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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $450.24EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.85
1.7% from close
Price Gap
-35.24
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
37
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.46
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
MSFT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer ai consensus report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Conviction
6.5

out of 10

6.5 because concentrated GEX and bullish flow give a real short-term upward bias, but conviction is tempered by (1) the active max-pain sink 4–5% below spot that can reassert quickly, (2) compressed front-end IV and short-gamma risk that can flip flows violently, and (3) near-term macro event risk — any of which would degrade the pin and make the current setup fragile.

Where Perspectives Agree

Market positioning and dealer gamma create a bullish pin toward the $390–$400 corridor — front-end flows and concentrated call interest make upside the path of least resistance in the immediate expiries.

Where They Diverge

The dominant bullish pin conflicts with the persistent max-pain cluster around $375–$380: if short-dated flows unwind or a macro pullback hits, that max-pain zone would act as a strong magnet and directly negate the bullish continuation; additionally, heavy front-end short-gamma positioning means a sharp move (either direction) could force rapid repricing of short-dated vols, undermining static premium-selling plans.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell 2026-04-17 390/385 put spread for a net credit (defined-risk premium sale)

Key Risk

A decisive break and close below $375 within the front-week expiries (triggered by a broad market pullback or rapid front-end flow reversal) would flip dealer gamma to long, remove the pin, and accelerate downside toward ~$365–$360, invalidating the bullish thesis.

How to Use These Reports
This ai consensus reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.