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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $389.10EOD only
Max Pain
$385.00
Next expiry Jul 31, 2026
Expected Move
±$28.23
7.3% from close
Price Gap
-4.10
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
52
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.44
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 27, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 27, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 11, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short call spreads
Invalidation: Spot breaks above $420 or IV spikes above 50%
Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 4.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 44.7% vs VIX 19.4, 2.3x elevated
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end call IV extreme at 76% (1d), term structure flat with high call skew

⚠️Call IV 76% on 1d expiration indicates extreme upside demand
📉Dealer GEX -$7.1M (negative gamma); short call positioning

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-7.1M)

OI concentrations: Max pain pins $410, $408, $415; call OI wall $420-$575

Verdict: Spot 4.8% below MP; high call OI concentration above; pin risk if rallies

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $410.00/$415.00 call spread
Sell call spread above resistance, capturing premium decay with defined risk.
Credit: $1.24-$1.51
Max loss: $3.49
BE: $411.51
Mgmt: Monitor spot near $410; exit if IV spikes above 50% or spot breaches $420.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $370.00/$365.00 put wing and $410.00/$415.00 call wing
Sell both wings at key levels, profiting from IV contraction and time decay.
Credit: $2.30-$2.81
Max loss: $2.19
BE: 367.19 / 412.81
Mgmt: Adjust if spot moves near either wing; aim to close before earnings.
#3
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-08-21 $370.00/$365.00 put spread
Sell put spread below support, targeting IV contraction after earnings.
Credit: $1.96-$2.39
Max loss: $2.61
BE: $367.61
Mgmt: Enter after earnings if IV is elevated; set stop if spot approaches $369.

Risk Alerts

!Extreme call skew on 1d expiry
!Negative gamma dealer positioning
!Spot below max pain
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.