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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $417.42EOD only
Max Pain
$417.50
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.05
1.4% from close
Price Gap
+0.08
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
0.46
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness9 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Short Put Vertical
Invalidation: Spot closes below $396 support
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.0% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV 33.9% > VIX 18%, premium favorable
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-end elevated (25-32%), dip at 7d, then rise; backwardation in 1d-3d

🎯Max Pain pin @ $418 (1d) aligns with strong GEX $+215M

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+215.2M)

OI concentrations: Max pain: $418(1d), $412(3d), $408(7d); call wall $450-$625

Verdict: High pin risk from gamma pinning offers premium opportunity but also tail risk of sharp reversal

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $395.00/$390.00 put spread
Sell put above support, buy protection
Credit: $1.01-$1.24
Max loss: $3.76
BE: $393.76
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if spot breaks 396
#2
Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $395.00/$385.00 put wing and $445.00/$460.00 call wing
Sell wings at support/resistance
Credit: $3.69-$4.50
Max loss: $10.50
BE: 390.50 / 449.50
Mgmt: Offset wings on breakout
#3
Cash-secured put
Sell 2026-06-18 $390.00 cash-secured put
Sell put at support level
Credit: $3.71-$4.54
Max loss: $385.46
BE: $385.46
Mgmt: Roll if spot nears strike

Risk Alerts

!High pin risk exposes to sharp reversal risk
!Aggressive sizing amplifies loss potential
!Earnings passed; monitor macro catalysts
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.