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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $481.63EOD only
Max Pain
$485.00
Next expiry Aug 19, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.37
1.1% from close
Price Gap
+3.37
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
30
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.50
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Aug 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Aug 18, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 20, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness9 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Put Credit Spread
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $420 or VIX > 20
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV at 33% vs VIX 17: elevated premiums
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Steep backwardation from 0DTE to 2DTE, then contango

📈Bullish flow and GEX support selling puts near MP

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+321.7M)

OI concentrations: Max pain at $420, $415, $410; heavy call OI $450-$625

Verdict: High pinning risk, spot at MP with strong GEX

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $395.00/$380.00 put spread
Sell $395/$380 put spread to collect premium with support at $410.
Credit: $2.02-$2.48
Max loss: $12.52
BE: $392.52
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $420 or VIX spikes above 20.
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $395.00/$380.00 put wing and $455.00/$475.00 call wing
Sell $395/$380 put wing and $455/$475 call wing.
Credit: $3.84-$4.70
Max loss: $15.30
BE: 390.30 / 459.70
Mgmt: Adjust wings if spot nears $410 or $455; close before earnings.
#3
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $455.00/$475.00 call spread
Sell $455/$475 call spread to profit from time decay and capped upside.
Credit: $1.82-$2.22
Max loss: $17.78
BE: $457.22
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks above $441.38 or VIX rises.

Risk Alerts

!0DTE ATM IV 7.4% but skew wide; watch for gap moves
!No gamma flip; put OI concentration minimal below spot
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.