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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $411.22EOD only
Max Pain
$380.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.75
2.1% from close
Price Gap
-31.22
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.44
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 15, 2026 close
MSFT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Conviction
6.5

out of 10

6.5 because multiple near-term signals (GEX, concentrated call OI, institutional flow) coherently bias toward the upper guardrail, but the upcoming earnings event and max-pain topology create a material binary tail that can invalidate short-gamma/theta trades — enough alignment to trade the bias but not to be highly aggressive.

Where Perspectives Agree

Market structure favors a short-gamma, pin-to-upper-guardrail outcome over the next 1–2 weeks — dealer hedging, concentrated short-dated calls, and bullish flow all bias price toward the $410–$417 area while providing rich theta to sell into that magnet.

Where They Diverge

Earnings creates a direct incompatibility: the earnings persona assumes continued pinning but the earnings timing and term-structure risk makes a large IV reprice/binary swing likely that would wipe out short-premium strategies; similarly, directional optimism (magnet higher) conflicts with max-pain and longer-run mean-reversion signals that argue for a lower expiry level if earnings or flow turn.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell Apr 24 $387.50/$370.00 put spread for a net credit (theta persona) — defined-risk premium sell ahead of the expected pin, expires pre-earnings.

Key Risk

A decisive break and close below $387.50 on elevated volume (daily close beneath support) would flip dealer gamma/flow, invalidate the pin, and accelerate downside toward $370 short-term where stop cascades and put buying concentrate.

Read the AI Analyst Consensus for MSFT for 2026-04-15. This synthesis report combines directional, theta, flow, and earnings perspectives into one conviction view with setup, trigger, and invalidation context.