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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $418.45EOD only

Max Pain

$420.00

Next expiry Jun 5, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.18

1.9% from close

Price Gap

+1.55

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.73

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 4, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 4, 2026 close

TSLA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 5, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Slight bearish bias: negative gamma and spot below MP, but support at $379 and long delta limit downside. Range-bound with downside bias.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5 plus GEX/flow alignment (+2), spot vs MP (-1), VIX (0.5) =6.5. No override.

Supports: Dealer long delta, support at $359.82, VIX moderate.
Conflicts: Negative gamma, spot below MP, high vol, mixed flow.

🛡️Max Pain $420 (6/5) resistance

📉Negative gamma amplifies downside break of $379

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High due to recent moves and event.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending negative gamma.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed premium flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

6.9% below MP $420.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Expiration over next week.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$379.40$402.60

2d range 379-403; bias lower.

Next 1 week

$372.85$409.15

Expiry pin near MP $422.

Next 2 weeks

$359.82$422.18

Downside to $359.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $420 (2026-06-05); $422 (2026-06-08); $425 (2026-06-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $379.40/$402.60; 1w $372.85/$409.15

Support: $359.82

Resistance: $400.00 · $420.00 · $422.18

Gamma flip: ~$300.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,891 (23.3% below spot)

Structural: Max Pain $420/$422/$425. EM guardrails 379.4/402.6 (2d), 372.85/409.15 (1w). Support $359.82. Gamma flip ~$300.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-21.8M

DEX: +127.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$300 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 22,891 (23.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$21.8M (neg gamma), DEX +127.2M (long delta). Gamma flip ~$300.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX 21.5 from event risk.

Term structure: Near-term inverted from expiry.

Skew: Put skew high; consider put spread at support.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$1.4B; P/C vol 0.78 indicates bearish call selling.

Directional prints: 196.9 put 150 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol 29.6k vs OI 194; OTM put likely bought as hedge (bearish). 26.6 call 405 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol 112k vs OI 649; sold (bearish) per net premium; caps upside. 10 call 395 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol 84.9k vs OI 1k; sold (bearish) capping.

Unusual: 15 call 397.5 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol 86k vs OI 271; vol/OI 317x extreme; probably sold. 37.4 call 410 OTM 2026-06-08 — Vol 25.6k vs OI 200; 128x vol/OI; new positions possible. 30.5 call 407.5 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol 63k vs OI 619; large 0DTE sold per net premium.

Risks & Catalysts

!Negative gamma can accelerate moves.

!Spot may rally to MP.

!Break of $379 leads to $360.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-08-21 $395.00/$360.00 put spread Why now: Slight bearish bias and negative gamma support. Use 2026-08-21 expiration to capture post-earnings move.	Upside risk if spot rallies above short strike; max loss limited to debit paid.
Long put	Conditional	Buy 2026-08-21 $380.00 put Why now: Negative gamma and flow indicate bearish pressure; outright put captures convexity if break occurs.	Time decay if stock stays range-bound; requires directional move to profit.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-08-21 $395.00/$360.00 put spread

Buy $395/$360 put spread expiring 2026-08-21, profits if TSLA drops below $395.

Why this play: Best for slight bearish bias with defined risk, captures post-earnings move with support at $379.

Debit: $14.22-$17.38

Max loss: $17.38

BE: $377.62

Mgmt: Set stop at $400; take profit at target or exit at earnings.

Traders expecting a moderate decline to $360, with defined risk.

Long Put

Buy 2026-08-21 $380.00 put

Buy $380 put expiring 2026-08-21, profits if TSLA falls significantly.

Why this play: More convex but higher cost; suitable if bearish conviction is stronger.

Debit: $25.70-$31.41

Max loss: $31.41

BE: $348.59

Mgmt: Set stop at $400; consider rolling if spot rallies above $400.

Traders seeking high convexity and willing to risk higher premium.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFTSLA breaks below $379 (2d guardrail) → Buy 2026-08-21 $395/$360 put spread at debit 14.22–17.38

IFTSLA drops below $380 with bearish momentum → Buy 2026-08-21 $380 put at premium 25.70–31.41

Exit Triggers

EXITTSLA closes above $400 → Close both positions

EXITTSLA reaches $360 or earnings date (2026-07-22) arrives → Take profit on bear put spread; exit long put if no target

Tactical Summary

Slight bearish bias ahead of earnings; key support $379, resistance $400. Negative gamma may accelerate moves. Prefer bear put spread for defined risk; long put for convexity. Manage stops at $400.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 5, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.