thetaOwl
HomeOptionsTSLAReports

TSLA

Tesla, Inc.Close $417.26EOD only
Max Pain
$410.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.60
3.0% from close
Price Gap
-7.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
40
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSLA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
TSLA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/02, confirmed by sharp IV kink. IV is elevated (44% ATM), making IV crush plays attractive. Historical data shows mixed moves, but strong gamma pinning suggests mean reversion.

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; +1 clear IV kink at 4/02; +0.5 strong gamma pinning; -0.5 limited historical data
Most important: IV term structure shows a sharp peak at 4/02 (44.1%) vs. 24.3% on 4/01, confirming earnings event.
📅Earnings inferred for 4/02 based on IV kink. Confirm via company calendar.
⚖️Spot ($371.75) is below near-term max pain ($385). Positive GEX suggests pinning pressure upward.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 56%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$47.6M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-859.5M, P/C 0.99)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 3.4% (spot $371.75 vs MP $385)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-02 (2 days)inferred from IV kink

Expected moves:

  • 4/02 (2d): ±$12.06 (3.2%) [$359.69 - $383.81]
  • 4/06 (6d): ±$15.85 (4.3%) [$355.90 - $387.60]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/02 (44.1% vs 24.3% on 4/01 and 37.3% on 4/06). Elevated IV across the curve.

Crush estimate: ~15-20 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~30% range.

Skew: Mixed flow with net premium negative, but P/C ratio near 1 suggests balanced positioning.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 50% (2/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for precise move vs. expected, but recent quarters show mixed surprises.

Directional bias: 2/4 gap up post-earnings, 2/4 gap down.

Key Levels

1$370 (spot near)
2$385 (max pain 3/23)
3$360 (EM lower bound approx)
4$382.5 (EM upper bound approx)
5$400 (call OI wall)

Flow Highlights

Massive volume in 4/01 $377.50P (117k vol vs 776 OI) and $380P (131k vol vs 1,356 OI) at very low IV (<10%).

Likely closing/selling of near-dated puts ahead of earnings, not new directional bets.

Large net premium outflow at $500 strike (-$618M), driven by put buying.

Potential long-dated hedge or bearish positioning far OTM.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (IV Crush)
Sell $360/$355P x $385/$390C 4/02
Credit: $1.50-$2.00
Max loss: $3.50
Max gain: $1.75
BE: $358.25
Trigger: Enter 1 day before earnings (4/01)
Elevated IV at 4/02 expiration provides premium to sell. Gamma pinning regime supports mean reversion. Strikes placed just outside EM bounds.
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds ($359.69-$383.81) and IV crushes.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >$5.
Long Straddle (Directional Volatility)
Buy $372.50 straddle 4/02
Max loss: Cost of straddle
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Breakevens = $372.50 ± cost
Trigger: Enter if IV hasn't spiked >50% day before earnings.
Historical mixed surprises and potential for large guidance-driven move. Use if expecting a binary outcome.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM (3.2%) by >50%.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $372.50 and IV crushes sharply.
Put Calendar Spread (Theta Decay + IV Crush)
Buy $365 put 4/06, Sell $365 put 4/02
Max loss: Net debit
Max gain: IV crush on short leg + theta decay.
BE: Stock below $365 by expiration, but not too far below.
Trigger: Enter 2 days before earnings.
Capitalizes on higher IV in front month (4/02) vs. back month (4/06). Benefits from IV crush on the short leg.
Outperforms: Stock stays near or slightly below $365, IV crushes on short-dated leg.
Underperforms: Large gap down below $355.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 3.2% EM, but TSLA can gap 5-10% on earnings. Watch guidance.
!IV crush: Estimated 15-20 vol point drop. Short premium strategies benefit.
!Liquidity: Excellent. High OI and volume across strikes.
!Sizing: Size condors/strangles for max loss of 1-2% of portfolio given gap risk.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into 4/01
?Spot vs. $385 max pain level
?Unusual activity in weekly expirations post-4/02
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.