base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Term structure: Very steep front-to-back skew: near-week ATM 29–31% (2026-04-17/24) then a sharp rise to 45.3% at 16d (2026-05-01) — rich back-months around the May 1 boundary (earnings horizon).
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+338.4M)
OI concentrations: GEX pin magnets at $410 (+$22.5M, -0.3% from spot), $400 (+$19.4M, -2.7%), $415 (+$18.3M, +0.9%) and $405 (+$16.5M, -1.5%); Max pain short-term cluster $385/$380.
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $390.00/$375.00 put spread
Uses supportive pinning regime and elevated IV to collect premium.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit; exit on close <$402.47
#2Iron condor
Sell 2026-04-24 $395.00/$380.00 put wing and $430.00/$450.00 call wing
Sell short-dated iron condor with short 395 put and short 430 call (buy 380/450 wings) to collect premium inside the broader 2-week expected move while staying defined-risk.
Mgmt: Tight risk controls: close or hedge if price approaches either short strike or close below $402.47; cut size into earnings.
#3Put calendar
Sell 2026-05-01 $400.00 put / buy 2026-07-17 $400.00 put
Sell May-01 put, buy Jul-17 put same strike to collect term premium and limit downside into earnings.
Mgmt: Close front leg into any short-dated IV pop; roll long leg wider if downside accelerates.
!Earnings 2026-04-29 (14d) — avoid naked short positions that span the print; prefer defined-risk or close/roll before earnings.
!Unusual concentrated near-dated call flows and very large vol on 4/15 expiries (heavy call activity at $410–$415) — potential pin/stop-run behavior into short-dated expiries.
!Gamma flip N/A but large positive GEX (+$338.4M) — while this pins near-term, it can steepen moves if dealers unwind hedges quickly; monitor intraday flows.
!IV term shock risk: sharp volatility re-pricing between near-week (~30%) and 16d (45.3%) — selling across that boundary without matching expirations exposes to large IV moves.
!Call OI wall $445–$575 creates asymmetric upside resistance — selling deep upside calls can be attractive, but strong bullish flow could still gap through these levels.