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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $418.07EOD only

Max Pain

$400.00

Next expiry Apr 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.32

1.8% from close

Price Gap

-18.07

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.45

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 20, 2026 close

MSFT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 21, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

8 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

Front-week IVs exceed VIX (VIX 19.5; ATM 1d IV 24.9) reflecting short-term put demand

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Put‑rich front week (24–48h) with elevated 10–17d term IVs; longer term ~31–34%

📌Max‑pain cluster $410–$400; dealer GEX supports pinning

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+326.5M)

OI concentrations: Max‑pain nodes at $410 (4/22) and $400 (4/24,4/27); call wall above $450

Verdict: Moderate pin risk concentrated at $400–$410 around expiries 4/22–4/27

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-05-15 $410.00/$405.00 put spread

Sell 410 / buy 405 put for $1.10 credit; max loss $3.90 per spread, breakeven 408.90. Edge: elevated short-dated put IV and >1.5x skew vs farther-dated options.

Credit: $1.46-$1.79

Max loss: $3.21

BE: $408.21

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of credit collected; close/roll if underlying <405 or IV rises >10 implied vol points (from 38% to ≥48%) or spread midpoint widens >$0.60.

Iron condor

Sell 2026-05-15 $410.00/$402.50 put wing and $445.00/$450.00 call wing

Sell 410/402.5 put fly and 445/450 call spread for $1.60 credit; max loss ~ $8.40; wings sized to balance delta ~0.10 each side.

Credit: $3.44-$4.21

Max loss: $3.29

BE: 405.79 / 449.21

Mgmt: Close or adjust if underlying <410 or >445, or if IV moves ±8 pts; reduce width or roll wings outward if underlying approaches a wing within 3 trading days. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Covered call

Buy shares + sell 2026-05-15 $445.00 call

Buy 100 shares, sell May15 445C for $2.20; upside capped at 445, dividend capture preserved.

Credit: $8.08-$9.87

Max loss: Stock downside to $0 less call premium

BE: $414.29

Mgmt: Let assignment occur at 445 or buy back call if stock drops >4% or IV rises >8 pts; roll up if you want more upside exposure.

Risk Alerts

!Rapid IV spike or market‑wide risk‑off

!Price gap through $395 support

!Concentrated exercises near $400–$410 causing short‑squeeze dynamics

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 21, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.