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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $516.17EOD only
Max Pain
$495.00
Next expiry Sep 28, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.68
1.5% from close
Price Gap
-21.17
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
15
Low premium
P/C OI
0.52
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 25, 2026 close
MSFT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 14, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness9 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Put Credit Spread
Invalidation: Spot below $405
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.1% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV 35.9% vs VIX 17.3
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Dip at 4d then contango; long-term IV stable around 32%

📈IV elevated vs VIX: rich premium opportunity
📊Term structure contango after 6d
🏦Strong positive GEX $+163.9M, low put/call OI ratio

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+163.9M)

OI concentrations: Max pain $405/$410; call OI wall $450-$575

Verdict: Spot above max pain, low put pin risk; call wall caps upside

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $400.00/$385.00 put spread
Sell $400/$385 put spread to capture elevated premium with 76 days to earnings.
Credit: $4.30-$5.25
Max loss: $9.75
BE: $394.75
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings if IV collapses.

Risk Alerts

!No gamma flip below spot; call OI wall may limit rallies
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.