12.00

BE: $377.00

Mgmt: Sell half at 30–50% gain; cut if price closes below $340 on weekly basis or IV collapses.

Traders wanting asymmetric upside with defined debit risk

Calendar: sell 2026-04-24 340 (high-IV) / buy 2026-04-17 340 (low-IV)

Sell 340 2026-04-24, buy 340 2026-04-17 (calendar on 340)

Exploits 14d IV spike (51.5%) vs 7d (39.7%): sell the higher-IV longer-dated leg per calendar rule to capture term premium decay.

Credit: $1.50-$3.50

Max loss: $99999.00

BE: manage by roll

Mgmt: Close/roll if underlying moves >3.5% from 340 or IV differential narrows by >6 vol-pts.

Vol-arbitrage traders comfortable managing theta and directional exposure

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $350 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 340/320 put spread 2026-04-24

IFIf spot closes above $360 on daily basis → Buy 365C 2026-05-15

IFIf 14d ATM IV (2026-04-24) >7 vol-pts above 7d IV (2026-04-17) → Establish calendar: sell 340 2026-04-24 / buy 340 2026-04-17

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot falls below $336.73 (1-week EM low) → Reduce short put exposure and shift to 320/300 protective put spreads 2026-04-24

ADJIf net premium flow flips to net sellers (net premium > +$50M) → Tighten short-premium wings by 5–10 points or roll out 14–21 days

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX-equivalent or implied ATM IV jumps +10 vol-pts intraday → Exit short premium positions immediately (close spreads) and hedge with long calls

EXITIf spot closes below $320.83 (2-week EM low) → Close bullish directional positions and purchase 320/300 put spread 2026-04-24

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: short-term pin to $350–$355 with trending upside risk due to dealer short-gamma and continued call buying; invalidate bullish run if price closes below $336.73 (1-week EM low) or $320.83 (2-week EM low). Regime favors directional buys (long calls, LEAP diagonals) and selective defined-risk put selling/credit spreads; calendar/diagonal on 340 exploits a large IV kink and is the cleanest vol-arbitrage.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.