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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $417.42EOD only
Max Pain
$417.50
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.05
1.4% from close
Price Gap
+0.08
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
0.46
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Selling premium with bullish bias
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $400 support
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV (36.4%) well above VIX (18.4), elevated premium environment
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Term structure upward sloping from 0DTE to 3DTE, then flat; near-term IV elevated

📈Heavy call volume (P/C vol 0.23) supports bullish flow
🛡️GEX +$405M, dealer long gamma provides stability near $400

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+405.4M)

OI concentrations: Max pain $400 (0DTE), $408 (May18), $405 (May20). Call OI wall at $450-$625. No put concentration within 30% below spot.

Verdict: Low pin risk due to high GEX and call wall above; spot above max pain, but OTM puts thin.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-05 $410.00/$400.00 put spread
Sells $410/$400 put spread to capture theta and IV premium with low tail risk.
Credit: $2.50-$3.05
Max loss: $6.95
BE: $406.95
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or at invalidation level $404.55.
#2
Cash-secured put
Sell 2026-06-05 $400.00 cash-secured put
Sells $400 put to collect elevated premium with bullish bias.
Credit: $3.53-$4.32
Max loss: $395.68
BE: $395.68
Mgmt: Roll if tested, or close at 50% gain to limit exposure.

Risk Alerts

!Spot 5.5% above MP may gravitate towards $400
!High near-term IV may collapse after event
!Market downtrend (SPY -1.2%) could accelerate
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.