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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $532.95EOD only
Max Pain
$532.50
Next expiry Oct 23, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.95
1.7% from close
Price Gap
-0.45
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
18
Low premium
P/C OI
0.57
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Oct 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Oct 21, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 8, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 8, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Bullish Put Credit Spread
Invalidation: Break below 392.74 or VIX spike above 25
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
Avg IV ~34% vs VIX 18.92, elevated but front-week IV low (5.25)
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Steep contango 0->2 DTE, then flattish to slight decline

📈Dealer net long gamma $94.4M, bullish flow
📌Max pain $425-$428, spot below, pinning likely
⚠️Call OI wall $450-$575 caps upside

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Pinning ($+94.4M)

OI concentrations: No meaningful put OI below spot; max pain $425-$428; call wall $450-$575

Verdict: Low pin risk; spot near max pain, positive gamma supports pinning

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-02 $395.00/$390.00 put spread
Sell $395 put, buy $390 put for net credit. Expresses bullish view with downside protection.
Credit: $1.08-$1.32
Max loss: $3.68
BE: $393.68
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if spot breaks below $392.74.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-02 $390.00/$385.00 put wing and $445.00/$450.00 call wing
Sell $390 put and $445 call, buy wings for protection. Neutral range-bound play.
Credit: $1.38-$1.68
Max loss: $3.32
BE: 388.32 / 446.68
Mgmt: Manage at 50% profit or adjust if spot approaches wings.

Risk Alerts

!Spot 3.1% below max pain, drift-up risk
!VIX near 19, room for compression but elevated IV
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.