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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $441.31EOD only

Max Pain

$442.50

Next expiry Jun 3, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.85

1.8% from close

Price Gap

+1.19

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.45

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 2, 2026 close

MSFT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

ATM IV (16d / 2026-05-01) 45.3% vs VIX 18.17 — term vol is rich, near-term IV (2-9d) ≈ 29–31% while >2-week vol jumps to mid-40s.

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Very steep front-to-back skew: near-week ATM 29–31% (2026-04-17/24) then a sharp rise to 45.3% at 16d (2026-05-01) — rich back-months around the May 1 boundary (earnings horizon).

💰Average IV 39.5% with 16d ATM 45.3% gives sellers rich theta to collect

⚠️Very low quoted IV on same-day expiries (0d ATM 7.7%) — watch expirations with artificially low mid-day prints

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+338.4M)

OI concentrations: GEX pin magnets at $410 (+$22.5M, -0.3% from spot), $400 (+$19.4M, -2.7%), $415 (+$18.3M, +0.9%) and $405 (+$16.5M, -1.5%); Max pain short-term cluster $385/$380.

Verdict: Favorable — positive GEX (+$338.4M) and concentrated GEX near $410–$405 create a pinning environment that supports selling premium (puts and defined put spreads) so long as spot remains above the EM guardrail region.

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-05-15 $390.00/$375.00 put spread

Uses supportive pinning regime and elevated IV to collect premium.

Credit: $3.29-$4.02

Max loss: $10.98

BE: $385.98

Mgmt: Close at 65% profit; exit on close <$402.47

Iron condor

Sell 2026-04-24 $395.00/$380.00 put wing and $430.00/$450.00 call wing

Sell short-dated iron condor with short 395 put and short 430 call (buy 380/450 wings) to collect premium inside the broader 2-week expected move while staying defined-risk.

Credit: $2.91-$3.56

Max loss: $16.44

BE: 391.44 / 433.56

Mgmt: Tight risk controls: close or hedge if price approaches either short strike or close below $402.47; cut size into earnings.

Put calendar

Sell 2026-05-01 $400.00 put / buy 2026-07-17 $400.00 put

Sell May-01 put, buy Jul-17 put same strike to collect term premium and limit downside into earnings.

Debit: $8.39-$10.26

Max loss: $10.26

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Close front leg into any short-dated IV pop; roll long leg wider if downside accelerates.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings 2026-04-29 (14d) — avoid naked short positions that span the print; prefer defined-risk or close/roll before earnings.

!Unusual concentrated near-dated call flows and very large vol on 4/15 expiries (heavy call activity at $410–$415) — potential pin/stop-run behavior into short-dated expiries.

!Gamma flip N/A but large positive GEX (+$338.4M) — while this pins near-term, it can steepen moves if dealers unwind hedges quickly; monitor intraday flows.

!IV term shock risk: sharp volatility re-pricing between near-week (~30%) and 16d (45.3%) — selling across that boundary without matching expirations exposes to large IV moves.

!Call OI wall $445–$575 creates asymmetric upside resistance — selling deep upside calls can be attractive, but strong bullish flow could still gap through these levels.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.