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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $416.03EOD only

Max Pain

$415.00

Next expiry May 27, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.63

1.1% from close

Price Gap

-1.03

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.46

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 26, 2026 close

MSFT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Confidence:

8 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19.12

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

Avg IV 35.9% vs VIX 19.12 — underlying IV is rich to equity VIX but near-term ATM IV is in the mid-20s (e.g. 2d 24.7%, 7d 25.4%)

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Near-term IV (2–11d) ~24–28% while ~18–39d expirations run 32–42% (humped) — opportunity to sell shorter-dated or use calendar/debit spreads buying mid-dated vol

💰Avg IV 35.9% with short‑dated IV ~25% and mid‑dated IV 32–42% — good supply of premium in 30–45 DTE window

🔁Term structure is humped (mid-month vol rich) — favors selling spreads in the 30–45 DTE band or calendars pairing cheap front‑week

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Spot $384.37 is above max pain $370 by 3.9% (Pre-Computed: Spot vs MP: Above)

GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$213.2M) — strong positive dealer gamma concentrated near spot

OI concentrations: Call OI wall structural $405–$575; near-term call flow concentrated at $380/$375/$400 (net call flow). GEX concentration strongest at $385 (+$18.3M), $380 (+$9.1M), $382.50 (+$7.3M).

Verdict: Favorable — strong positive GEX and pin magnets at $380–$385 favor collecting premium on defined-risk credit spreads and short calls; watch for dealer pinning if price stalls near 380–385

Premium Opportunities

call credit spread

Sell 395 / buy 405 calls 2026-05-15 (32 DTE)

Mid‑dated IV (37.2% ATM at 32d) is rich relative to front week; dealer pinning around 380–385 and strong call OI wall at 405–575 make selling upside defined-risk spreads attractive. 395 is ~+2.8% above spot — reasonable buffer inside 1‑week EM upper bound $395.72.

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $8.90

BE: $396.10

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–65% of max credit; roll out and up if short strike tested and still within structural resistance (roll to 405/415 May29 or widen to keep net credit); cut losses if underlying closes >$405 (short strike) or if position reaches 70% of max loss

cash-secured put (CSP)

Sell 370 put 2026-05-15 (32 DTE) cash-secured

Max pain and multiple short‑dated put clusters sit at/near $370; positive GEX pinning and put OI support around 365–372.5 make selling a slightly OTM CSP a probability play to collect premium and potentially acquire MSFT at a ~4% discount to spot (after credit).

Credit: $3.50-$4.50

Max loss: 370 - credit_low (≈366.50) if assigned — equivalent to ~$366.50 per share net cost basis

BE: $366.50

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–75% of collected premium; if price trades below $370 and shows trend, consider rolling down to 360/355 (buy back and re-sell further OTM) or close if assigned and you don't want stock; cut loss on sustained close below $373.02 (1w EM lower guardrail)

iron condor

Sell 372.50/367.50 put spread + sell 395/405 call spread 2026-05-22 (39 DTE)

Uses 30–45 DTE term where mid-dated IV is elevated; put wing sits inside the lower EM guardrail ($373.02) but benefits from pinning (GEX positive) near 380–385; call wing aligns with structural call OI starting at 395–405. Defined risk both sides suits neutral-to-modestly-bullish flow.

Credit: $1.60-$2.00

Max loss: $8.40

BE: Put side ≈370.90 / Call side ≈397.60 (short strikes ± credit)

Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; if either short strike is tested, tighten wings (roll tested wing out 1–2 strikes and take lower credit) or close if underlying closes beyond the short strike and shows momentum. If either side reaches 60–70% of max loss, close that side and hedge remaining exposure.

calendar (debit) — buy mid / sell near

Buy 380 call 2026-05-29 and sell 380 call 2026-05-01 (18d short / 46d long) — 380 strike

Term structure: short 18d ATM IV 42.3% (May1) is rich relative to longer May29 (46d ATM ~35.1%); selling the near leg and buying the mid-dated provides front-week theta capture while owning mid-dated vega — works when spot stays near 380 and dealers pin. Use when you prefer lower directional risk and want to harvest expensive near-term vol.

Debit: $0.90-$1.50

Max loss: $1.50

Mgmt: Close short leg prior to any close >$385 or if short‑leg expiry approaches and delta >0.45; take profit on the calendar if spread value doubles or if underlying moves out of the central ±1‑week EM band ($373–$396). Cut losses if front week vol collapses and calendar value decays >50% or if underlying breaks out beyond $405 or below $373

Risk Alerts

!Earnings on 2026-04-29 — outside 2‑week window but within the 32–46 DTE setups (May expirations). Close or de-risk positions before earnings if you do not want vega exposure into the print.

!Large positive GEX (+$213.2M) can pin price but also accelerate moves if dealers get forced hedges; defined-risk structures preferred over naked short calls/puts.

!Call OI wall structural $405–$575 — heavy call interest can cap upside but also create sticky levels; if price breaks above 405, short call risk increases quickly.

!Unusual activity in near-dated $380–$382.50 strikes (heavy call flow and elevated volumes) — can cause short-term squeezes; avoid naked short calls through high-flow strikes.

!Breakout accelerants at deep downside strikes (e.g., $342.50 and lower) mean a fast downside move would hurt wide naked wings — prefer defined-risk spreads and CSPs that are cash-secured.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.