thetaOwl

MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $450.24EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.85
1.7% from close
Price Gap
-35.24
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
37
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.46
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
MSFT AI Consensus Report
Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer ai consensus report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report
Conviction
6.0

out of 10

Score 6 because GEX and current positioning create a real pin that favors mean-reversion into the mid-370s, but mixed institutional flow and concentrated OI on both sides plus short-dated expiry risk introduce material event/flow paths that can quickly invalidate the pin; that prevents a higher conviction.

Where Perspectives Agree

Dealer gamma and option positioning are collectively pinning MSFT into the mid-370s (magnet ~375–385), creating a neutral-to-bullish sticky regime where short-dated flow and GEX amplify moves toward that band.

Where They Diverge

Theta-selling and defined-risk premium strategies rely on pin stability and will be directly undermined if flow/institutional accumulation continues pushing delta and spot higher into the $385–400 OI wall; conversely, any near-term institutional buying flow that sustains an upside breakout would vaporize short premium — these are mutually exclusive outcomes. Additionally, the short-dated pin-release risk flagged by directional (4/10–4/13 expiries) conflicts with multi-week calendar/condor structures that assume pin persistence through those dates.

Top Trade
via theta

Sell 2026-04-24 $365/$360 put spread for a net credit (defined-risk theta play sized to collect premium while benefiting from the pin).

Key Risk

A decisive break and daily close below $365 (sustained under $365 into the next session) triggers dealer gamma unwind and concentrated hedge selling — this removes the pin and accelerates downside toward the $350–$358 support band, invalidating the short-premium/mean-reversion thesis.

How to Use These Reports
This ai consensus reflects the market close on April 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.