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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $393.82EOD only
Max Pain
$395.00
Next expiry Jul 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.72
2.0% from close
Price Gap
+1.18
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
76
High premium
P/C OI
0.43
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 17, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 4, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 4, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness9 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Put Credit Spread
Invalidation: Spot < 2d support 422.11
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.5% from MP; +1 VIX 15

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV (36.9%) significantly above VIX (15.4%)
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end dip then upward sloping from 1 week out

📈Call IV > Put IV, bullish skew
📍Max pain pins at $430-$435 this week

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+254.1M)

OI concentrations: Max pain $430 (Jun5), $435 (Jun8), $430 (Jun10); call wall $450-$625

Verdict: Pinning expected near $430-$435

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $410.00/$400.00 put spread
Sell $410/$400 put spread to collect elevated IV premium with bullish stance.
Credit: $2.45-$3.00
Max loss: $7.00
BE: $407.00
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaches $408.12 invalidation; take profit at 50% max gain.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $410.00/$400.00 put wing and $460.00/$470.00 call wing
Sell $410/$400 put wing and $460/$470 call wing to profit from range-bound move.
Credit: $4.12-$5.03
Max loss: $4.97
BE: 404.97 / 465.03
Mgmt: Close if spot approaches outer wings; manage gamma risk near expiration.
#3
Covered call
Buy shares + sell 2026-07-17 $465.00 call
Buy shares and sell $465 call to generate income with upside limited at $465.
Credit: $5.56-$6.79
Max loss: Stock downside to $0 less call premium
BE: $421.26
Mgmt: Roll call if challenged or close at 21 DTE; set stop-loss below support.

Risk Alerts

!Heavy call OI $450+ may cap rallies
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 4, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.