thetaOwl

MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $450.24EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.85
1.7% from close
Price Gap
-35.24
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
37
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.46
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
MSFT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer ai consensus report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report
Conviction
6.0

out of 10

Score 6 because directional, flow and theta are aligned around a short-term pin and premium sale opportunity, but conviction is capped by two asymmetric risks: the multi-expiry max-pain/put-side lever that can flip the pin lower, and front-week expiries/any volatility repricing that can quickly make sold wings dangerous.

Where Perspectives Agree

Bullish pin into the mid-380s — dealer gamma positioning and net premium flow create a magnet near 385 that makes mean-reversion and short-term premium decay the highest-probability path.

Where They Diverge

Theta's recommendation to aggressively sell short-dated wings (iron condors/put spreads) conflicts with flow's concentrated, call-heavy buy-side pressure on the upside: heavy institutional call flow can blow past sold call wings and spike IVs, while the multi-expiry max-pain cluster below spot (370) presents an opposing structural downside pressure that would directly negate the pin if selling accelerates.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell 2026-05-01 375/370 put spread for ~ $0.50–$0.80 credit (defined-risk income)

Key Risk

A sustained break and close below $370 driven by accelerating put-buying/selling pressure would flip dealer gamma, remove the pin and trigger rapid downside toward the next structural support (~$358), invalidating the bullish pin and premium-selling thesis.

How to Use These Reports
This ai consensus reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.