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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $381.70EOD only
Max Pain
$380.00
Next expiry Jul 27, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.47
1.7% from close
Price Gap
-1.70
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
51
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.44
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 24, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 9, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short premium near resistance
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $385 or above $450
Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 20

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
Average IV (40%) at ~2x VIX (20%), elevated
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Near-term IV elevated with call skew, suggesting upside risk or event activity

📊IV at 40% vs VIX 20, elevated 2x, favorable for premium selling
⚠️Pinning risk: positive GEX and max pain at $415-422

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Pinning ($+63.6M)

OI concentrations: Max pain pins: $415, $422, $420; call OI wall $450-$575

Verdict: High pinning probability due to positive GEX and concentrated OI near max pain

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $420.00/$425.00 call spread
Sell 420/425 call spread to collect premium from high call skew, defining risk at resistance.
Credit: $1.35-$1.65
Max loss: $3.35
BE: $421.65
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot breaks above 425.
#2
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-02 $385.00/$380.00 put spread
Sell 385/380 put spread to collect premium from elevated IV near support, with bullish skew.
Credit: $1.06-$1.29
Max loss: $3.71
BE: $383.71
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot breaks below 385.
#3
Call calendar
Sell 2026-07-17 $420.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $420.00 call
Sell near-term call, buy back-month call to capture IV decay, neutral outlook.
Debit: $9.00-$11.00
Max loss: $11.00
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Close at profit target or if spot moves significantly away from 420.

Risk Alerts

!High call skew may precede upward move if pinning fails
!Negative dealer net premium suggests put writing risk
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.