base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (Pinning, GEX +296.8M); +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18.36
Term structure: Short-dated (1–10d) IV is low-20s; front-to-intermediate shows a hump at ~17d (ATM 43.1%) then settles ~33–37% in 30–45 DTE — favorable for selling term premium/rolls and calendars where you collect front premium.
Spot vs MP: Spot $393.11 is Above Max Pain (nearest MPs $377.50–$380.00) — ~4.1% above short-term MPs
GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$296.8M) — dealer gamma is strongly positive and will act as a pin magnet near concentrated strikes
OI concentrations: Large call OI walls well above spot ($420–$575 structural call wall). Near-term GEX concentrations: +$34.5M at $390.00, +$21.7M at $400.00, +$14.3M at $395.00 — these are magnetic within ±3% of spot.
#1cash-secured put (CSP)
Sell 2026-05-15 $380 put (31 DTE)
Pinning regime with strong GEX at $390/$395/$400 and spot 4.1% above MP supports short puts; $380 is inside 1-week/2-week EM and close to dealer pin support. 31 DTE captures elevated intermediate IV (31–37%) while giving time to collect theta.
Mgmt: Take 65% of max profit; roll down-and-out by 1–2 strikes or widen to a vertical if price undercuts $382.51 (1-week EM lower). Close/flip if stock closes below $375 for two consecutive sessions.
#2put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $385 / buy $375 put spread (31 DTE)
Defined-risk way to play the same pin; 385 short put is near a small put OI cluster and within EM bounds. Spread collects meaningful credit with limited downside (width $10) while GEX pinning reduces probability of large gap down.
Mgmt: Close at 50–65% of max profit; roll down 1 strike and out ~14–21 days to expiry if tested; close if price breaks and closes below $382.51 or if short put delta > -0.30 (adjust to limit assignment risk).
#3iron condor (defined-risk wings)
Sell 2026-05-22 (38 DTE) 395/397.5 call spread and 365/362.5 put spread (sell 395C/ buy 397.5C; sell 365P/ buy 362.5P)
GEX pinning and wide EM bounds (1-week $382.51–$403.71, 2-week $363.18–$423.03) allow a balanced iron condor ~30–45 DTE that collects good premium with defined risk. Use the put wing to lean into bullish flow while call wing sits above immediate pin magnets.
Mgmt: Take 50% of credit as profit target; if either short strike is touched, tighten or buy back that side; for put side touches consider rolling down and widening call side to maintain net credit. Abort/close if spot closes outside the 1-week EM on a daily basis.
#4calendar (diagonal) — sell front-week, buy 31–45 DTE
Sell 2026-04-17 (3 DTE) $395 call, buy 2026-05-15 (31 DTE) $395 call (calendar)
Front-week IV is depressed to low- to mid-20s while intermediate-dated IV is higher (31–37%); selling the near-week call vs longer-dated call collects front-time decay and benefits from pinning near $395/$400. Use when you expect range-bound action into next expiry.
Mgmt: Exit front leg if it finishes ITM with <1 day to expiry (to avoid assignment); close entire calendar at 50% of max debit decay capture or roll the short weekly out if calendars are profitable. Avoid holding through the May earnings (2026-04-29) if position would leave you long gamma into the print.
!Max Pain cluster below spot (nearest MPs $377.50 on 2026-04-15 and $380.00 on 2026-04-17) — short puts can be pin-targeted but beware rapid mean reversion into MPs.
!Large positive GEX (+$296.8M) — while pinning helps premium sellers, a sudden flip (dealer hedging unwind) can cause quick momentum moves that threaten one-sided credit positions.
!Unusual volume around front-week strikes (significant flow at 397.50C, 395C, 400C on 2026-04-15) — elevated weekly call flow could increase short-term pin/assignment risk for front-week short calls.
!Earnings 2026-04-29 (15 days) — not within 2 weeks but close enough that any positions overlapping May expirations should be monitored; avoid naked short through the print.
!IV term bump at 2026-05-01 (ATM 43.1%) — selling into this hump is attractive but exposes you to IV re-pricing if market-moving news arrives before May expirations.