Term structure: Significant IV hump at May expirations (~37%), elevated near-term IV for weekly expirations.
Spot vs MP: Above max pain by 6.7% (spot $373.46 vs MP $350)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$63.1M — mean-reverting)
OI concentrations: Massive OI in far OTM calls ($575, $625). Near-term, watch $350 (MP), $370-$375 (3/27 & 3/25 MP), and $387.50 (4/17 MP).
#1put spread
Sell $362.50/$357.50 put spread for 2026-04-17 expiration (15 DTE)
Strikes align with key near-term max pain levels ($362.50 for 3/30, $365 for 4/01/02). Positive GEX and spot well above provide a strong buffer. Sells into elevated near-term IV (26.7%).
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if MSFT closes below $365. Roll down/out if tested, but manage aggressively given short DTE.
#2iron condor
Sell $360/$355P x $390/$395C for 2026-05-01 expiration (29 DTE)
Captures the peak IV in the term structure (37.2% ATM). Range ($355-$390) is wide relative to expected move (±$30.50) and aligns with key max pain levels ($350, $387.50). Positive GEX supports range-bound action.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently; roll tested side outward. Close entire position if spot breaches either short strike.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $365 put for 2026-05-01 expiration (29 DTE)
Leverages the peak IV in the term structure (37.2% ATM). Strike is below current spot and aligns with multiple near-term max pain levels ($365 for 4/01/02, $367.50 for 4/06), offering a ~2.3% buffer. Suitable for those willing to take assignment.
Mgmt: Close at 70% max profit. Roll down/out at 21 DTE if not profitable. Be prepared to accept shares if assigned.
#4call credit spread
Sell $390/$395 call spread for 2026-04-17 expiration (15 DTE)
Hedges against the mixed flow regime (net premium -$834.5M) by selling upside. The $390 strike aligns with the 4/17 max pain and is just above the expected move high ($389.36).
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if MSFT closes above $388.
!Earnings on 2026-04-29: Close all non-directional premium positions well before this date. IV will crush post-earnings.
!Mixed Flow Regime: Net premium flow is -$834.5M with P/C ratio 0.95, indicating slight institutional put buying bias. This is a headwind against a strong rally.
!Massive Far OTM Call OI: Huge open interest at $575+ calls could represent speculative long-dated bets or hedging, but creates negligible near-term pin risk.
!Unusual Put Activity: High volume in deep OTM puts (~$500) for April/May expirations. This is likely hedging, not a near-term directional signal, but monitor for a shift in downside skew.
!Reduced GEX: Positive GEX has decreased from +$129.5M to +$63.1M. While still pinning, the stabilizing force is weaker, increasing the risk of a break from the range.
!Key Invalidation: A sustained close below $362.50 (key near-term max pain and OI support) would threaten all put-side credit positions.