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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $402.29EOD only
Max Pain
$392.50
Next expiry Jul 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.50
2.4% from close
Price Gap
-9.79
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
46
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.44
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 20, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 5, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 5, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Bull Put Spread
Invalidation: Break below $428 max pain
Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 22

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
Elevated vs VIX
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end IV spike due to event; longer-term IV normal

📉Call OI wall $450-$625 provides resistance
📍Max pain pinning near $428-$432
🟢Dealer gamma +$105.9M supports pinning

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Below

GEX regime: Pinning ($+105.9M)

OI concentrations: Max pain at $428, $432, $430; call wall $450-$625

Verdict: Pinning risk elevated due to high OI and positive dealer gamma

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-12 $397.50/$395.00 put spread
Sell 397.5/395 put spread for credit, targeting IV contraction and pinning.
Credit: $0.31-$0.38
Max loss: $2.12
BE: $397.12
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if spot breaches 396.9.
#2
Short strangle
Sell 2026-06-12 $397.50 put + sell $427.50 call
Sell 397.5 put and 427.5 call, collect premium for post-event IV crush.
Credit: $4.64-$5.67
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 391.83 / 433.17
Mgmt: Roll untested side or close before earnings to avoid gap risk.

Risk Alerts

!0 DTE IV spike event risk
!Spot below MP downward pressure
!Negative net premium dealer hedging
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 5, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.