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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $403.41EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry Jun 10, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.86
1.4% from close
Price Gap
+11.59
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
57
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.45
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short Call Spread
Invalidation: Spot surges above $415 call OI wall or IV expands sharply
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +0.5 spot 1.9% from MP

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV 41.9% well above VIX 22.2% — elevated premium environment
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end elevated (2DTE 35.7%); mild contango to 30DTE 31.8%; call IV > put IV skew persists

📈IV Rank high at 41.9% avg, offering rich premiums vs historical vol
⚡Dealer gamma negative (-$28.4M) — hedging may amplify moves

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Trending ($-28.4M)

OI concentrations: Max pain $405 (0DTE), $415 (2DTE), $408 (5DTE); call wall $450-$575

Verdict: Spot $391 below max pain — risk of drift higher toward pin; resistance at call wall

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $410.00/$420.00 call spread
Sell 410/420 call spread to harvest premium from elevated IV, betting stock stays below 410.
Credit: $2.90-$3.55
Max loss: $6.45
BE: $413.55
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or at invalidation if spot breaches 405.
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $385.00/$375.00 put spread
Sell 385/375 put spread to collect premium from elevated IV, expecting stock above 385.
Credit: $2.83-$3.46
Max loss: $6.54
BE: $381.54
Mgmt: Take profit at 50% credit or if spot drops below 378.78.
#3
Covered call
Buy shares + sell 2026-07-10 $425.00 call
Buy shares and sell 425 call for income; stock ownership provides upside capture.
Credit: $4.70-$5.75
Max loss: Stock downside to $0 less call premium
BE: $391.61
Mgmt: Roll call if stock approaches 425 or close at 50% max gain.

Risk Alerts

!Spot below max pain $405, potential upward pin
!Call OI wall $450-$575 may cap rallies
!Negative dealer gamma could accelerate moves
!Early assignment risk for short call leg
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 10, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.