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TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $417.26EOD only
Max Pain
$410.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.60
3.0% from close
Price Gap
-7.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
40
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings inferred for ~4/10 based on IV kink. IV is elevated (40.2% ATM for 4/10), making IV crush plays attractive. However, negative GEX suggests trending volatility, increasing gap risk. Best strategy is a short strangle to capitalize on IV crush, with defined risk.

Confidence:
5 / 10
base 5; +1 clear IV kink at 4/10; +0.5 elevated IV; -1.5 earnings date inferred, not explicit; -0.5 negative GEX (trending regime)
Most important: IV term structure shows a sharp peak at 4/10 (40.2%) vs. 31.2% on 4/06, strongly inferring an earnings event that week.
⚠️Earnings date NOT explicit. Inferred for week of 4/10 based on IV kink. Confirm via company calendar.
📉Gamma regime shifted from Pinning to Trending (GEX -$49.7M). Dealers will amplify moves, not suppress them.
🔄Delta from prior report: Spot dropped from $371.75 to $360.59. GEX flipped from strongly positive to negative.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 55%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX $-49.7M — pro-cyclical)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-432.1M, P/C 0.71)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 6.3% (spot $360.59 vs MP $385)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-10 (8 days)inferred from IV kink

Expected moves:

  • 4/10 (8d): ±$17.03 (4.7%) [$343.56 - $377.61]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/10 (40.2%) vs 31.2% on 4/06 and 40.8% on 4/17. Elevated across curve.

Crush estimate: ~8-12 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~32% range.

Skew: P/C OI ratio 0.72 shows more call OI, but net premium heavily negative from put flow at strikes like $380.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 50% (2/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for precise move vs. expected, but recent quarters show mixed surprises.

Directional bias: 2/4 gap up post-earnings, 2/4 gap down.

Key Levels

1$360 (spot nearest)
2$385 (near-term max pain)
3$342.5 (EM lower bound approx)
4$377.5 (EM upper bound approx)
5$350 (major call OI & flow support)

Flow Highlights

Massive volume in 4/10 $650C (101k vol vs 940 OI, IV 112.5%).

Extreme OTM lottery ticket buying, not a meaningful directional signal.

Large net premium outflow at $380 strike (-$49.9M), driven by put buying.

Significant bearish hedging or positioning just above the expected move upper bound.

Strong net premium inflow at $355 (+$22.6M) and $350 (+$21.8M) calls.

Bullish flow building support near and below the current spot.

Strategies

Short Strangle (IV Crush)
Sell $342.5 Put x Sell $377.5 Call 4/10
Credit: $8.50-$10.50
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $9.50
BE: $333.00
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before inferred earnings date (4/07-4/08).
Elevated IV at the 4/10 expiration provides high premium. Strikes placed just outside the 4.7% expected move bounds. Negative GEX regime means pinning less likely, but IV crush is the primary edge.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $342.5-$377.5 and IV crushes post-earnings.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds strangle wings by >$5.
Iron Condor (Defined Risk)
Sell $345/$340P x Sell $380/$385C 4/10
Credit: $3.00-$4.00
Max loss: $2.00
Max gain: $3.50
BE: $342.00
Trigger: Enter 2 days before inferred earnings date.
Defined-risk alternative to the strangle. Collects premium on elevated IV while capping max loss. Wings are $5 outside the expected move bounds, providing a buffer given historical mixed moves.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $345-$380.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds the short strikes.
Put Ratio Spread (Bearish/Breakdown)
Buy 1x $355 Put, Sell 2x $345 Put 4/10
Credit: $1.50-$3.00
Max loss: $8.50
Max gain: $11.50
BE: $348.50
Trigger: Enter if spot shows weakness heading into earnings, below $360.
Capitalizes on negative GEX (trending) and bearish flow at higher strikes ($380P). Benefits from IV crush on the two short puts. Offers a credit and profits on a down move within a range.
Outperforms: Stock moves down moderately, ideally to ~$345 at expiration.
Underperforms: Stock rallies sharply or collapses far below $335.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 4.7% EM, but TSLA can gap 8-12% on earnings/guidance. Negative GEX amplifies moves.
!IV crush: Estimated 8-12 vol point drop. Primary edge for short premium strategies.
!Date risk: Earnings date is inferred from IV kink, not explicit. Could be 4/08 or 4/10.
!Liquidity: Excellent. High OI and volume across strikes.
!Sizing: Size short premium positions for max loss of 1-2% of portfolio given elevated gap risk.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into the week of 4/07 for confirmation of earnings timing.
?Spot vs. $350 level (major call support per flow).
?Any unusual activity in 4/08 expiration, which could indicate earnings is actually 4/08 AMC.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.