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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $389.10EOD only
Max Pain
$385.00
Next expiry Jul 31, 2026
Expected Move
±$28.23
7.3% from close
Price Gap
-4.10
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
52
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.44
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 27, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 27, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 12, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short Put
Invalidation: Spot break below $371.64 or above $397.5
Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP; +1 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 43.9% vs VIX 17.7% => elevated premium
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Steep near-term; 0dte 5%, 3dte 22%, then ~30% flat.

📈IV 43.9% vs VIX 17.7% offers elevated premium.
📌Max pain pins $398-$402; spot below, pinning likely.
💼Dealer GEX +$18M supports pinning.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Pinning ($+18.0M)

OI concentrations: Call OI wall $420-$575; no put concentration below spot.

Verdict: Pinning likely toward $398-$402 max pain zone.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-24 $360.00 put + sell $435.00 call
Sell OTM put and call to collect rich premium from IV 43.9% vs VIX 17.7%.
Credit: $8.26-$10.09
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 349.91 / 445.09
Mgmt: Monitor support at $371.64 and resistance at $397.5; consider early close near max pain zone $398-$402.
#2
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-17 $415.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $400.00 call
Sell near-term call, buy later-dated call to profit from IV decay post-earnings.
Debit: $13.75-$16.80
Max loss: $16.80
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Set invalidation at $371.64; adjust or exit if stock breaks below support.

Risk Alerts

!Downside: break below $371.64 support.
!Upside: surge above $397.5 resistance.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.