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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $417.85EOD only
Max Pain
$410.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.23
2.0% from close
Price Gap
-7.85
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
42
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 21, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/22 (TBD). IV elevated (59.1% avg), term structure shows steep kink at 4/24 (49.7% vs 40.8% pre), supporting crush and calendar spread plays. Historical moves are mixed with a slight upside bias. Key risk: spot below max pain, negative GEX amplifies moves.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 4.6% from MP
Most important: Negative GEX (-$63.1M) and spot below max pain ($370) create trending risk; IV differential (8.9 vol pts) offers calendar spread opportunity.
📅Earnings expected 4/22 (TBD), 16 days out
⚠️Negative GEX (-$63.1M) and spot below max pain increase trending risk
📊IV differential 8.9 vol pts (4/24 49.7% vs 4/13 40.8%) supports short calendar strategies

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 59.1%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX -$63.1M)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem -$331.4M, P/C 0.84)
Spot vs MP
Below (spot $352.82 vs MP $370)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-22 (16 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 4/24 (18d): ±$31.10 (8.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/24 (49.7% vs 40.8% pre-earnings on 4/13), elevated near-term IV (48.5% 2d)

Crush estimate: ~9 vol pts, back to ~40%

Skew: Puts slightly richer than calls (P/C vol 0.84, OI 0.68)

Historical Context

Beat rate: 50% (2/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for move vs EM; last quarter beat EPS by $0.05

Directional bias: 2/4 gap up post-earnings, last quarter positive surprise

Key Levels

1$372.50 (pin magnet, +5.6% from spot)
2$385.00 (call OI wall, +9.1% from spot)
3$330.00 (put OI cluster, -6% from spot)
4$360.00 (mixed OI, +2% from spot)

Flow Highlights

Heavy $350C 4/08 buying ($101.6M premium, OI 72 vs vol 3,979)

Near-term upside bets, possibly earnings positioning

Large $380P 4/08 net premium -$43.7M (put $58.2M vs call $14.5M)

Significant put hedging or bearish flow near expected move upper bound

Strategies

Short calendar straddle
Sell $355 straddle 4/24 (IV 49.7%) x Buy $355 straddle 4/13 (IV 40.8%)
Max loss: Limited to net credit if IV spikes on 4/13 or move large
Max gain: Net credit if IV crushes on 4/24 > 4/13, stock pins near $355
BE: Complex; depends on vol changes and spot move
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings
Exploits 8.9 vol pt differential; sell elevated longer-dated IV (4/24) against lower near-term IV (4/13) for post-earnings crush
Outperforms: IV crush on 4/24 > 4/13, stock stays near $355 post-earnings
Underperforms: IV spikes on 4/13, stock moves beyond EM, both legs crush equally
Short strangle
Sell $330P x $385C 4/24
Credit: $8.00-$10.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $9.00
BE: 322.0/393.0
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings if IV >45%
Elevated IV (49.7% for 4/24) and historical mixed moves support premium selling; strikes set at EM guardrails
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds ($321.72-$383.92), IV crushes post-earnings
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >10%, negative GEX amplifies move
Long straddle
Buy $355 straddle 4/24
Max loss: $31.10
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 323.9/386.1
Trigger: Enter day before earnings if IV hasn't spiked >55%
Negative GEX (-$63.1M) and trending regime increase gap risk; last quarter beat supports upside surprise potential
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM (8.8%) by >20%, negative GEX drives volatility
Underperforms: Stock pins near max pain ($370), IV crushes post-earnings
Put spread
Buy $350P x Sell $330P 4/24
Max loss: $20.00
Max gain: $20.00
BE: $340.00
Trigger: Enter if spot breaks below $350 with weak guidance
Spot below max pain ($370) and put OI cluster at $330 provide downside support; P/C vol 0.84 indicates put demand
Outperforms: Stock drops to $330-$340 range, put skew supports
Underperforms: Stock rallies above $360, IV crush erodes value

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 8.8% EM but negative GEX (-$63.1M) could amplify moves beyond bounds
!IV crush likely post-earnings (~9 vol pts), hurting long premium strategies but benefiting short calendar
!Liquidity: high (5.3M OI, 1.7M volume), but watch for wide spreads on OTM strikes
!Sizing: reduce due to trending regime and elevated volatility; calendar spreads require precise timing

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into 4/24 expiration, especially differential vs 4/13
?Spot vs max pain ($370) for pinning
?Unusual activity in $350C and $380P
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.