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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $393.11EOD only
Max Pain
$377.50
Next expiry Apr 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.95
1.3% from close
Price Gap
-15.61
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.43
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 14, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 14, 2026 close
MSFT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Conviction
6.5

out of 10

6.5 because concentrated GEX and bullish flow give a real short-term upward bias, but conviction is tempered by (1) the active max-pain sink 4–5% below spot that can reassert quickly, (2) compressed front-end IV and short-gamma risk that can flip flows violently, and (3) near-term macro event risk — any of which would degrade the pin and make the current setup fragile.

Where Perspectives Agree

Market positioning and dealer gamma create a bullish pin toward the $390–$400 corridor — front-end flows and concentrated call interest make upside the path of least resistance in the immediate expiries.

Where They Diverge

The dominant bullish pin conflicts with the persistent max-pain cluster around $375–$380: if short-dated flows unwind or a macro pullback hits, that max-pain zone would act as a strong magnet and directly negate the bullish continuation; additionally, heavy front-end short-gamma positioning means a sharp move (either direction) could force rapid repricing of short-dated vols, undermining static premium-selling plans.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell 2026-04-17 390/385 put spread for a net credit (defined-risk premium sale)

Key Risk

A decisive break and close below $375 within the front-week expiries (triggered by a broad market pullback or rapid front-end flow reversal) would flip dealer gamma to long, remove the pin, and accelerate downside toward ~$365–$360, invalidating the bullish thesis.

Read the AI Analyst Consensus for MSFT for 2026-04-14. This synthesis report combines directional, theta, flow, and earnings perspectives into one conviction view with setup, trigger, and invalidation context.