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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $384.36EOD only
Max Pain
$380.00
Next expiry Jul 10, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.27
1.6% from close
Price Gap
-4.36
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
41
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.43
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 9, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 26, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness9 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Short put credit spreads
Invalidation: Spot < $411.39
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV 34% vs VIX 17, elevated skew
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end spikes to 27% by 3dte; longer-term ~28-32%

📈GEX +$182.8M, put/call vol 0.42, bullish flow
🎯Max pain $415, spot at MP, gamma pinning

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+182.8M)

OI concentrations: Call OI wall $450-$575; no deep put OI

Verdict: High pin risk at $415 due to concentrated gamma and max pain across multiple expirations

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $400.00/$390.00 put spread
Sell 400/390 put spread to capture premium from elevated IV.
Credit: $1.94-$2.37
Max loss: $7.63
BE: $397.63
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot <415 before earnings.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $395.00/$385.00 put wing and $440.00/$450.00 call wing
Sell 395/385 put wing and 440/450 call wing to collect premium.
Credit: $3.63-$4.44
Max loss: $5.56
BE: 390.56 / 444.44
Mgmt: Adjust wings if spot breaks 400 or 435.
#3
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $435.00/$445.00 call spread
Sell 435/445 call spread to profit from capped rally.
Credit: $1.76-$2.15
Max loss: $7.85
BE: $437.15
Mgmt: Roll if spot exceeds 440.

Risk Alerts

!High pin risk at $415 due to max pain across expirations
!Call OI wall $450-$575 may limit upside
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.