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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $372.97EOD only

Max Pain

$370.00

Next expiry Jun 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.28

2.2% from close

Price Gap

-2.97

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.41

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 26, 2026 close

MSFT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

MSFT pinned near $370 max pain with strong dealer gamma support. Normal vol and positive GEX favor range-bound drift, slightly bullish bias as spot near support. Mixed flow keeps conviction moderate.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 7: GEX positive pinning (+1), spot near MP (+1), VIX 18 (+1) offset by GEX/flow contradiction (-1).

Supports: Positive dealer gamma, spot at max pain, normal vol, low VIX.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, no clear catalyst.

📌Max pain $370; strong gamma pinning, spot within 0.4%

🟢Dealer GEX +$77.1M, long gamma supports range

⚠️Flow mixed; no dominant directional conviction

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal vol: IV likely in line with VIX 18, no compression or expansion signals.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: GEX +$77.1M, positive gamma with no flip nearby, supports mean reversion.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: Net flow unclear; P/C ratio unknown.

Spot vs Max Pain

At: Spot ~$370, at max pain pin for 6/29, magnetic attraction.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Pin action tied to monthly expiry 6/29; gamma flips after expiration.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$359.15$378.00

Gamma pin near $370; range $359-$378 with upside bias.

Next 1 week

$354.90$382.25

After pin release, drift toward upper guardrail $382.

Next 2 weeks

$345.12$392.02

Wider $345-$392; depends on earnings or catalyst.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $370 (2026-06-29); $365 (2026-07-01); $370 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $359.15/$378.00; 1w $354.90/$382.25

Support: $345.12

Resistance: $370.00 · $390.00 · $392.02

Structural: Max pain $370; support $345; resistance $370/$390/$392; 2d guardrails $359/$378.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+77.1M

DEX: +95.9M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$77.1M, DEX +95.9M shares, long gamma, pinning to $370.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV not provided; assumed normal vs VIX 18.

Term structure: No term structure data available; assume typical contango.

Skew: No skew data available; typically puts elevated near support.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Negative $47.8M net premium with put/call vol ratio 0.40 indicates net call selling, bearish bias.

Directional prints: 28.1 call 382.5 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 31.5x, likely sold calls (premium received) given negative net premium. Bearish signal. 4.9 put 367.5 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 28.1x, likely sold puts given net call selling bias; bearish. 9.4 call 372.5 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 27.1x, likely sold calls amplifying bearish flow from net premium.

Unusual: 4.6 call 370 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 26.2x, aggressive call volume but low IV suggests hedging or closing. 23.4 call 380 OTM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 21.9x, high IV likely short-dated volatility bets; direction unclear. 9.9 put 370 ITM 2026-06-29 — Vol/OI 14.7x, moderate put volume; potential hedging or bearish positioning.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break above $378 triggers short gamma squeeze potential.

!Break below $359 exposes downside to $345 support.

!Earnings or macro event could break pinning regime.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-31 $350.00/$345.00 put spread Why now: Positive GEX favors drift. Sell 350/345 put spread for premium with defined risk.	Break below 345 leads to max loss. Earnings gap could break support.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-31 $370.00/$385.00 call spread Why now: Spot near support at $370. Buy 370/385 call spread to benefit from drift higher.	Stay below 370 causes max loss of premium. Earnings miss could push lower.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-31 $370.00/$385.00 call spread

Buy 370/385 call spread to capture upside from current pinning zone to resistance.

Why this play: Aligns with slightly bullish bias and strong support near $370. Gains from upward drift with limited risk.

Debit: $5.27-$6.44

Max loss: $6.44

BE: $376.44

Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain if momentum fades; stop if spot breaks $359 support.

Traders expecting gradual upward move without significant downside.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-31 $350.00/$345.00 put spread

Sell 350/345 put spread to collect premium with high probability of profit.

Why this play: Defined risk near key support; benefits from positive gamma and pinning. Slightly bullish but capped upside.

Credit: $1.33-$1.62

Max loss: $3.38

BE: $348.38

Mgmt: Close if spot nears $359; roll or accept assignment if challenged.

Income-focused traders comfortable with bullish bias but wanting downside protection.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFMSFT holds above $370 and RSI(14) > 50 → Buy 2026-07-31 $370/$385 call spread within entry range $5.27-$6.44

IFMSFT remains above $359 guardrail and does not close below $359 → Sell 2026-07-31 $350/$345 put spread within entry range $1.33-$1.62

Exit Triggers

EXITMSFT breaks below $359 → Exit bull call spread to limit loss

EXITMSFT approaches $359 or declines to $345 → Close put credit spread to manage risk

Tactical Summary

MSFT near $370 max pain with positive GEX and slight bullish bias. Key support $345, resistance $370/$390. Favor bull call spread (370/385) on hold above $370 with RSI above 50, or put credit spread (350/345) if spot stays above $359. Manage exits on break of $359.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.