Earnings Verdict
Earnings expected around 4/22 (TBD). IV elevated (59.1% avg), term structure shows steep kink at 4/24 (49.7% vs 40.8% pre), supporting crush and calendar spread plays. Historical moves are mixed with a slight upside bias. Key risk: spot below max pain, negative GEX amplifies moves.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 4.6% from MP
Most important: Negative GEX (-$63.1M) and spot below max pain ($370) create trending risk; IV differential (8.9 vol pts) offers calendar spread opportunity.
📅Earnings expected 4/22 (TBD), 16 days out
⚠️Negative GEX (-$63.1M) and spot below max pain increase trending risk
📊IV differential 8.9 vol pts (4/24 49.7% vs 4/13 40.8%) supports short calendar strategies
Regime Classification
Vol Regime
High (IV 59.1%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX -$63.1M)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem -$331.4M, P/C 0.84)
Spot vs MP
Below (spot $352.82 vs MP $370)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-04-22 (16 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 4/24 (18d): ±$31.10 (8.8%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/24 (49.7% vs 40.8% pre-earnings on 4/13), elevated near-term IV (48.5% 2d)
Crush estimate: ~9 vol pts, back to ~40%
Skew: Puts slightly richer than calls (P/C vol 0.84, OI 0.68)
Historical Context
Beat rate: 50% (2/4 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for move vs EM; last quarter beat EPS by $0.05
Directional bias: 2/4 gap up post-earnings, last quarter positive surprise
Key Levels
1$372.50 (pin magnet, +5.6% from spot)
2$385.00 (call OI wall, +9.1% from spot)
3$330.00 (put OI cluster, -6% from spot)
4$360.00 (mixed OI, +2% from spot)
Flow Highlights
Heavy $350C 4/08 buying ($101.6M premium, OI 72 vs vol 3,979)
Near-term upside bets, possibly earnings positioning
Large $380P 4/08 net premium -$43.7M (put $58.2M vs call $14.5M)
Significant put hedging or bearish flow near expected move upper bound
Strategies
Short calendar straddle
Sell $355 straddle 4/24 (IV 49.7%) x Buy $355 straddle 4/13 (IV 40.8%)
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings
Exploits 8.9 vol pt differential; sell elevated longer-dated IV (4/24) against lower near-term IV (4/13) for post-earnings crush
Outperforms: IV crush on 4/24 > 4/13, stock stays near $355 post-earnings
Underperforms: IV spikes on 4/13, stock moves beyond EM, both legs crush equally
Short strangle
Sell $330P x $385C 4/24
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings if IV >45%
Elevated IV (49.7% for 4/24) and historical mixed moves support premium selling; strikes set at EM guardrails
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds ($321.72-$383.92), IV crushes post-earnings
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >10%, negative GEX amplifies move
Long straddle
Buy $355 straddle 4/24
Trigger: Enter day before earnings if IV hasn't spiked >55%
Negative GEX (-$63.1M) and trending regime increase gap risk; last quarter beat supports upside surprise potential
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM (8.8%) by >20%, negative GEX drives volatility
Underperforms: Stock pins near max pain ($370), IV crushes post-earnings
Put spread
Buy $350P x Sell $330P 4/24
Trigger: Enter if spot breaks below $350 with weak guidance
Spot below max pain ($370) and put OI cluster at $330 provide downside support; P/C vol 0.84 indicates put demand
Outperforms: Stock drops to $330-$340 range, put skew supports
Underperforms: Stock rallies above $360, IV crush erodes value
Risk Assessment
!Gap risk: 8.8% EM but negative GEX (-$63.1M) could amplify moves beyond bounds
!IV crush likely post-earnings (~9 vol pts), hurting long premium strategies but benefiting short calendar
!Liquidity: high (5.3M OI, 1.7M volume), but watch for wide spreads on OTM strikes
!Sizing: reduce due to trending regime and elevated volatility; calendar spreads require precise timing
What to Watch
?IV trajectory into 4/24 expiration, especially differential vs 4/13
?Spot vs max pain ($370) for pinning
?Unusual activity in $350C and $380P