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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $393.11EOD only

Max Pain

$377.50

Next expiry Apr 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.95

1.3% from close

Price Gap

-15.61

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.43

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 14, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 14, 2026 close

MSFT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

8 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (Pinning, GEX +296.8M); +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18.36

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

ATM IV (near-dated) 21.5%–27.6% vs VIX 18.36 — spot/near-dated IV is modestly elevated to VIX but term (17–31d) rich (ATM 43.1% at 17d then 37.4% at 31d)

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Short-dated (1–10d) IV is low-20s; front-to-intermediate shows a hump at ~17d (ATM 43.1%) then settles ~33–37% in 30–45 DTE — favorable for selling term premium/rolls and calendars where you collect front premium.

💰Average IV 36.7% with near-term ATM from 21.5% (1d) to 43.1% (17d) — term is bumpy, giving sellers choice of front-week income or 30–45 DTE credit

📈VIX 18.36 is low-relative to stock IV pockets, meaning MSFT-specific spread is usable for premium sellers

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Spot $393.11 is Above Max Pain (nearest MPs $377.50–$380.00) — ~4.1% above short-term MPs

GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$296.8M) — dealer gamma is strongly positive and will act as a pin magnet near concentrated strikes

OI concentrations: Large call OI walls well above spot ($420–$575 structural call wall). Near-term GEX concentrations: +$34.5M at $390.00, +$21.7M at $400.00, +$14.3M at $395.00 — these are magnetic within ±3% of spot.

Verdict: Favorable — strong positive GEX and multiple pin magnets (390/395/400) make selling puts/put spreads attractive so long as price stays above 1-week lower EM ($382.51). Credit sellers benefit from pinning; monitor for large flow that shifts OI.

Premium Opportunities

cash-secured put (CSP)

Sell 2026-05-15 $380 put (31 DTE)

Pinning regime with strong GEX at $390/$395/$400 and spot 4.1% above MP supports short puts; $380 is inside 1-week/2-week EM and close to dealer pin support. 31 DTE captures elevated intermediate IV (31–37%) while giving time to collect theta.

Credit: $2.20-$2.80

Max loss: $377.80

BE: $377.80

Mgmt: Take 65% of max profit; roll down-and-out by 1–2 strikes or widen to a vertical if price undercuts $382.51 (1-week EM lower). Close/flip if stock closes below $375 for two consecutive sessions.

put credit spread

Sell 2026-05-15 $385 / buy $375 put spread (31 DTE)

Defined-risk way to play the same pin; 385 short put is near a small put OI cluster and within EM bounds. Spread collects meaningful credit with limited downside (width $10) while GEX pinning reduces probability of large gap down.

Credit: $1.00-$1.40

Max loss: $8.60

BE: $384.00

Mgmt: Close at 50–65% of max profit; roll down 1 strike and out ~14–21 days to expiry if tested; close if price breaks and closes below $382.51 or if short put delta > -0.30 (adjust to limit assignment risk).

iron condor (defined-risk wings)

Sell 2026-05-22 (38 DTE) 395/397.5 call spread and 365/362.5 put spread (sell 395C/ buy 397.5C; sell 365P/ buy 362.5P)

GEX pinning and wide EM bounds (1-week $382.51–$403.71, 2-week $363.18–$423.03) allow a balanced iron condor ~30–45 DTE that collects good premium with defined risk. Use the put wing to lean into bullish flow while call wing sits above immediate pin magnets.

Credit: $1.00-$1.60

Max loss: $3.40

BE: 362.60 / 396.40

Mgmt: Take 50% of credit as profit target; if either short strike is touched, tighten or buy back that side; for put side touches consider rolling down and widening call side to maintain net credit. Abort/close if spot closes outside the 1-week EM on a daily basis.

calendar (diagonal) — sell front-week, buy 31–45 DTE

Sell 2026-04-17 (3 DTE) $395 call, buy 2026-05-15 (31 DTE) $395 call (calendar)

Front-week IV is depressed to low- to mid-20s while intermediate-dated IV is higher (31–37%); selling the near-week call vs longer-dated call collects front-time decay and benefits from pinning near $395/$400. Use when you expect range-bound action into next expiry.

Debit: $0.35-$0.70

Max loss: $70.00

BE: complex (calendar; monitor mid/roll price)

Mgmt: Exit front leg if it finishes ITM with <1 day to expiry (to avoid assignment); close entire calendar at 50% of max debit decay capture or roll the short weekly out if calendars are profitable. Avoid holding through the May earnings (2026-04-29) if position would leave you long gamma into the print.

Risk Alerts

!Max Pain cluster below spot (nearest MPs $377.50 on 2026-04-15 and $380.00 on 2026-04-17) — short puts can be pin-targeted but beware rapid mean reversion into MPs.

!Large positive GEX (+$296.8M) — while pinning helps premium sellers, a sudden flip (dealer hedging unwind) can cause quick momentum moves that threaten one-sided credit positions.

!Unusual volume around front-week strikes (significant flow at 397.50C, 395C, 400C on 2026-04-15) — elevated weekly call flow could increase short-term pin/assignment risk for front-week short calls.

!Earnings 2026-04-29 (15 days) — not within 2 weeks but close enough that any positions overlapping May expirations should be monitored; avoid naked short through the print.

!IV term bump at 2026-05-01 (ATM 43.1%) — selling into this hump is attractive but exposes you to IV re-pricing if market-moving news arrives before May expirations.

Read the Theta analysis for MSFT for 2026-04-14. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.