base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.6% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Term structure: Near-term spike at 2d ATM (26.1%), then decline to 24% at 5d, then gradual rise to ~29% by 30d; overall term structure normal but with intraweek anomaly.
Spot vs MP: At
GEX regime: Pinning ($+56.6M)
OI concentrations: Call OI wall $450-$575; no put concentration below spot. Max pain pins at $408, $405, $410.
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-05 $385.00/$380.00 put spread
Sells OTM puts at support to capture elevated premium with defined risk.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot nears support.
#2Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-12 $385.00/$380.00 put wing and $425.00/$430.00 call wing
Sells OTM put and call wings to profit from range-bound move.
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or if spot breaks support/resistance.
#3Call credit spread
Sell 2026-06-05 $430.00/$435.00 call spread
Sells OTM calls just above resistance to profit from limited upside.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or if spot approaches resistance.
!Elevated near-term IV (2d) relative to further expirations suggests event risk.
!IV crush risk post-event could erode premium quickly.
!Tail risk: sharp move beyond support/resistance invalidates thesis.